Rudy Gobert is one of basketball’s most misunderstood players.
The four-time Defensive Player of the Year doesn’t have an aesthetically pleasing game. His 7’1” frame, 7’9” wingspan, and size 20 feet limit his movement. Although Gobert’s on-court impact continues to pass the eye test, it is only further strengthened through advanced data.
When Gobert has been on the court, his Utah Jazz and Minnesota Timberwolves teams have been entirely different.
Even with Gobert’s ON/OFF dominance, there has been a consistent trend of in-season fluctuation since the Timberwolves acquired Gobert from Utah in the 2023 offseason. Gobert had expected growing pains as he adjusted to playing next to Karl-Anthony Towns. However, Gobert’s occasionally clunky play has continued long after the Wolves traded Towns to the New York Knicks.
Playing at an elite level for an entire season is an impossible task for NBA players in today’s era. Schedules are ultimately designed to create leaguewide exposure for teams and players rather than focus on player health. Back-to-backs and road trips continue to be the largest contributors to player inconsistencies and wear and tear.
Gobert has likely been a victim of this landscape, and much of it stems from his play style. Gobert is fighting Father Time. The Wolves rely on them to single-handedly anchor their defense in his age-33 season. Therefore, he has some excuses for the fluctuation in his performance.
Usually, at the beginning of the season, Gobert begins to look like a shell of his prior self. His defense is not as impactful, his offensive shortcomings are loud, and people question his future fit. However, like clockwork, Gobert has eventually found his stride and again proves to doubters that he is one of the league’s most impactful players.
Still, as the Timberwolves have begun to string together some of their most dominant, professional wins of the season, Gobert has found his elite form. He has once again proved that he is one of the NBA’s best floor raisers. Gobert has always been an advanced analytics darling, and his ON/OFF data has consistently proven how impactful he is as a rim protector.
Year after year, Gobert’s teams are statistically better per 100 possessions when he’s on the court, and are worse when he’s off it.
According to Basketball Reference, this season the Timberwolves are winning by 8.8 points per 100 possessions with Gobert on the court, and there is an 8.4-point difference when he is on the court compared to when he is off it. However, it is purely based on the difference in defensive rating (DRTG).
Cleaning the Glass, which sorts out garbage time and blowouts, paints a better picture of Gobert’s defensive dominance.
According to Cleaning the Glass, Gobert holds an ON/OFF differential of 7.6 points per 100 possessions. The Timberwolves have a better offense when Gobert is off the floor, scoring 8.5 points per 100 possessions more than when he is on the court, which ranks Gobert in the 9th percentile.
The key component is that Minnesota’s defense allows 16.1 fewer points per 100 possessions when Gobert is on the court than when he is off. That mark ranks in the 100th percentile. Visualizing how Gobert single-handedly anchors the Timberwolves’ top 10-ranked defense.
The context of Gobert’s defense is only exacerbated when the Timberwolves elect to play Naz Reid and Julius Randle in the frontcourt while Gobert sits.
In the 664 minutes with Gobert-Randle lineups, Minnesota has a DRTG of 110. Similarly, in the 404 minutes with Gobert-Reid lineups, Minnesota has a DRTG of 101.3.
The key is that the Timberwolves have a DRTG of 122.7 with Randle-Reid lineups when Gobert is on the bench.
An argument can be made that much of the reason Gobert’s ON/OFF DRTG data is among the best in the league is the continued defensive struggles of Minnesota’s Randle-Reid lineups.
Ultimately, the eye test of Gobert’s impact paints a clearer picture of why his dominance is real.
The question that remains with Gobert is how far his defensive prowess pushes the Timberwolves.
The trend with Gobert is that his offensive acumen cannot sustain when the Timberwolves have made it deep into the playoffs, and it has continued into this year’s regular-season data. Gobert is too impactful to be considered a specialist, and while his offensive game is minimal, he still leads the league in FG% this season at 72%.
However, when playoff defenses dial in their coverages away from Gobert and force others, like Anthony Edwards and Randle, to beat them through multiple defenders and increased pressure, it’s not going to result in many series wins against elite opponents. Whenever the Wolves have taken Gobert off the floor, it has been because his offense has held him down.
Part of the reason why the Gobert paradox is so strong is that his defense is truly elite. Not many players can find a way to pull their team down, despite being a lead driver of success in terms of winning. It’s why Gobert is such a difficult player to understand. Even if critics grow to appreciate his impact, there is a hard-capped ceiling.
In the grand scheme of winning a championship, Gobert’s ultimate impact is hard to fully understand. Ultimately, Gobert deserves utmost respect for his impact on Minnesota’s winning through his elite defensive prowess.