How does the best stretch of offensive basketball of the year effect the grades of Anthony Edwards, Rudy Gobert and the rest of the starters? Read on to find out!
Way back before the season started, I likened the 2023-2024 Minnesota Timberwolves squad to a movie sequel. Despite a 2022-2023 campaign that contained major injuries, frustrated teammates, and an early first-round knockout — the team showed just enough promise to hope that returning the main cast could lead to a blockbuster success next season.
The All-Star break marks the end of the second act. To help get your bearings on what that means, in The Empire Strikes Back, Luke Skywalker left Dagobah to save his friends and confront Darth Vader. In The Dark Knight, the interrogation scene with the Joker and subsequent fallout of the trap he laid has left Batman broken. In Paddington 2, our titular lead has just escaped from prison and is on his way home to set things right.
It’s true that nailing the first two acts of a movie doesn’t guarantee a masterpiece, but it’s also true that you can’t have a masterpiece without knocking the first two acts out of the park. So far, the 2023-2024 Timberwolves have done just that.
For final act movie failures, there are none more famous than the Marvel Cinematic Universe. With varying degrees of success, the majority of Marvel films find all the main characters and villains coalescing in front of a green screen for a CGI-filled slop-fest..
So what is the Timberwolves basketball equivalent of a CGI-filled slop fest? It would mean falling prey to the most visible flaw during the team’s “meh” stretch in January: “Me-First” offensive basketball.
Not valuing possessions. Being careless with the ball. This kind of basketball stifles movement because when the ball touches a player’s hands, it’s “their turn” to get theirs. It means stat-hunting for milestones that disrupt the flow of the game. And it looks like “playing with your food” when you face inferior opponents – lacking the conviction to soundly beat a bad team.
It is notable that these symptoms of a bad third act occur on the offensive end of the floor. The Timberwolves defensive side has ranked number one throughout the season, consistently bringing it on a night-to-night basis.
The defensive floor of this team has them as the number one seed in the West in February, but it’s the offensive ceiling that will give them a chance to still be talked about into April, May and even June.
Let’s take a look at how the starters have fared fourteen games into the 3rd quarter of the season.
A few brief reminders about the grading system:
- Small sample size alert! A check-in is, by nature, a much smaller sample size. These are not final grades but just a chance to see where a player is tracking halfway through a quarter.
- These grades are roles-based, so the stats I’m looking at for each player are different.
- Roles on the team can change as the roster and playing time changes—I will alter or add statistical categories throughout the season as needed.
- The below stats are from the fourteen games between 1-20-24 and 2-15-24, the victory in Portland before the All-Star Break.
Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
Mike Conley: 90% (A-)
Since I started writing out these report cards last season, the lowest grade that Mike Conley has ever gotten in a quarter is an A-. Talk about a player who plays and fits absolutely perfectly within their role. Despite having his worst shooting stretch since I’ve started tracking stats, he still sneaks into the A- category due to his elite playmaking and lack of turnovers, and (something that is becoming a bit underrated about his game) his defense.
His defensive estimated plus/minus rating is +0.8, something that would rank him within the top 78th percentile of the league. He’s one of the best on the team when it comes to screen navigation and chasing shooters, and despite being closer to 40 than 30, he still can hold up 1-on-1 when being attacked in isolation.
Just like the sun rising in the east and setting in the West, you can set your watch by an “A” range grade for Conley on these report cards.
Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
Anthony Edwards: 96% (A)
The two-time All-Star and undisputed best opposite-hand scorer on the team, gets his best grade on the season for this 14-game stretch. The thing that pushed him over the top? He matched his elite ability to score with ball-security and playmaking.
In the final four games before the All-Star break, Anthony Edwards had a combined 26-4 AST/TO ratio, and as you can see above for all fourteen games, his turnover ratio (number of turnovers based on offensive touches) went from being one of the 10 worst based on his usage to being outside the top 40. It is no coincidence that during this stretch, the Timberwolves have seen their offensive rating climb from the bottom third in the league, to beginning to knock on the door of the top 10.
Complimenting his lead-role on offense has been some of his most consistent defense on the season, and the cherry-on-top of it all is his hot shooting.
If this is a preview of this year’s playoff version of Edwards, look out.
Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports
Jaden McDaniels: 79% (C+)
This quarter has been a bit of a roller coaster for Jaden McDaniels. He’ll have an elite offensive and defensive game against the Clippers one night, and then follow it up with an 0-7 disappearing act against the Portland Trail Blazers a night later. Overall, it’s been a poor shooting stretch for him, but there is no reason to think that the lower 3-point shooting number is anything besides a statistical aberration.
As for the other low number here, the defensive field goal percentage above does not tell the full story of how he’s played. As I’ve mentioned before, most defensive counting stats are limited in some way, and this one always penalizes players who are locked into tougher iso matchups, or the bigs who have to contest following being screened.
He’s still a top 25 defensive player by estimated plus/minus – don’t let some good opponent shooting fool you.
Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
Karl-Anthony Towns: 85% (B)
Karl-Anthony Towns has been scoring at an All-NBA level these 14 games as he’s averaging 25 points per game on 53.1/44.3 shooting splits on FG% and 3P%. As was the case with Edwards, it is no accident that the offense had their best quarter of the season with a more assertive Towns.
As a four, he continues to be a slightly-above average defender (63rd percentile in estimated plus/minus). Like the Bulls did in their overtime victory versus the Wolves, he’ll be hunted in isolation matchups with scoring guards, but he’s proven over the course of the season that this isn’t some achilles heel that causes the defense to collapse. It’s just a weak-point they’ll have to prepare for.
His grade ultimately settles into the “B” range for the thing that has been holding him back all season – his propensity to turn the ball over. He leads the league in offensive fouls committed and his TO ratio would rank 7th worst in the league during this stretch for players with at least 20% usage.
If the four-time All-Star can reign in the bucking bronco of his offensive fouling tendencies, it will set this offense up to take another step in the final stretch of the season.
Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports
Rudy Gobert: 91% (A-)
Similar to Conley, Rudy Gobert has been all about consistency this season. Add Nickeil Alexander-Walker to the mix, and your have three players whose floor of effort and overall IQ gets this team as many wins as they have.
The Timberwolves are the number one team in the West because of their defense, and their defense is the best in the league because it’s anchored by one of the greatest defensive players of all-time in Rudy Gobert.
There are certain players in the league who think they have a chokehold on what the Timberwolves final act will look like, but they may be in for a rude awakening when they realize that the best team in the West hasn’t hit their ceiling of play yet this season. Discount them if you like, but this will be the best supporting cast Gobert has ever had in the playoffs.
Check back later in the week for the bench and final team grades. As always, if you are looking for some more Timberwolves content, check out the Dunks After Dusk podcast on both Apple and Spotify. Before the next post-game reaction pod on Friday, we’ll begin to cast our gaze forward and talk a bit about the playoffs, ideal first-round matchups, and final tune-ups this team needs before we get to April.