After advancing to the second round of the playoffs for the second time in franchise history, how might Anthony Edwards the Wolves look to attack two-time MVP Nikola Jokić and the defending champion Nuggets?
For just the second time in franchise history the Minnesota Timberwolves have advanced to the second round in the Western Conference playoffs. They did so via a commanding sweep of the Phoenix Suns in Round 1 and are looking for more as their prowl for a championship continues.
These two teams definitely have some history between themselves. In 2018, the Wolves beat the Denver Nuggets in the final game of the regular season by a score of 112-106 in overtime to break the 14-year playoff drought and clinch the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference. Both teams have come a long way since then. The Nuggets won the NBA Finals in their franchise’s lone appearance last year, and Nikola Jokić is a soon-to-be three-time league MVP. Jamal Murray is an absolute gamer whose level of play rises in playoff contests, as evidenced by his two game-winners in Denver’s opening-round series victory over the Los Angeles Lakers. Those are the only two players remaining from that 2018 Nuggets roster.
The Wolves look a lot different, too. They’ve made three consecutive playoff appearances and are primed to be in contention for a long time with superstar Anthony Edwards as the franchise cornerstone. They have a young core of Ant, defensive stalwarts in Jaden McDaniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and the NBA’s Sixth Man of the Year in Naz Reid. This young core is complimented by savvy veterans, including soon-to-be four-time Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert, Mike Conley, and the greatest shooting big man of all-time in Karl-Anthony Towns, who is the lone player left from the 2018 Timberwolves roster.
Per Alan Horton, the radio voice of the Timberwolves, Minnesota is 8-8 in their last 16 matchups with Denver, including both the regular season and the postseason. Game 1 in Round 2 is set to begin on Saturday in Denver.
Wolves are 8-8 in their last 16 games (regular + postseason) vs. Nuggets.
Game 1 Saturday will be their 14th meeting in last 16 months.
— Alan Horton (@WolvesRadio) May 1, 2024
The Wolves got bounced in their first-round series by Denver last year in five games, but former Nugget and current Toronto Raptor Bruce Brown stated that Minnesota was the toughest series opponent for the Nuggets last year as they blazed their way to an NBA championship. The Wolves were missing key players in that series. McDaniels was out due to a self-inflicted broken hand and Reid couldn’t play due to a fractured wrist. Missing one of, if not the best point-of-attack defender in the league along with Reid’s skill set off the bench was a huge blow for any hopes the Wolves had in last year’s playoffs, but they are healthy and back for this series.
Even with those big pieces back in the lineup, Minnesota will certainly have their work cut out for them if they want to defeat the reigning champs.
“Discipline has to be huge against this team,” said Conley after practice on Wednesday. “That goes down to not fouling, to boxing out, like the little things in between this game, not getting backdoor cut. Those things are things we can control, but they’re really good at. They don’t beat themselves.”
The Wolves will need to keep their foot on the gas for all 48 minutes each game against this Nuggets squad, and, as Conley stated, the discipline and execution will need to be at high levels. What are some of the things the Wolves can do to defeat the Nuggets to move onto the Western Conference Finals?
Being Selective With Double Teams
Jokić is more than just your “typical” elite offensive player that puts the ball in the hoop in bunches and buries opposing defenses by scoring at all three levels. He is an engine that makes Denver’s entire offense go. Jokić raises both the floor and the ceiling of everyone around him when he is on the floor, and that is the most dangerous part of his game.
In theory, keeping the ball out of the opposing player’s best hand is a good recipe to winning games. The person with the ball is always considered to be the biggest threat on the hardwood. Growing up, coaches preached that the person with the ball is the biggest threat to the defense and somebody who doesn’t have the ball can’t score. While technically true, the six-time NBA All-Star is such an elite passer that the challenge of stopping him and limiting his teammates scoring opportunities created through their off-ball movement and his passing ability will be a tough task.
In the Nuggets previous series, the Lakers doubled Jokić a decent amount when he got the ball in the post. The issue with doubling Jokić means someone else is open on the floor, and he is bound to find them at one point or another.
The Timberwolves have the top-ranked defense in the NBA, while the Lakers were below average, ranking 17th. Minnesota has showcased a superb defense all year and they will have better success than L.A. did in doubling the Serbia native, but if they are to double at all, it needs to be extremely selective.
Too many times the Lakers sent a second man at Jokić and left the wrong person open because of it. If Minnesota does have any intention of double teaming the two- time MVP, they have to be careful in who they decide to stray from in order to do so.
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In this possession, Jokić puts Rui Hachimura on his back in the post on the right side of the floor. Justin Holiday runs the baseline to bring Taurean Prince with him and vacate the space which leaves Jokić and Hachimura to dance together in isolation. Anthony Davis comes to double to get the ball out of the former All-NBA big man’s hands, but leaves Michael Porter Jr. wide open. MPJ has never seen a shot he doesn’t like, and for good reason. He shot a blistering 48.8% from downtown on 8.2 attempts per game in Round 1. This forces Austin Reaves to close out hard on MPJ, and a simple side step from Porter leaves Reaves in the mud as he can’t get back to even get a hand up as Porter cans the long range attempt.
In this possession, the Lakers again opt to double and leave the wrong person open. It originally starts with Reaves coming as the second man to help Davis. Once Jokić gives the ball up, Reaves clears out and Prince is the next man up to do the same thing Reaves did. This time, one power dribble from the big man creates the extra space of separation needed as it sucks Prince in too deep to be able to recover and contest and LA fails at their rotations again, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope buries the triple. KCP had a rough Round 1, shooting only 28.6% on 5.6 attempts from long range, but he did shoot 40.6% on 4.1 attempts per game in the regular season. All it takes is for someone like him to get hot for four games and a series can be over in the blink of an eye.
Again, Minnesota is a much better defensive team than the Lakers and are better suited for this type of game plan if they elect to run it. They just have to make sure they are not leaving Denvers’ green light shooters open if they decide to do so.
This possession highlights another thing in conjunction with opting to double team Jokić, the person coming to double can not be lazy if they come. Davis is slow the entire possession. LeBron James is guarding the reigning Finals MVP on the block on the right side of the floor. Davis is guarding MPJ on the wing, and he never once puts his hands up to apply any pressure on the entry pass, is lethargic in getting into Jokić’s space and doesn’t dig hard, never applies any semblance of resistance on the outlet pass and an extremely bad contest leads to another wide open 3-pointer for one of the best shooters in the game today.
Limiting Cutters As Much As Possible
This goes back to limiting how much of an engine Jokić can be for this Denver squad. We’ve already discussed how much of a threat he is passing the ball out of doubles to open shooters, but the same thing applies for his teammates who will cut off the ball. Preventing Nuggets players from cutting and scoring over the course of a game will help in a myriad of ways. It will primarily mean the Wolves aren’t getting beat while their backs are turned and allowing Denver uncontested rim pressure. Minnesota eliminating free baskets at the rim via open cuts will reduce the Nuggets’ overall scoring and it will stave off foul trouble.
Limiting as many attempts at the rim as possible will always be a good thing, but it will be extremely beneficial to the Wolves even more so in this series. As mentioned, Jokić is a tough cover even if the defense throws the kitchen sink. Minnesota will need to make things extremely hard on him, and part of that battle is deploying versatile coverages that will impede his remarkable ability to set up teammates in great scoring positions. If the Joker doesn’t have teammates that are open to pass to within their offensive flow, and he has to work for every single inch, it will wear him down over the course of a seven-game series, which plays into the massive depth advantage the Timberwolves have over the Nuggets. If Minnesota can exhaust him and force Denver to rely more heavily upon their other scoring options, they can take a death grip on the series and advance to the Western Conference finals.
The Nuggets present a unique challenge that requires consistently great attention to detail, but this iteration of the Wolves is built to answer the call.
Assuming KAT is going to be the primary defender for Jokić and Gobert will be assigned to Aaron Gordon in a spy role, Towns will have a huge task in front of him. It’s not about stopping arguably the best player in the world, it’s about making him work as hard as possible for every single inch on both ends of the floor. Nikola is going to get his because he’s just that good, but making him work for it, preventing offensive rebounds, and shutting down everyone else to the best of Minnesota’s collective ability will be the biggest factor in winning or losing games this series.
Preventing Crossmatches in Transition
Whoever on the floor for the Wolves at a given time is designated as the primary defender for Jokić is going to have to ensure they are matched up with him at all times. During the fourth quarter of Game 5 against the Lakers with under three minutes remaining and the score knotted at 99, the Joker hunted out a mismatch and he didn’t even need to work for it. Dribbling up the floor in transition he shifted towards the left side of the floor to force Hachimura to pick him up, a matchup the Nuggets prefer as opposed to Davis guarding him. He pins Rui on his hip and with three dribbles he overpowers the weaker defender and finds the bottom of the net on a six- foot floater with little resistance.
(Jokic had this lined up the whole way) pic.twitter.com/DWvOlvquHE
— Steve Jones Jr. (@stevejones20) April 30, 2024
Regardless of whether Jokić is handling the ball in transition or running the floor, the Wolves absolutely cannot get crossmatched in these situations. Minnesota cannot let him hunt out his preferred matchups and operate within those realms. The basketball IQ Nikola possesses is incredible, and he understands how to manipulate individual defenders and entire defenses. Letting him pick the matchups in transition like he did against the Lakers on that possession will lead to a quick exit for the Timberwolves if it happens at a consistent level. It will not be perfect for an entire game, and especially not for a series, but Minnesota needs to minimize this happening as much as it possibly can.
An Unorthodox Defensive Matchup
On a surface level, many people are thinking that McDaniels should guard Murray at the point-of-attack on the defensive end. It makes sense, McDaniels is one hell of a defender with tons of length to disrupt Murrays’ rhythm and he’s a phenomenal screen navigator.
However, my qualms with that matchup come from Ant-Man and his off-ball defense. If McDaniels does get the Murray assignment, do the Timberwolves trust Edwards to stay engaged on that end of the floor while he is an off-ball defender? I don’t. Too many times Ant will either overplay his matchup or he falls asleep which leads to back door cuts. I also don’t believe he can stay engaged enough away from the ball to not fall far behind in pin down actions designed to get Denvers’ movement shooters open. It happened frequently in the fourth quarter of the Wolves’ 115-112 loss to the Nuggets in March.
I think the best matchup on the defensive end for the Wolves is to keep Edwards on the ball and to allow McDaniels and Alexander-Walker to fight through the off-ball actions to close the gaps on cutters and shooters running through designed sets to get them open. I think they have showcased the discipline to be more locked in away from the ball than Ant has and they should be handling those responsibilities to put Minnesota in the best possible position to win.
This series is going to be two heavyweights going blow for blow with each other, and the winner is going to be the team that executes at a higher level than the other, and the margin for error is slim.
KAT is going to have to work harder on the defensive end than he ever has in his career to slow down Jokić as much as possible, the collective unit needs to sell out on limiting cutters and rim pressure, and an unorthodox scheme will be the path to victory for this series. Lock in Wolves fans, this is going to be one hell of a ride.