We are just under two weeks away from meaningful Minnesota Timberwolves basketball games back in our lives.
Despite reaching the Western Conference Finals the last two seasons, the NBA media machine seems to be split on Minnesota’s prospects heading into the 2025-26 NBA season. As Anthony Edwards leads the Timberwolves into the season opener in Portland on Oct. 22, there is still a major question around the league about whether the Timberwolves are a legitimate contender or just another team that is going to get spit up and churned out by the loaded Western Conference.
The Timberwolves are coming off the most successful two-season run in franchise history. In 2023-24, they won 56 games behind the best defense in the league and surprised everyone as they swept the Phoenix Suns in the first round and beat the defending champion Denver Nuggets in a seven-game classic in the second round.
The magic fizzled as Luka Doncic went full Godzilla and destroyed Minnesota’s chances of making the NBA Finals for the first time ever. The Karl-Anthony Towns trade on the eve of training camp threw off the team’s equilibrium until Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo got their sea legs halfway through the season.
Minnesota was 32-29 and in 10th place just after the All-Star break, before going 17-4 down the stretch and securing the sixth seed on the last day of the regular season. The defeated LeBron James, Doncic, and the Los Angeles Lakers in five games in the first round. Minnesota took advantage of a Steph Curry injury to decimate the Golden State Warriors in five games in the second round to reach the conference finals before running out of gas and losing to the eventual champion Oklahoma City Thunder in five games.
The Timberwolves return 10 of their top 11 scorers from last year. Edwards is poised to make yet another leap towards global superstardom as he enters Year 6. He’s flanked by Jaden McDaniels and Naz Reid, who will all be playing their sixth season together in Minnesota.
Rudy Gobert is a bald boy looking to regain his DPOY form in his fourth year with Minnesota. Randle and DiVincenzo had a full training camp. Mike Conley has vowed to improve from his career-worst season last year. And Terrence Shannon Jr., Rob Dillingham, and Jaylen Clark will crack the rotation in Year 2.
So why is there still dissent on Minnesota’s trajectory?
Most sportsbooks have Minnesota’s over/under win total at 49.5 or 50.5, depending on where you prefer to make your bets. That’s the seventh-highest total in the NBA and fourth-best in the West, trailing only the Thunder at 62.5 and the Nuggets at 53.5 or 54.5, and the Houston Rockets at 52.5 or 53.5.
Vegas also gave the Wolves the sixth-best odds to hoist the Larry O’Brien trophy at the end of the season. In NBA.com’s annual GM survey, GMs around the league voted the Timberwolves as the team that will finish fourth in the Western Conference, with 53 percent of the vote placing Minnesota in either the third or fourth seed. Bleacher Report is even higher on Minnesota’s prospects, projecting them to finish 55-27.
ESPN Bet even has the Timberwolves over/under at 49.5. While the betters and general managers like the Wolves to finish in the top half of the Western Conference playoff picture this season, the computers are a little more dubious. ESPN’s model, authored by Kevin Pelton, has the Wolves much further down the standings. His projection for the Timberwolves is 43.7 wins on the season. That would put the Wolves in eighth place in the West, according to Pelton. That’s just 0.1 wins ahead of the Dallas Mavericks, who selected first in the NBA Draft, and 0.2 wins ahead of the Sacramento Kings for the final play-in spot.
Pelton attributes the discrepancy to Shannon likely taking over Nickeil Alexander-Walker‘s role as a backup wing, who hasn’t played enough to give Pelton the confidence and appease his digital analytics overlords. Still, TSJ alone certainly isn’t going to lose Minnesota six games and be the reason they are fighting for their play-in lives at season’s end.
Pelton’s analytics have always been heavily conservative. However, 43 wins would be a huge disappointment for a franchise that is finally back to relevance after two decades in the dark. Pelton admits his algorithm has had its flaws in the past. He predicted the Timberwolves, coming off a 56-win season, would drop to 42.7 wins in 2024-25, only to see the Wolves best his projection by more than six wins with 49.
50 wins and a top-four finish in the West has to be the goal for the Minnesota Timberwolves this season. If I were a betting man (and legally allowed to bet in the state of California), I would pound the easy over on Pelton’s projection of 43.7 wins. Something would have to go horribly wrong for the Wolves to barely be above .500. I’d also hit the over on the Vegas over/under of 49.5. The Wolves are too deep not to win 50 games this year, even in the stacked West. Call me a homer, but put me down for 54 wins and the third seed in the West this year behind Oklahoma City and Denver.