After the Atlanta Hawks beat the Minnesota Timberwolves, 117-104, on Monday, a reporter asked Chris Finch if he would adjust the starting lineup.
“Everything’s always on the table, for sure,” he said. “But we also need to keep looking at lineup combinations as the game goes on, too.”
Finch didn’t commit to changing Minnesota’s lineup. However, he also didn’t refute the idea that he’d make a change.
It feels like the right to discuss whether the Wolves should put Naz Reid into the starting lineup.
Reid has played like a starter in the past two games. Reid is shooting 16 of 30 from the field and 7 of 17 from three, averaging 19.5 points per game, 3.5 rebounds, and 2.5 assists. Defensively, he is averaging 0.5 steals and blocks in 26.5 minutes per game. Reid has produced counting stats, but his efforts have amounted to a -25 plus/minus over the two games.
Reid’s advanced stats also indicate he has had shortcomings over the past two games. He’s posting a 97.3 offensive rating and a 116.5 defensive rating, which equals a -19.2 net rating. Even though Reid has played better in the past two games, his offensive rating for the season is still just 109.0, and his defensive rating is 105.3.
We could attribute Reid’s negative net rating to his teammate’s play. However, the Wolves have a 10.3 offensive rating this season, 13 points better than Reid despite his play over the past two games. That’s also 1.3 points better than Reid’s season average.
Reid’s defensive metrics aren’t that much better, comparatively. The Wolves have a 108.3 defensive rating, 8.2 better than Reid during the past two games. However, Reid’s season-average defensive rating is slightly better than Minnesota’s team rating.
Comparing Reid to Julius Randle may be the best way to justify sliding Reid into the starting lineup because that would be the most reasonable change based on position. Randle is having a solid season, averaging 20.0 points per game, 6.9 rebounds and 4.1 assists.
Randle’s offensive rating is 111.1 on the year, and his defensive rating is 109.1. Both ratings are better than Reid’s over the past two games. However, when looking at their full-season ratings, Randle’s offensive rating is 2.1 points better than Reid’s this season, while Reid rates 5.8 points better defensively for the year.
In the case of Reid starting over Randle, it’s more of a matter of aesthetics and philosophy. Randle is more of an isolation-heavy offensive player, evidenced by his 26.1% usage percentage. His 20.7% assist rate highlights that he’s a capable passer, but most passes come after an isolation play or deep into the shot clock.
Reid is less of a primary offensive player, with a 20.4% usage rate. He tends to thrive when a teammate kicks the ball out to him or he’s allowed to run a pick-and-roll two-man game, where he isn’t often needed to pass, as evidenced by his 10.7% assist percentage.
Despite their vastly different offensive playmaking, Randle and Reid have nearly identical assist-to-turnover ratios: 1.38 for Reid and 1.40 for Randle. Their true shooting is also similar: 57.4% for Reid and 59.3% for Randle. However, they get their shots differently, with Randle thriving with the ball in his hands and Reid succeeding more as an off-ball shooter and driver.
Given the negligible falloff from Randle to Reid, the Wolves could justifiably move Reid into the starting lineup. However, the Wolves lack shot-creators in their starting five.
However, that’s where the 5.8 defensive rating difference for the season is most telling. Reid is a significant upgrade over Randle defensively this season, as evidenced by their difference in ratings as a five-man unit with the other starters.
Randle posted a 108.4 defensive rating playing with Mike Conley, Jaden McDaniels, Anthony Edwards, and Rudy Gobert. Reid posted a 48.6 defensive rating in only 13 minutes in the same lineup. Last year, that five-player lineup had a 102.1 defensive rating over 200 minutes, 6.3 points better than Randle’s.
A 6.3-point improvement to Minnesota’s team defensive rating would drop them to a 102.0 rating and a full 0.9 points better than the Oklahoma City Thunder, who currently rank as the top defense in the NBA. It’s irrational to believe that the change from Randle to Reid in the starting lineup would statistically result in that massive swing. Still, it’s noteworthy that last season’s Wolves starters performed better defensively with Reid than Randle.
Everything’s always on the table. Finch didn’t rule out the change to the starters. Reid is slowly putting together a case where Minnesoeta’s offense wouldn’t suffer with the change, and the defense could thrive.
However, the Wolves roster needs shot creators, and Randle excels at that. Ultimately, the question of whether Reid should start may take longer to answer, but with the Wolves entering a crucial part of their season, it likely will continue to be asked.