The Wolves grabbed a 2-0 Western Conference Quarterfinals series lead by defeating the Suns 105-93 on Tuesday in Game 2. How did they do it, and how might Phoenix counter?
The Minnesota Timberwolves took a resounding 2-0 series lead in their Western Conference Quarterfinals matchup with the Phoenix Suns by a score of 105-93 on Tuesday. This is the second consecutive time the Wolves have held the Suns under 100 points, besting the 95 total points they held the Suns to in Game 1.
Slaying a three-headed dragon in Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal is not an easy task, but the Wolves’ stifling defense has made it look like a breeze throughout the first two games of this series. In Game 1, they did it by limiting both the amount of takes and makes from long range, leaning into their size advantage and winning the rebounding battle by a large margin, and two time NBA All-Star Anthony Edwards making the right reads to defeat a defense focused on stopping him from getting down hill.
Game 2 showcased more versatility, and displayed that the NBA’s top-ranked defense can adapt and win games in multiple ways. The Wolves weren’t as great in some of the areas they were in Game 1, but picked it up in other facets. What did the Timberwolves do as a defensive unit to defend home court and win both games before heading to Phoenix for a critical Game 3.
Winning The Turnover Battle
Throughout the regular season, the Suns averaged 14.9 turnovers per game, which ranked them 25th out of the 30 teams in the league. The Timberwolves were not much better as they averaged 14.2 turnovers per game to rank at 22nd in the league. The three regular season matchups between these two squads swung heavily in Phoenix’s favor, as they only averaged 13 turnovers per game, two less than their normal average, while Minnesota averaged 16, two more than their regular season totals.
In the regular season, the turnover department was a huge indicator of the Timberwolves’ success. Over the course of the 82 games, when the Wolves turned it over more than their opponent, they mustered a 20-15 record, a 57% win rate (a 47-win pace, which would’ve been the No. 8 seed this season). In games they were matched evenly, they went 7-4, a 63% win rate (a 52-win pace, good for the No. 4 seed). When they won the turnover battle, they went 30-6, which presents a phenomenal 83% win rate (a 68-win pace, which would’ve been 11 games clear of the top record in the West). The formula to winning and letting the defense thrive in the half-court is simple: don’t turn the ball over. The statistics from the regular season prove that when the Wolves take care of the ball better than their opponents, the odds of winning the game go up by a substantial amount.
Minnesota won the turnover battle in eye-opening fashion against Phoenix in Game 2, and it played a large part in being able to secure the 2-0 series lead. Not only did the Wolves force 20 turnovers to their 14 giveaways, but they outscored the Suns 31-2 off turnovers. The 31 points off an opponent’s turnovers is Minnesota’s second-best performance this season, while allowing just two points off their own turnovers is their best mark of the 2023-24 campaign.
Expanding the data to include the first two games of this series, Phoenix has averaged 17 turnovers per game, which is two per game increase from their regular season total, and four more than their matchups with Minnesota. The Wolves, meanwhile, are averaging 13.5 turnovers per game, which is almost one less than their regular season averages, and is two and half less than their matchups with Phoenix.
This battle is massively swinging in Minnesota’s favor right now, as they are turning the ball over less than they normally do against all competition, and even less than they did against Phoenix in their three losses. On the flip side, the Suns are turning it over more often than their regular season averages, and even more than they did in three games against the Timberwolves.
If the Wolves continue to dominate the turnover battle they way they have, the percentages suggest this series won’t last much longer. It will be interesting to see how the defense travels on the road in the playoffs, but if Minnesota is able to pull off a Game 3 win in Phoenix, the series is over.
Scoring On The Break
During the regular season, Minnesota was horrendous at scoring on the break. They averaged 12.4 fast break points per game, which tied them with the Orlando Magic and the Golden State Warriors for second-to-last in the league, only beating out the Memphis Grizzlies, who averaged 11.6 for the league’s worst mark. The Suns were better in that department, averaging 13.3 fast break points per game, one point more than the Wolves.
Phoenix averaged 13 fast break points per game against Minnesota in the three regular season matchups, right around their season average, while the Wolves only averaged a terrible 5.3, way below what they normally tallied in a game. That is an eight-point advantage for the Suns in that department. When the Wolves can’t set up their half-court defense, it can spell disaster. For as elite as Rudy Gobert, Jaden McDaniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker and others on this team can be defensively, having to chase the opposition from behind is going to be a tall task.
Going through every singular game in the regular season, the Timberwolves have a tremendous winning percentage when they win the fast break battle. When the Wolves score more fast break points than their opponents, they boasted a phenomenal 27-5 record, which is a2 84% win rate (a 69-win pace). When they tie with their opponents, they are 9-0 in such contests that meet the criteria, which is a 100% win rate. Combining both of those where they either tie or have the advantage, the data comes out to a 36-5 record, which is an 87.8% win rate (a 72-win pace) When the Timberwolves lost the fast break advantage, they struggled and posted a 20-21 record, which equates to a 48.7% win rate (a 39-win pace).
Looking at the statistics for the first two games of the series, the Wolves were victorious in both of these battles. In Game 1, the Wolves won the turnover battle 15-14 and won the fastbreak points battle 13-10. In Game 2, they won the turnover margin 19-13 and won the fastbreak points category 13-10. The 82-game regular season sample size indicates that when the Wolves take care of the ball better than their opponents, and beat their competition in the fastbreak game, they are highly likely to win the game. They have controlled both of these categories in their favor and it’s a direct reason for the 2-0 series lead going into The Valley.
Big KAT Hunters
Phoenix has continued to lean into their isolation-heavy offense, and they might be too embedded with that identity to be able to fully turn away from it now. I predicted after Game 1 that the Suns were going to come out with a heavier focus on an off-ball movement based offense running flare screens to catch defenders a step behind the offensive player receiving the ball to give them some breathing room from the Wolves defense. To my surprise, they decided to lean into Minnesota’s best strength and attempt to beat them in space with isolation.Edwards, Gobert, NAW, and McDaniels aren’t going to let that happen. Durant and Co. continuing to go to that well and expecting different results from Games 1 and 2 is quite literally the definition of insanity.
To the Suns’ credit, they did close the first half with a one-point lead. I don’t believe it came from anything they did particularly well, or performed better in any metric from Game 1. It was because Karl-Anthony Towns found himself in foul trouble and had to sit for a majority of the first half. KAT racked up three fouls in the first quarter alone and sat for the entire second quarter. Minnesota has a treasure trove of options to backfill Towns’ production, such as recently crowned 2023-24 NBA Sixth Man of The Year and fan favorite Naz Reid, but KAT and his gravity on the floor are needed.
Even though Towns is having the best year of his career on the defensive end, Phoenix is going to put him in actions that force him to defend without fouling early and often, and see if they can force the Wolves to rotate on dribble drive penetration leading to open shots across the floor.
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Phoenix runs an off-ball set here and forces KAT into an action that generates a great look for the Suns. Beal has the ball shaded over to the left side of the court at the logo. Jusuf Nurkić sets an off ball screen on KAT that frees up Durant as he catches the pass on the left wing. Towns isn’t beaten horribly, but he’s out of position just enough that Gobert needs to hedge the screen and it allows Nurkić to slip through both defenders leading to a high percentage shot at the rim. This isn’t a knock on Towns, as it would be tough for any defender to not allow space with an offensive set run with this high degree of execution. But it gives a glimpse into what Phoenix might lean into to generate more scoring opportunities.
This is another example of the four-time All-Star being involved being involved in off ball action that helps the Suns generate a good look. The primary action is a pick-and-roll between Drew Eubanks and Beal, but Booker is setting a back screen on KAT. Phoenix ran the exact same play in Game 1, and it led to a bucket.
Here, they flip the play so it goes to the right. The difference in the shot type is the execution. The one run in Game 1 is a breakdown on switching, and loading up on the ball-handler and nobody accounting for the roller. It’s an easy pass over the top of the defenders and results in an uncontested dunk. The one run in Game 2 was defended much better. Beal and Eubanks are putting Edwards in action on the ball in the pick-and-roll. Booker is setting a back pick on KAT that should get Eubanks an open look similar to the first play. However, Ant picks up Eubanks as the roller, NAW stays attached to Booker, and Towns is able to contest the mid-range shot from Beal.
If Ant failed to switch and chased after Beal and KAT picked up exactly how he did, it allowed Eubanks a free roll to the rim. The level of defensive execution was much better this time around.
Towns gets beat off the dribble by Booker and it leads to easy dribble drive penetration. This forces Mike Conley to rotate from the corner to help alleviate the pressure being put on the rim. It’s an easy kick out and Beal rattles in the corner 3.
KAT has stepped up to the task of being asked to do more on the defensive end this year than any other year prior in his career. Suns Head Coach Frank Vogel is going to make Towns work a lot more in these upcoming matchups. How the Timberwolves star responds will determine if Phoenix is able to get one back or if the Wolves can eclipse the Suns for the third straight time and steal one on the road.
Minnesota has yet again another opportunity to strengthen their hold on this series and find themselves moving onto the second round for the first time since 2004, but holding onto the basketball, forcing Phoenix into giving it up and winning the fast break battle, and KAT continuing to answer the call defensively will be crucial to securing a road win and a 3-0 series lead when the buzzer sounds on Friday night.