Anthony Edwards, Karl-Anthony Towns and the Timberwolves cap off their ESPN All-Access Day with a Friday night showdown with Giannis Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard and the Bucks.
The Minnesota Timberwolves come out of the All-Star break as the top seed in the Western Conference for the first time in franchise history. As they gear up for the homestretch of the regular season, they start with their final matchup against the Milwaukee Bucks. Their first meeting a few weeks ago resulted in a Timberwolves’ blowout win, but with a bit more time for their new coaching staff to prepare, the Bucks are sure to come out firing.
Game Info
- Who: Minnesota Timberwolves (39-16) vs Milwaukee Bucks (35-21)
- When: Friday, February 23rd at 9:00 PM CT
- Where: Target Center – Minneapolis, MN
- TV: ESPN (Mark Jones, Richard Jefferson, and Katie George)
- Radio: Wolves App, iHeart Radio
- Line: Wolves -4.5 | Total: 225 (courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Injury Report
Updated as of Friday 2/23 at 12:30 PM CT
Minnesota
OUT:
- Jaylen Clark (right achilles tendon rupture rehab)
- Leonard Miller (G League assignment)
- Wendell Moore (G League assignment)
Milwaukee
PROBABLE:
- Giannis Antetokounmpo (right knee patellar tendinitis)
- Pat Connaughton (left knee patellar tendinitis)
OUT:
- Khris Middleton (left ankle sprain)
- Ryan Rollins (G League two-way)
- TyTy Washington (G League two-way)
What to Watch For
Dealing With Dame
When these teams matched up a few weeks ago, Damian Lillard didn’t play. While the blowout win was a fantastic result, it came against a far from full strength Bucks team. Lillard is putting up solid numbers this year, but they are a far shout from his dominance last season, arguably the best of his illustrious career. Lillard is averaging 24.6 points, 6.7 assists, and 4.1 rebounds with shooting splits of 42/34/92. All of those, aside from the free throw percentage, are down from last season and below his career averages (his assist average is the exact same as his career average).
Despite whatever struggles and inconsistencies that Lillard has faced this season, he is still one of the deadliest offensive engines in the league. When Lillard has been on the floor, the Bucks’ offensive rating is 5.8 points higher than when he is off (88th percentile), per Cleaning the Glass. With Lillard on the floor, their offense simply morphs into one of the elite units in the league.
When Giannis Antetokounmpo is on the court and Lillard is off, the Bucks have an offensive rating of 117.8 (63rd percentile). When the pair plays together, their offensive rating leaps to 124.7 (97th percentile). However, when Lillard is on the court without Antetokounmpo, the offensive rating plummets to 112.9 (31st percentile). The tricky part with that last scenario is that Lillard has played 2,837 possessions with Antetokounmpo on the court and just 950 without him. So, the sample sizes are pretty vast there. Additionally, Lillard’s most common lineup with Antetokounmpo off the court, and the only one that qualifies for percentile rankings, consists of Lillard, Malik Beasley, Pat Connaughton, Bobby Portis, and Brook Lopez has a net rating of +11.6. That groups’ offensive rating is still just 117 (46th percentile), but Lillard is essentially the lone driving force of that group. With Lillard back in the mix, the Timberwolves’ defense will really be tested in the 27.2 minutes when Lillard and Antetokounmpo share the floor.
Limit 3s
The Bucks have one of the most prolific offenses in the league, and their proficiency from behind the arc is a big reason why. Currently, the Bucks rank sixth in 3-point frequency and 12th in accuracy. The combination of Lillard and Malik Beasley has resulted in them being one of the best shooting backcourts in the league. Their ability to stretch the floor to ridiculous distances forces defenders to stay home, which in turn creates greater driving lanes for Antetokounmpo. Perimeter defenders will be heavily tasked in this game to help deter drives but also recover to shooters without fouling.
In their first matchup, Beasley was ice cold. It isn’t uncommon for him to try and do too much against a former team, so maybe that’ll happen again in Target Center. However, his 0-9 performance was a far cry from his season average of 44.4%. Even off the bench, the Bucks have a sharpshooter in AJ Green. The bulk of basketball fans have no clue who Green is, but his shooting proficiency has been highly touted going back to his college days. While Beasley was a complete no show, Green went 7-8 for a career high 27 points. Additionally, Jae Crowder found his shooting touch, going 4-5 himself.
The Timberwolves have done a really good job of limiting triples all season as they allow the seventh-lowest frequency and the fourth-lowest percentage. This matchup will really test their ability to maintain that dominance. They have the length and defenders to do so, but rotations and closeouts have to be perfect if they plan to contain both Antetokounmpo’s drives and limit shooters from getting in a rhythm.
Get Paint Touches
The focus of the Timberwolves’ offense for much of this season has been to pressure the interior of the defense. Tonight, shouldn’t be any different. The Bucks’ have a pretty modern defensive philosophy of running shooters off the line and limiting shots at the rim. This leads to a ton of mid-range looks that they’ve done a poor job of defending, opponents are shooting 45.5% in the mid-range (27th), but it also creates opportunities to free up shooters on the perimeter.
In recent weeks we’ve seen how devastating the Timberwolves’ offense can be when they move the ball and knock down shots. By consistently pressuring a porous Milwaukee defense, the Timberwolves should get a plethora of open looks. It all has to start from their ability to get paint touches, though.
Whether it’s out of the pick-and-roll, attacking closeouts, or isolation, the Timberwolves must relentlessly pressure the paint. This will routinely collapse the defense that will in turn free up shooters on the perimeter. According to Synergy, the Bucks’ defense ranks in just the seventh (!) percentile defending spot ups and the 23rd percentile defending the pick-and-roll ball handler. This will surely change somewhat with the introduction of Pat Beverley as a point of attack defender, but there is no reason that the Timberwolves can’t consistently get sublime looks on the bulk of their possessions. As long as the Timberwolves don’t resort to hero ball and abandon their ball movement, their offense should be in for another big night.