Days after scoring his first career points, Rob Dillingham talked about the fan reaction days after scoring his first career points.
“Honestly, I’m just thankful to have fans and have them for real,” he said, smiling. “Just going to the table, and they’re cheering for me.”
Fans continue to cheer nightly for Dillingham, and some are beginning to ask why he isn’t playing as much as an 8th overall pick typically does. The answer is much more complicated than it would seem, especially given Dillingham’s strengths and weaknesses.
Dillingham has maximized his playing time
Dillingham has been as advertised. However, logging only 394 minutes has limited his production production. Three-hundred-ninty-four minutes is 6 hours and 34 minutes. If you’re watching The Lord of the Rings trilogy, you would only get past the Return of the King’s opening credits.
All that is to say, he hasn’t had many opportunities to produce.
Still, Dillingham has had success in those opportunities. He has a 45.6% field goal percentage and averaged 37.7% from three. As a result, Dillingham averages 5.9 points in just 12.7 minutes per game.
Size doesn’t matter
Despite his 6’3”, 175 lbs. frame, Dillingham is also scoring at an elite level around the rim in the restricted area. He has converted 62.5% of his attempts, including 56.7% on layups.
Given his quickness and ball handling, people anticipated Dillingham had scoring pop. Still, seeing it transfer smoothly from his single season at Kentucky to the NBA has been encouraging. Dillingham knives through defenses by using his size as an advantage. He keeps his dribble low and uses his quickness to blow by defenders for a layup.
Dillingham spends a lot of time practicing his finger roll layup, especially squeezing the ball off the backboard quickly.
The Wolves have needed his three-point shot
Dillingham’s three-point shot has also been a boon for a Wolves team whose offense occasionally becomes stagnant. Dillingham is shooting 38.2% on pull-up threes and an impressive 50.0% on three-point attempts in which he dribbles three or more times before taking the shot.
His three-point stats highlight Dillingam’s remarkable ability to create his own shot in space off isolation. Even at 20, Dillingham is starting to master pick-and-roll offense. He’s fantastic at hiding behind screens, changing direction, and trapping his defender before bursting out from behind the screen and rising up for threes.
He’s also creating for his teammates
Dillingham has transferred his ability to create for himself well from college, especially with the second unit, with aplomb this year. Dillingham has also shown he can create for his teammates, which draft pundits questioned because he only had 3.9 assists per game at Kentucky.
In the pick-and-roll and on fade plays, Dillingham has displayed an ability to rack up assists (2.5 per game) and find teammates, especially with Naz Reid. 23.2% of Dillingham’s total passes are to Reid. When Reid receives a pass from Dillingham, he’s shooting 48.6% on threes and 51.7% overall. Dillingham has 77 assists this year, and 25 have been to Reid.
Why isn’t Dillingham getting more playing time?
Given how well he’s played, it’s easy to see why fans want to see more of Dillingham. However, he still has some significant shortcomings.
Dillingham’s 14.1% turnover volume percentage is Minnesota’s second-highest behind Joe Ingles at 14.1%. Dillingham averages a team-high 3.7 turnovers per 36 minutes, higher than Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle, despite having significantly less usage. Dillingham’s turnover percentage is likely the biggest reason he’s fighting for more rotation minutes.
Unfortunately, Dillingham seems to be turning the ball over because he’s playing too fast. He occasionally loses his dribble or forces passes into passing lanes that defenses can easily pick off. However, that’s common with young guards. Players often must adjust to the NBA’s size and speed compared to college. With more experience, Dillingham will likely reduce his turnover.
Defense remains an issue
Dillingham’s other glaring weakness is on the defensive side of the floor. His 113.2 defensive rating is second-worst on the Wolves team, only behind Ingles. That’s mainly due to teams hunting mismatches due to his size. When switched onto a forward, Dillingham allows them to shoot 56.3% from the field and 66.7% from two-point range. Forwards often force the switch onto Dillingham and then overpower him for a layup or mid-range shot.
Dillingham’s shortcomings don’t appear to be caused by a lack of effort. Instead, they stem from a lack of strength and size. Dillingham should get stronger as he gets older and spends time on the court and in the gym. However, for this season, between the turnovers and defense, Dillingham has found himself bouncing in and out of the offense, depending on his performance.
The issue with Dillingham’s lack of playing time appears to be related to circumstances than his play. With the Wolves battling for playoff seeding after a meandering start to the season, Dillingham has made an impact with his offensive pop.
Time is on his side
Given the Wolves are in win-now mode, they likely can’t provide Dillingham the minutes he needs to work through his shortcomings as a rookie.
“It definitely feels better when you know you’re going to play,” Dillingham said after practice in late January, acknowledging his unique situation. “I don’t really know how many minutes I’m going to play. But I know it’s based on how I play, so I just have to play the best I can.”
With 26 games left in the regular season, the Timberwolves will likely continue to base Dillingham’s minutes on how he plays. That may seem unfair to some fans, but as the Wolves chase the 4-seed only 3.5 games behind Houston, they will need players to step up. If Dillingham continues to grow and he plays well, he could become the player that emerges into a valuable contributor through the home stretch of the season.