Point guard has been the most volatile position for the Minnesota Timberwolves in this decade.
To begin the decade, D’Angelo Russell put up solid numbers, averaging 18.5 points and 6.5 assists on 56.4% true-shooting. However, Russell’s play on the court ultimately didn’t match his box score output.
Mike Conley was a perfect stopgap acquisition for the Timberwolves at the 2022-23 trade deadline. Conley offered Minnesota the veteran balance that they needed and provided the Wolves with his single-season career-high three-point shooting season at 44.2% in the 2023-24 season.
Conley is a great fit next to Anthony Edwards, but he has begun to regress as he reaches his late 30s.
The Timberwolves are undergoing another roster transition. They traded two future first-round picks just a year ago at the 2024 NBA Draft to acquire Rob Dillingham and potentially find Conley’s successor.
Still, Dillingham is unproven. He will need the necessary time to overcome growing pains as he learns how to drive winning in the NBA.
Despite Minnesota’s uncertainty at point guard, it’s not as dire as it may appear. There are multiple pathways of success for the Timberwolves moving forward.
One of the most significant league-wide changes in the NBA over the past decade has been the growing importance of positional size. Teams are finding more ways to occupy more space on the court, creating more advantages, and altering the usage of their stars. The biggest change in usage has come from star players carrying more on-ball duties, which has dwindled the minutes and roles of the point guards of the past.
When a player that is larger than your average point guard can initiate offense, and the rest of the starting and closing lineups can have increased size, it becomes more difficult to find lanes for smaller guards to fit into big minutes unless they possess outlier traits or production. The margin of error is significantly smaller for the point guards than it was in the past.
This blueprint could be a potential option for the Timberwolves in the 2025-26 season.
Minnesota needs Dillingham to pan out because of the 2031 unprotected first-round draft pick and the 2030 first-round swap that they traded to acquire him. Dillingham may face developmental hurdles this upcoming season, but they will not be as worrisome if the Timberwolves have a multilayered plan.
The logical route to success for the Timberwolves is to rely on Edwards and Julius Randle first, and then on Conley and Dillingham as the secondary point guards.
Conley and Dillingham should still see their fair share of minutes throughout the regular season, so Edwards and Randle don’t expend too much energy taking on a larger role. Edwards and Randle should receive more prioritization than the latter.
Conley is still a viable rotational NBA player at this stage of his career. However, he does not need to play many minutes. Last season, Conley played a career-low 24.7 minutes per game, a number that could decrease even more this upcoming season.
It’s hard to project how many games and minutes Dillingham should play. Much of it depends on opportunity, his ability to overcome his individual shortcomings, team health, and Conley’s regression. Dillingham’s first season in the rotation could play out in many different ways.
Finding a balance will be key for the Timberwolves. If they can give Edwards and Randle more proper reps, they will be primed for the playoffs, where the Wolves must rely on them. If the Timberwolves want to maintain their standing in the Western Conference, they will need to consider moving Conley out of the starting lineup come playoff time.
Suppose they are going to make these starting lineups and rotational considerations. Then, they must initiate the change in the regular season, so that they can be ready come playoff time.
Luckily, there are still plenty of pockets where the Timberwolves can stagger Conley to play with the bench units, or where Dillingham can play more minutes with the more proven starters to ease the growing pains.
Another spot where the Timberwolves can assist their initiators is by pushing the pace.
According to Cleaning the Glass, Minnesota ranked 25th in the league last season, with 80.5% of its possessions occurring in the halfcourt. If the Timberwolves can find more ways to get into a running transition, or even start their possessions earlier in the shot clock, it will ease the growing pains for Dillingham and make it easier on Edwards and Randle.
Most importantly, it will appease Chris Finch. Everyone has seen him on the sidelines waving his arm at players after they rebound, begging them to get up the court quicker.
Adding youth to the rotation should help the Timberwolves in this category. Younger players are more athletic, but on average, they tend to excel in the open court spacing of transition rather than making quick decisions in tight half-court play. Dillingham has a better chance of learning and developing if he can find comfort in one facet of his life. Terrence Shannon Jr. will also be alongside him to help push the ball up the floor.
Minnesota’s point guard and lead initiator role is in a transition phase, but there is still a lot for them to work with. Even with Father Time creeping in on Conley and Dillingham having little prior impact on winning, the Timberwolves have a baseline of talent with Edwards and Randle to help mitigate the anticipated change in minutes at the lead guard spot.
It will take some tinkering throughout the regular season, and it will not be an instant transition for the Timberwolves. Still, it’s something they need to succeed at to continue winning regular-season games and make deep postseason runs.