The Timberwolves held the Suns under 100 points twice, forced 34 turnovers, and limited Phoenix’s Big 3 through the first two games. How are they doing it?
There was an odd vibe amongst fans as they filed out of Target Center following the Minnesota Timberwolves’ 125-106 loss to the Phoenix Suns in Game 82 of the regular season. The loss broke a three-way tie between the Denver Nuggets, Oklahoma City Thunder, and the Wolves at the top of the Western Conference standings, which meant Minnesota fell to the third seed in the West after controlling the first seed for most of the regular season. Even though the three-seed is a commendable spot to finish, fans were still upset with how the regular season finale played out. Not only because it crushed the chances of finishing first, but it also meant the Wolves were matching up against the Suns in the first round, a team against whom Minnesota went 0-3 in the regular season.
Still, fans sold out Target Center and were incredibly loud for Game 1 on Saturday afternoon. Everyone in attendance received a complimentary white Playoff T-shirt along with a Howl Towel, which only added to the frenetic energy in the building. The fans were ready to witness another streak snapped — winning at home in round one, Game 1, which hasn’t happened since 2004 against the Denver Nuggets.
“We knew coming in that it was going to be important for us to really present ourselves,” Nickeil Alexander-Walker told the media postgame on Saturday. “The narrative coming into [Game 1] wasn’t in our favor, so the main thing, and the focus, was to do just that.”
Anthony Edwards led Minnesota to snap that streak with his 33 points (18 of which came in the third quarter), nine rebounds, and six assists on 14 of 24 from the floor and 4 of 8 from deep in 36 minutes. On top of Edwards’ megastar performance, the Wolves outworked the Suns in every way imaginable en route to their 120-95 win.
Ahead of Game 2, it felt as if Phoenix — equipped a Hall of Famer and two elite scorers — would bring a much more aggressive, balanced, and focused effort to the plate. After all, Head Coach Frank Vogel’s team didn’t come to Minnesota to win Game 1; they came to win one game.
However, emotions got in the way, and that never came to be.
The Timberwolves outscored the Suns in every quarter except for the second (PHX outscored MIN 30-26) in Game 2. Minnesota didn’t have a particularly good night on offense, going nine of 32 from deep with 13 turnovers. Still, its defense kept them in the game and was ultimately the reason they walked away with a 105-93 win. The Wolves held the Suns to under 100 points for the second straight game, forced them into 19 turnovers, resulting in 31 points for Minnesota, and kept their offensive rating at 101.1, 15.7 points lower than Phoenix’s regular season average (116.8).
Game 1 was big, Game 2 is bigger.
7-game series in NBA history…
Higher seeds that go up 2-0, win the series 93% of time.
Higher seeds that are 1-1 after 2 games, win the series 63% of time.
Game 2, Wolves vs. Suns, Target Center, 6:43 PM tip. pic.twitter.com/QNSnE5YVel
— Alan Horton (@WolvesRadio) April 23, 2024
As the Wolves head west to the desert for Games 3 and 4, they are in a mathematically overwhelming position to take the series after going up 2-0 on the Suns. Before the team looks to remain undefeated and make the fans who were chanting “WOLVES IN 4” on Tuesday look like prophets, I dive into two key factors contributing to Minnesota’s incredible defense so far.
Changing the Matchups
One of the driving factors for Minnesota’s underwhelming Game 82 was its matchups.
Wolves Head Coach Chris Finch elected to roll with Mike Conley on Bradley Beal, Edwards on Devin Booker, Jaden McDaniels on Kevin Durant, Karl-Anthony Towns on Grayson Allen, and Rudy Gobert on Jusuf Nurkić.
Phoenix’s Big 3 puts most teams in a defensive bind, but the way Minnesota’s coaching staff lined up their guys made it especially easy for the Suns to get whatever it wanted in a broad sense and, in particular, individual matchups. Defensively, the two primary issues that sprouted up with that alignment involved Beal and Allen.
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Beal hung 36 points on 14 of 21 (66.7%) from the floor on April 14. He also went an astonishing 6/6 from beyond the 3-point line in 38 minutes. Obviously, he was on a ridiculous level that isn’t easily repeatable. There isn’t much you can do when a player of Beal’s caliber virtually can’t miss. However, Conley, about four inches shorter and 32 pounds lighter than Beal, offered little resistance when the three-time All-Star sifted his way into the lane as Bradley was 7/11 (63.6%) from the paint.
The other poor matchup was a little less obvious. Allen posted 20 points on 8/11 from the floor and 3/3 from deep in 33 minutes. He starts at small forward for the Suns, but realistically, he is their pick-and-pop power forward who stands at just 6-foot-4.
Allen frequently benefits from Phoenix’s good ball movement and is the open man when opposing defenses are forced to rotate, blitz, or send two to the ball against Beal, Booker, or Durant in isolation or PnRs. Most of the time, he is engaged directly with his screen ability, which further puts a defense in a tough spot, which we see in the play above. He knows how to read the defense well and capitalizes against bigger defenders, especially when they make small yet impactful errors.
Towns struggled profusely with the Allen matchup in Game 82. Throughout his career, especially over the last two seasons, Towns has found defensive success primarily against taller players, even if they can score in face-up isolation spots. And in Game 1 of the playoffs, he got precisely that sort of matchup.
Minnesota didn’t make any matchups or scheme changes as Game 82 progressed, which concerned fans. However, the playoffs are chess, not checkers. Once they realized the Suns were their first-round matchup, the Wolves didn’t tip their hand. They saved the changes for Game 1, where Finch and his staff made the necessary matchup adjustments.
Those being…
- Conley on Allen
- Edwards on Beal
- McDaniels on Booker
- Towns on Durant
- Gobert on Nurkić
Expectedly, with Beal and Booker both having lockdown perimeter defenders on them, Frank Vogel prioritized getting the ball to Durant off the jump in Game 1, particularly in isolation spots or with him being the PnR ball handler. Individually, that plan worked well, as KD recorded a team-high 31 points on 11/17 FG in 39 minutes. Durant got his, but KAT made it difficult for him while staying out of foul trouble.
That’s all you can realistically ask from Karl.
In the regular season, KD ranked fifth in isolation frequency percentage (17.7%) and sixth in isolation points per game (4.1) according to Synergy (minimum of 70 games played). Understandably, Vogel wanted to press the issue of Durant ISOs in Game 1, but doing so took away from the Suns’ overall pace and ball movement, which resulted in them recording just 16 assists — 11 less than their regular season average — on 33 total makes from the floor.
You must pick your poison with Phoenix’s Big 3. KD was the only one who truly hurt the Wolves and took over in Game 1, as Beal had 15 points on 6 of 10 from the floor, and Booker had 18 points on 5 of 16 from the floor. You can live with that and, obviously, win games when only one has it going.
“I expect them to try to get off to a great start,” Finch told Paul Allen on KFAN ahead of Game 2. “That has been one of their secrets to success all season long, particularly against us. They are probably going to try to get out and be more aggressive in transition. Try to get [Devin] Booker going early.”
And if there was one player to go off, Durant is probably the one you’d choose, because if he’s finding success in isolation, Booker and Beal aren’t touching the ball and finding a rhythm, which is what took place in Game 1.
For Game 2, the Wolves lined up exactly how they did for Game 1. However, Phoenix’s game plan differed. As Finchy predicted, Booker was prioritized off the ball instead of Durant. Unfortunately for D-Book, he opened the game by missing his first four shots, three of which were pretty uncontested. Booker could never settle in and find a groove as the night progressed. He recorded a team-high 20 points on 6 of 13 (46.2%) from the floor, which are numbers Minnesota’s Defensive Coordinator Elston Turner is sure to be happy with. More notably, Booker’s points were spread out evenly throughout the game. He didn’t have a takeover spurt or quarter, which could have resulted in a pendulum swing of momentum.
- Booker in 1Q: 8 points on 2/7 FG (12 mins)
- Booker in 2Q: 5 points on 1/1 FG (8:03 mins)
- Booker in 3Q: 5 points on 2/3 FG (11:50 mins)
- Booker in 4Q: 2 points on 1/2 FG (9:43 mins)
Meanwhile, Beal is averaging 14.5 points on 44.4% from the floor and 42.9% from deep in 39.8 minutes through the first two games. The decision to switch Edwards onto him and move Conley onto Allen pays dividends. Ant has defended Beal for 64.4 partial possessions so far, holding him to three points and two turnovers on just one make from the floor. Minnesota Mike has been on Allen — who exited Game 3 with a right ankle sprain — for 45.3 partial possessions, giving up just one 3-point make in that span.
So far, the Wolves have entirely reversed the script from the regular season. They’ve executed a terrific defensive game plan drawn up by the coaching staff, particularly against Phoenix’s Big 3. That success starts with productive individual matchups, but after that, much of the credit needs to be given out to two individuals.
The One-Two Punch of Jaden + NAW
As I drove home from the Timberwolves’ Game 82 loss, I thought about the fact that there were two teams I didn’t want Minnesota to see in the first round: a healthy New Orleans Pelicans and the Suns. Some of that was probably recency bias because of how Game 82 played out. However, while running through matchups, I kept thinking that Minnesota may be the best-equipped team in the NBA to deal with three incredible isolation scorers in the same starting lineup.
Even for a team like the Wolves, who finished with the NBA’s best defensive rating, you never want to see veteran, battle-tested players in the postseason. As we saw on April 14, players like Booker, Beal, or Durant can have games where, no matter what the defense does, they can’t miss. However, Minnesota owns one of, if not the most productive defensive dyad in the entire league, and one of the players comes off the bench.
The first component of that top duo is McDaniels. According to StatMamba, Suns players are shooting 28.6% from the floor when defended by him through Games 1 and 2, which is an insane percentage when considering he is responsible for the most partial possessions defending Booker and Beal.
Below are matchup stats from the Suns’ Big 3 when defended by McDaniels through the first two games, courtesy of NBA.com.
- Durant: 12:23 mins | 61.5 partial poss. | 13 points | 5/7 FG
- Booker: 10:55 mins | 53.9 partial poss. | 3 points | 1/6 FG | 1/2 3P
- Beal: 2:33 mins | 9.7 partial poss. | 2 points | 1/4 FG | 0/1 3P
It’s easy for fans to become desensitized to the level of defense McDaniels plays. We watch him clamp down the opposing team’s best player regularly and walk away, thinking that was just another night in the office for him. However, to do what he is doing on the biggest stage is nothing short of amazing, especially considering he hasn’t played in the postseason in over two years because of his broken hand, which caused him to sit out of the playoffs last season.
Jaden’s defensive counterpart filled in for him against Denver in the first round one year ago. And today, both are sharing the court and collectively putting the Suns in hell.
78.3% of Alexander-Walker’s total minutes played against the Suns through the first two games have come next to McDaniels. They’ve played together for a total of 47 minutes. In that time, the Timberwolves have recorded a 141.3 offensive rating, 91.4 defensive rating, and a +49.9 net rating, according to PBP Stats.
Minnesota’s production decreases considerably when either of them is on the bench, as shown in the chart via PBP Stats of on/off numbers through Games 1 and 2.
Like Jaden, NAW’s individual matchup numbers, courtesy of NBA.com, are superb and further prove just how impactful he has been.
- Booker: 10:55 mins | 49.4 partial poss. | 10 points | 3 T/Os | 3/7 FG
- Beal: 5:38 mins | 25.7 partial poss. | 11 points | 5/9 FG
- Durant: 1:51 mins | 9.3 partial poss. | 3 points | 1 T/O | 1/3 FG
What Alexander-Walker does on defense is less flashy but more impressive than what McDaniels regularly does. NAW is 6-foot-5 with a 6-foot-9 wingspan. He is lengthy, even for NBA standards, but his physical tools are far from the only reason he locks down on defense. The former Virginia Tech star has an incredible understanding of how to use angles, move his feet rapidly, and be ultra-physical on defense without picking up unnecessary fouls.
These clips are from Game 1, where NAW recorded four steals, the most by any Wolves player off the bench in a playoff game. Nickeil got to that impressive number of pick-pockets by doing exactly what we see above.
In the first example, he forcefully picks up Beal at the center-court logo. Beal attempts to back-cut but isn’t able to blow by NAW, who shuffles his feet perfectly. After that fails, Beal goes to get the hand-off from Nurkić. NAW blitzes the screen and pokes the ball free between Beal and Nurkić — an incredible display of technique and want-to.
In the second example, it is more of the same. This time, it’s against the near 7-foot KD in the low post. According to Cleaning the Glass, 56% of Durant’s shots per game come from the mid-range, putting him in the 98th percentile. If KD caught the ball in the low post with NAW on his backside defending, the result would most likely be two points. However, Nickeil ensured that wouldn’t happen by denying the initial catch, getting in front of Durant, and then swatting the ball away before the Slim Reaper could even catch it.
The Suns are shooting 41% from the floor and 31% from deep when NAW is on the floor, and after watching plays like the ones above, it is easy to see why.
If you pay attention when McDaniels and Alexander-Walker play together, you will find many plays similar to the one above. In this example, Beal tries his best to get into the mid-range, where 40% of his attempts per game came from in the regular season. But after a few failed crossovers and head fakes, he is forced to give it up to Booker as the Target Center crowd grows louder in appreciation of the effort. D-Book attacked inside, but unfortunately for him, NAW was defending, with Jaden lurking close enough to help on the initial drive. Booker deferred to Drew Eubanks, who attempted a left-handed floater with the shot clock expiring, which was negated by Gobert’s long arm of the law.
As the Wolves hurry back on offense, play-by-play man Michael Grady describes what he just saw as “straight jacket defense.”
Minnesota works the ball around the horn after Edwards is doubled. NAW makes a brilliant read by holding the ball and facing up to get Booker closer to him. From there, Nickeil snaps it to the corner, finding McDaniels for a corner triple in a sequence that pretty much summed up the entirety of Game 2.
The Wolves offense is like an avalanche, especially at home in the playoffs. When they feed off turnovers, the points they convert in transition are demoralizing, back-breaking, and game-altering. Target Center appreciates their team’s defensive effort, spearheaded by Slim and NAW, putting Phoenix’s Big 3 in straight jackets and sending them to The Asylum of Rudy. We’ll have more on Rudy coming ahead of Game 3.
The Suns are favored by four points to win Game 3 on their home turf. The Wolves have still yet to win in Footprint Center this season, and Phoenix will be fighting for its life so that spread makes sense. However, the Wolves have a chance to do something they have never done in franchise history — go up 3-0 in the first round.
Their defense has and will continue to lead them to that never-seen-before goal.