After losing their third straight game, Anthony Edwards and the Minnesota Timberwolves return home for Game 6 against the Denver Nuggets with their season on the line.
The Minnesota Timberwolves jumped out to a historic start to the postseason, building on their equally as historic regular season. They finished with a 56-26 record, good for third in the Western Conference. That was the second-best record in franchise history and the second time the Wolves hosted a first-round playoff series.
The Timberwolves swept the Phoenix Suns in the first round and quickly went up 2-0 against the Denver Nuggets on the road in the second round. Minnesota seemed unbeatable, as it became favorites to make the Western Conference Finals and had the second-best odds to hoist the Larry O’Brien Championship Trophy in June.
However, reality came crashing back into the picture. The undefeated Cinderella run was over as the Nuggets marched into Target Center, stole games 3 and 4 away from the Wolves, and returned to Ball Arena, taking a commanding 3-2 series lead after their 112-97 win in Game 5.
Minnesota’s memorable 2023-24 campaign is on the brink of coming to a close in Game 6. For the first time in the playoffs, the Wolves are pinned in a corner, trying their best to fight their way out and deliver some much-needed counterpunches while facing elimination.
Game Info
- Who: #3 Minnesota Timberwolves (2-3) vs Denver Nuggets (3-2)
- When: Thursday, May 16 at 7:30 PM CT
- Where: Target Center — Minneapolis, MN
- National TV: ESPN
- Radio: KFAN FM 100.3, Wolves App
- Line: Wolves -2 | Total: 203 (courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Jerseys: Minnesota (Classic Edition), Denver (Statement)
Photo of jerseys via NBA LockerVision
Injury Report
Updated as of Wednesday, May 15 at 6:00 PM CT
Minnesota
QUESTIONABLE:
- Mike Conley (right soleus strain)
(Conley didn’t play in Game 5 due to right achilles soreness. Your soleus sits right below the knee, runs down your lower leg, and connects your Achilles tendon to your heel, according to the Cleveland Clinic. This is the same injury that has kept Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kristaps Porziņģis out of playoff games in recent weeks.)
Denver
QUESTIONABLE:
- Jamal Murray (left calf strain)
(Murray has been played in all five games so far, averaging the second-most minutes on Denver (38.7) despite being listed as questionable for each game).
OUT:
- Vlatko Čančar (left torn ACL surgery)
What to Watch For
Photo by AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post
Anthony Edwards Get-Back Game
He’s been on a ridiculous postseason run this year, averaging 30.6 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 6.0 assists on 54.1% from the floor and 42.2% from deep in 40.4 minutes. Still, the Nuggets have successfully defended Anthony Edwards in recent games, particularly games 3 and 5. He’s shouldered a hefty load, one that would make certain stars crumble and fall to their knees due to the weight, but Edwards somehow needs to break free and turn in one of his best postseason games for the Wolves to force a Game 7.
In Game 4, Ant was a one-man wrecking crew. He hung 44 points on the board in Minnesota’s eventual eight-point loss. However, the games before and after that one were relatively unmemorable, thanks to a stingy and physical Denver defense.
- Game 3: 19 points, 5 assists, 8/15 FG, 3/8 3P, -32
- Game 5: 18 points, 9 assists, 5/15 FG, 1/5 3P, -12
It is proven that if you can eradicate Edwards offensively over a full 48 minutes, there is a very high chance you will come away with a win. The Atlanta, Georgia native averaged 35 points on 60.9% from the floor and 36.4% from deep through the first two games against the Nuggets, who quickly realized they needed to change their defensive game plan.
As a response, we have seen an uptick in doubles sent Ant’s way. Every time he catches the ball in isolation situations or screening plays, Denver blitzes and sends two, maybe even three, to the ball while packing the paint when Edwards attacks downhill.
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It was encouraging to see that Ant dished out nine assists, but he probably should have had a few more if his teammates connected on open shots from outside.
The Timberwolves went 8 of 26 from 3-point range on Tuesday. That simply isn’t going to get the job done. And when you aren’t punishing a double-heavy defense by making quick passes and open shots, they feel no need to alter their defensive scheme.
The Wolves will need another megastar performance from Edwards to keep their season alive. We know he is more than capable of providing just that, but if Denver’s defense remains dialed in with smart doubles and one-on-one defense, Minnesota’s supporting cast will hold the key to unlocking another 35+ point performance from AE 5.
Photo by AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post
How in the World Do You Stop Nikola Jokić?
There isn’t a sure-fire answer to that question, and we saw exactly why in Game 5.
Nikola Jokić is a generational talent — one of the best big men ever to play the game. When an opposing team maps out its defensive scheme against the Nuggets, it typically tries to make life as difficult as possible on Jokić while simultaneously taking Jamal Murray out of the mix. Denver becomes an unbeatable team if both players are dialed in on offense.
When game planning for Jokić, here are two questions the defensive coaching staff must ask themselves:
- Do we want to double Jokić, turning him into a passer?
- Do we want to let him operate one-on-one and live with the result, turning him into a scorer?
The Timberwolves have been quite open about wanting to make the 3x Most Valuable Player score the ball. Relatively speaking, you can live with the Joker scoring as long as your offense on the other end plays at a somewhat high level, but if he drops 25 or more points and dishes out ten or more assists, he becomes a five-alarm fire that only makes his teammates better.
“I just laugh. That’s all I can do. I can’t be mad because he is good, man,” Edwards told the media when asked about Jokić after Game 5. “I think I said that after Game 1 when we won, and Game 2: He’s the MVP, he’s the best player in the NBA. He showed it the last three games, three games in a row. He did it tonight. He was special tonight. I got to give him his flowers. I don’t know what we were supposed to do. He was that guy tonight.”
In Game 5, Jokić recorded 40 points and 13 assists with zero turnovers on 15 of 22 from the floor, 2 of 3 from deep, and 8 of 9 from the charity stripe in 41 minutes. Honestly, it felt like he had north of 60 points with his ability to dominate in timely stretches. Whenever the Wolves made any rebuttal, Jokić came down on the other end, slowed everything down, and easily scored from wherever he wanted to, particularly in the third quarter.
Over the first 2:14 minutes of the second half, the Timberwolves went on an 11-3 run, taking a two-point lead after trailing by six at halftime. They finally had momentum and appeared ready to gain a sizeable lead for the first time in three games. However, the Wolves made offensive miscues the rest of the frame, and Jokić turned in one of the most dominant quarters of basketball in recent memory. He played all 12 minutes of the third, scoring 16 points of Denver’s 38 points on 6 of 7 from the floor and 4 of 4 from the free throw line.
Minnesota threw every defender they could at Jokić, mixing and matching to the best of its abilities. Rudy Gobert took stabs at the assignment, as did Karl-Anthony Towns, Kyle Anderson, and Naz Reid. However, there was absolutely nothing the Wolves could do in Game 5. Not only was the Joker dominating inside against the 4-time Defensive Player of the Year one-on-one, but he was also exploding (yes, exploding) off the dribble.
“He was in the zone. I mean, a couple of shots, I think I actually blocked, and the ball went in,” Gobert responded when asked postgame about Jokić third quarter performance. “It was just incredible in that quarter. He put the team on his back and he was making everything. Drawing fouls, getting to the line. So, definitely one of those stretches that we’re going to watch the film and I think there are things we should have done better, but there’s also plays he made that I think are tough to overcome.”
Do I possess the lucrative game plan that can stop Jokić? Of course not, but I’m not sure one actually exists, which is precisely what makes him so scary to go up against. Regardless, the Wolves must find some level of success in Game 6. Maybe that comes in the form of denying Nikola entry passes and being more physical. But be too physical, and he will mow into you and draw a foul. You also really can’t double-team him, or Jokić will kick the ball out, and the Nuggets will move the ball around the horn until someone is open.
Do you feel helpless reading that? I’m sure you do because he is an absolute matchup nightmare that — somehow — needs to be contained in order for Minnesota’s season to stay alive. Woof.
Photo by AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post
Transition Defense
When a player of the caliber of Jokić or Jamal Murray is playing out of their mind, it’s imperative that you don’t reward the team they are on by making stupid mistakes that are a byproduct of laziness. Unfortunately, that’s what happened in Game 5 for the Wolves.
Denver outperformed Minnesota in two significant areas on Tuesday. One of those being points in the paint, as the Nuggets had 62 and the Wolves had 48. But Jokić went 11 of 14 from the paint on his own, being responsible for 22 of those paint points as the scorer alone, so having a disparity in the category is expected.
However, Denver’s 16 fastbreak points, compared to Minnesota’s four, was arguably more lethal to the Wolves’ chances of pulling out a win.
Off misses and turnovers, the Wolves rarely got back in transition well. They turned the ball over 14 times, missed 40 shot attempts, and 18 threes, which allowed the Nuggets to get out and run frequently. Before Game 5, Denver averaged 147 points per 100 transition plays in the playoffs, ranking 17th in the league, according to Cleaning the Glass. Head Coach Michael Malone’s team isn’t particularly productive in the open court, but they sure can be when presented with the opportunity.
When Jokić gets a rebound, the first thing he does is look down the floor to see if any of his teammates are streaking. Most of the time, they are, especially when the opposition is caught ball-watching and doesn’t realize when someone is contesting and releasing.
Time and time again in Game 5, the Wolves were slow to get back on defense, made miscues in the open court, or failed to contest a triple after missing a shot or turning the ball over. If you are going to make mistakes, you need to try your best to make up for it on the other end, and Minnesota didn’t do that in Game 5.
Of course, making more threes, limiting long defensive rebounds for the opposition, and taking care of the ball will limit the damage Denver can cause in transition. However, mistakes are inevitable, and when they happen, the Wolves must be more connected, physical, and quick to limit how much the Nuggets get out and run in Game 6.
Photo by David Sherman/NBAE via Getty Images
Mike Conley’s Availability
About nine hours before Game 5 tipped off, the Timberwolves announced that Mike Conley was questionable to play with right Achilles soreness. Chris Finch told the media pregame that Conley was injured in the final play of Game 4, where the result was already definite, as the Nuggets were up eight points with 25 seconds left in the game.
Finch also added that Conley was a game-time decision. After the 36-year-old guard went through his pregame warmups, the team decided he wasn’t good enough to play, so they ruled him out and elected to start Nickeil Alexander-Walker in his place.
Prior to Game 5, the lineup of Alexander-Walker, Edwards, McDaniels, Towns, and Gobert logged 13 minutes in the playoffs, recording a +6.14 net rating, 124 offensive rating, and 117.89 defensive rating, according to PBP stats. Overall, the group was productive, especially on offense. But the sample size was small, and it’s almost impossible to replicate Conley’s level-headed impact over the course of an entire game.
Expectedly, the Wolves sorely missed Minnesota Mike in Game 5. NAW, who logged 14 points and five assists on 5 of 12 from the floor and 4 of 8 from deep in 39 minutes, was incredibly productive. But he isn’t a true floor general and spent most of his time off-ball, spotting up patiently from the wings and corners.
Minnesota’s coaching staff turned to Monte Morris for 12 minutes to inject some feeling of calm. He registered six points and three assists on 3 of 6 from the floor during that time. Morris was good, but he wasn’t great. The former Nuggets guard did what you expected from a player who hasn’t received meaningful minutes for quite some time.
Simply put, the Wolves missed everything that Conley brings in Game 5. They missed his empty-corner PnRs with Gobert. They missed his ability to sift into the paint. They missed his occasional pull-up threes off screens to stem the tide for the opponent. And above all else, they missed his veteran leadership when Denver was going on its runs.
“We’re hopeful Mike [Conley] can go in Game 6,” Chris Finch told the media postgame. “That was one of the reasons to be cautious with him right here, didn’t feel like he could go, but maybe in a couple more days, he could go.”
You must always be cautious with soft tissue injuries, especially for older players. Kristaps Porziņģis and Giannis Antetokounmpo both had a soleus strain and missed multiple weeks over the last month.
However, the Wolves face elimination, so it is fair to expect Conley will play through some discomfort if the medical staff clears him. He wants to win a championship now more than anyone else on the team. Mike, along with all of his teammates, has worked incredibly hard to get to where they are in the postseason. Momentum may not be in their favor, but the Wolves should be all hands on deck, fighting for their lives on Thursday at Target Center.
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