Playoff Series Preview: #6 Timberwolves vs. #7 Warriors

After taking out the Lakers in five games, the Timberwolves look to make it back to the Western Conference Finals against Steph Curry, Jimmy Butler, Draymond Green, and the Warriors.

For the second straight season, the Minnesota Timberwolves won a playoff series, defeating Luka Dončić, LeBron James, and the Los Angeles Lakers in five games. Now, the Timberwolves look to match their playoff success from a season ago and get back to the Western Conference Finals.

Standing in their way are Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler, Draymond Green, and the Golden State Warriors in a series full of incredible storylines from both recent matchups and old beefs now rekindled.

In many ways, this Warriors team is similar to the Lakers, who like to play small, do not have a large amount of bench depth, and rely on one of the greatest players to ever do it. In other ways, though, Golden State provides different matchup challenges for Minnesota, ones they need to solve to advance to the franchise’s third conference finals.

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What to Watch For

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Rudy vs. small lineups

Through four games of the previous series against Los Angeles, Rudy Gobert was largely a non-factor, providing solid defense against Dončić and the Lakers but not much else as he averaged just 3.5 points and 6.3 rebounds per game.

In the fifth and final game of the series, Gobert put together possibly the best game of his career. Gobert put up 27 points and 24 rebounds, including nine on the offensive end. Rudy utterly dominated the Lakers’ smaller lineups, something he did incredibly well down the stretch of the regular season but failed to do in the first four games of the series.

This series against Golden State presents a similar challenge for Gobert, as the Warriors’ preferred lineup is one that goes away from center Kevon Looney and features Green and Butler as the frontcourt. Despite the Houston Rockets having a lot of size in their previous playoff matchup, the Warriors still elected to play their center-less lineup for a large majority of the series.

The Warriors will almost certainly continue playing small, giving Gobert another chance to dominate with his size and rebounding. While Rudy will not be the focus of the Timberwolves’ offense, how well he can grab offensive rebounds and put them back in the basket could be a big turning point in this series.

The other Gobert-related aspect of this series is his history with Draymond. The Warriors forward has made it known that he is not a fan of Gobert. Last season, he put Gobert in a chokehold before being ejected from the game, and during the Western Conference Finals, he went on TNT to bash Gobert any chance he could get.

Just like with Dončić last series, do not expect Rudy to come out and start something with Draymond. Gobert is much more likely to let his play do the talking. While the first four games of these playoffs may have looked rough, Rudy got the last laugh by dominating Game 5, and this series potentially sets up the exact same way.

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Defense on Steph

Any defensive game plan when going up against the Warriors starts with how to best slow down Steph Curry. He is the greatest shooter of all time, and even that statement seems to undersell the value he brings on offense. The Warriors built a dynasty running their offense through Steph and his off-ball movement, and that aspect of their team has not changed.

Chasing Curry around can be an exhausting process, one that no matter how well you defend, can still lead to giving up buckets. The Wolves will need to execute defensively with extra attention to detail, as one small mistake can lead to either an open look for Curry or a wide-open teammate.

The Timberwolves are as equipped to guard Curry as any team in the league. Not only do the Wolves have a plethora of quality wing defenders, but they have both size and speed in their frontcourt, limiting Curry’s ability to attack any one player.

Jaden McDaniels will likely be the primary matchup for Curry, but don’t expect him to be the only Minnesota defender on Steph. The Wolves will likely cycle through a ton of different defensive options, including Mike Conley, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and Donte DiVincenzo, in an attempt to conserve each player’s energy as much as possible.

Outside of Curry and Butler, the Warriors don’t have a ton of quality places to generate offense. If the Timberwolves can slow or limit Curry, a tall task for any defense, they will be in good shape this series.

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Jimmy Butler returns to Target Center

The most interesting subplot of this series for Timberwolves fans is the return of Jimmy Butler to Target Center. After spending just over a season in Minnesota, Butler promptly requested a trade from then Head Coach and President of Basketball Operations Tom Thibodeau before blowing everything up in the now-infamous practice.

While there are no players, coaches, or front office staff remaining with the Wolves from Butler’s time in Minnesota, the fan base has certainly not forgotten what happened with Butler almost seven years ago.

An ongoing trade with Butler has been his ability to miss games when his team returns to play the Wolves at Target Center. The last time Jimmy played at Target Center was all the way back on November 21, 2021, during Edwards’s sophomore season.

While there may not be any animosity between the players on the court with Butler, the fans in the building on Tuesday for Game 1 will certainly let Butler hear about their displeasure with him. The boos will rain down hard from every level on Target Center and will likely pursist throughout the series.

Between Butler’s return and all that comes from playing Draymond in a playoff series, it will be up to the Wolves to remain professional and consistent with their play. If Golden State can drag Minnesota down in the mud, that is a place where the Warriors are more likely to beat the Wolves with experience.

Rest advantage

While the Wolves have not played in a basketball game since their Game 5 victory last week on Wednesday, the Warriors have been in a dog fight with the Rockets, finishing that series just two days before Game 1, giving them just 48 hours to go from Houston to Minnesota.

After playing Curry 46 minutes and Butler 45 minutes in Game 7 on Sunday, the Warriors now have to deal with a rested Timberwolves team that has been sitting at home since Thursday morning.

This giant discrepancy in off days coming into the series gives the Timberwolves a giant advantage in the first game of the series. Typically, teams coming off a Game 7 victory struggle against rested teams to start the following series, and given the game of the Warriors’ star players, the Wolves should be able to play with a much higher level of energy for Game 1 on Tuesday.

The series as a whole doesn’t get an extra off-day until before Game 6. For the first five games of the series, there is only one day off between games, even when the series switches from Minnesota to California and back again.

The Wolves already have a lot of matchup advantages coming into the series, including a deeper bench, bigger size among their key players, and a superstar player who has shown the ability to step on the throats of an aging superstar. Add in the large rest advantage, and this series should be viewed as the Wolves to lose.

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X-Factor

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Anthony Edwards and making the right play

As is the case with almost any playoff series, the ability of a team’s best player to solve what the opposing defense is trying to do is a giant factor in which team ends up winning the series.

This matchup with the Warriors is a perfect example of that, as the extent to which Edwards can provide offensive value for the Timberwolves while the opposing team is loading up, trying to keep him from being effective, will determine whether or not the Wolves can win in this series.

In the series against the Lakers, Edwards made the right play almost every time. He attacked the interior against a team missing a true rim protector and got off the ball effectively once that team started to bring an extra defender.

The matchup against the Warriors presents a similar opportunity for Edwards to solve. While Golden State does have better options on the perimeter to defend Edwards, like the Lakers, they lack a big rim-defender center. That archetype of player has shown to be able to limit Edwards in the playoffs. While Green is one of the best defenders in the NBA, his strong suit is not walling up against an opposing guard barreling toward the rim.

Golden State will throw a bunch of different looks at Edwards, including playing heavy in the gaps when he drives, bringing two to the ball to force it out of his hands, and the occasional zone defense, something that has given the Wolves issues in the past.

How the Timberwolves superstar can decipher what the Warriors are trying to do and his ability to solve it as quickly as possible will be the swing point in whether or not the Timberwolves win this series.

During the regular season, when film room hours are limited due to travel and the sheer number of games night to night, Edwards would often struggle with the varying defensive coverages he saw. During the Playoffs, though, Ant has shown the ability to take huge leaps forward in this area. Until proven otherwise, the assumption should be that Edwards is going to come through.