After sweeping the Suns, Anthony Edwards, Rudy Gobert and the Wolves earned a rematch with two-time MVP Nikola Jokić, Jamal Murray and the defending champion Nuggets.
The Minnesota Timberwolves for the first time in 20 years — back when 2004 MVP Kevin Garnett led the pack — have earned a spot in the Western Conference Semifinals. There, they’ll face the defending champion Denver Nuggets in a rematch of last year’s first-round series, in which Minnesota fell in five games.
Anthony Edwards led the Wolves to their first sweep in franchise history, a dominant dismantling of the Phoenix Suns, who now face as bleak of a team-building future as any team in the league. Jaden McDaniels was tremendous in defending each of the Suns’ star guards, while Rudy Gobert held down the paint and played Jusuf Nurkić off the floor. Karl-Anthony Towns stepped up defensively to help slow down Kevin Durant before delivering 28 crucial points in a Game 4 closeout win.
Nikola Jokić, who is set to earn his third straight MVP in four seasons in the coming weeks, was the heartbeat of the Nuggets’ 4-1 gentleman’s sweep of the Los Angeles Lakers. His running mate in the league’s best two-man game, Jamal Murray, drilled two game-winners at Ball Arena in soul-snatching fashion, demoralizing a Lakers team that led for nearly three quarters of game time in the five-contest affair.
This Wolves/Nuggets series looked quite different one year ago than it will this time around.
Minnesota didn’t have Naz Reid (broken wrist) or Jaden McDaniels (broken hand), and both Towns (calf) and Gobert (back, knee) were significantly less than 100%. Kyle Anderson (eye) also missed Game 5. All five are fully healthy entering this series. In a “look how far we’ve come” retrospective moment, Jaylen Nowell and Austin Rivers were the Wolves’ eighth and ninth men in the 2023 edition of this matchup.
Now, the biggest injury question for the Timberwolves isn’t one about any of their players, but rather Head Coach Chris Finch, who underwent surgery for a torn right patellar tendon on Wednesday, but was back at practice on Thursday.
Micah Nori says Finch’s surgery went well. Team still looking at options for him for Game 1, including joining them on the bench by moving some seats around or having him watch from a suite and joint them pregame and at halftime
— Jon Krawczynski (@JonKrawczynski) May 1, 2024
Micah Nori: “Even after the game, (Finch) was blaming me for the Cleveland loss, which probably cost him the voting in the Coach of the Year. To which I said, well anybody would do anything to get out of the last two minutes of a closeout game. So his spirits were good.”
— Jon Krawczynski (@JonKrawczynski) May 1, 2024
Denver, meanwhile, brought extremely reliable veterans off the bench in Bruce Brown and Jeff Green, who are now members of the Indiana Pacers and Houston Rockets, respectively. Nuggets Head Coach Michael Malone has replaced them with Christian Braun, Peyton Watson and DeAndre Jordan, with significantly mixed results that we’ll get into later.
But despite all of their injury misfortunes, the Wolves hung in there in the first round against the Nuggets, putting up a fight that drew praise from Bruce Brown, who called those five games “our toughest series” en route to winning an NBA title.
Tim Connelly:
For Denver
— Drafted/traded away Gobert
— Drafted Jokic
— Hired Malone
— Drafted Murray
— Drafted MPJ
— Traded for GordonFor Minnesota
— Traded for Gobert
— Traded for Conley
— Traded for NAW
— Traded for MonteThe Tim Connelly Bowl. pic.twitter.com/hdKGwvhO15
— StatMuse (@statmuse) April 30, 2024
Timberwolves President of Basketball Operations Tim Connelly knew that he built a special Nuggets team, but came to Minnesota already knowing what the standard in the Western Conference could be, because he helped set it. Given the history there, it should come as no surprise that Minnesota is arguably the Western Conference’s best equipped team to slow down this juggernaut Denver squad.
Now at full strength with a full two seasons of experience under their belt, the Wolves are putting on display everything that they and their fans thought they might be capable of this season. And after a euphoric opening playoff round win, we’ll get to see how sustainable the success is.
There is no better test than going up against the standard, a defending champion team led by a soon-to-be three-time MVP and arguably the most clutch playoff performer in the NBA in recent memory, surrounded by proven veteran role players that fit like a glove.
Led by a galvanizing, fearless alpha in Edwards, this pack will bring a confidence in what they’ve built all season to this point, and a playoff proof of concept they’ve sought for nearly two calendar years.
Let’s dive into it.
Matchups to Watch
How Will the Nuggets Defend Anthony Edwards?
The Suns, ironically, played with fire and got burnt. They sold out to stop Edwards by often bringing two players to the ball when a big set a screen for Ant. And when they didn’t, there was usually evident gap help ready to assist when Edwards beat the first line of defense. Phoenix didn’t have anyone on the roster who could consistently slow down Edwards by himself, so they had to get creative.
Denver faces a similar conundrum, but is unquestionably in a better spot in terms of options than Phoenix was.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is a pit bull defender who is as competitive as they come. He moves his feet extremely well at 6-foot-5, has tremendous hands on both ends of his 6-foot-8 wingspan, and often punches above his weight on the wing against taller, thinner stars. He will win some reps against Edwards, no question, is their best option over the course of the series, and will defend Ant most often. But while he has the quickness, KCP doesn’t have the strength to consistently contain Edwards — who is 20 pounds bigger — on the drive. Ant also looked to post KCP up in their regular season matchups — something he did to Bradley Beal in the last series.
Aaron Gordon is three inches taller and 30 pounds heavier than Caldwell-Pope, but doesn’t move as well laterally to stick with the explosive 22-year-old star. Edwards has also bullied him inside this year, which gives you an idea of how strong you have to be to hold Ant down for an entire game. But the former Georgia star knows Gordon’s feet aren’t quick enough to stay with him; he often dragged Gordon out onto the perimeter and either forced him to defend a straight line drive or fight over a screen, two things easier said than done when Edwards is involved.
Don’t be surprised if Braun, a 6-foot-6 wing off the bench, plays more than 13.1 minutes per game he did in the last series, as he’s shown some ability to force Ant east-to-west in these matchups.
Here is a look at how Denver has defended Edwards over the last two seasons, including last year’s playoffs:
The Nuggets frequently switch up top on screens that do not involve Jokić. So, expect to see Reid, Anderson and Towns set picks or engage Edwards in dribble hand-offs (DHOs) up top when Gobert is on the floor. This way, Ant could get more on-ball attacking opportunities against the likes of Porter Jr., Gordon, and Watson — more advantageous matchups than Caldwell-Pope or Braun. However, keep an eye out for Jokić playing up in coverage at or near the level of the screen, especially against slower defenders. Denver clearly wants to force Ant to go east-to-west rather than north-south, and pushing Ant further to the sideline with the high wall can accomplish that, just like the Wolves did against Ja Morant a couple years back.
I’ll show you some examples. First up, pretty simple. Edwards gets a pindown screen from Slow-Mo in the slot (a reverse UCLA cut if you will), and then Reid forces a switch up top onto Watson.
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Next, the Timberwolves will set up in a horns set quite a bit, often with two bigs setting screens on either side of Ant. Reid sets the first screen, before Gobert sets a flare screen for Reid over the top of the arc to potentially open up a 3-point look (they run this with KAT and Rudy a ton). KCP switches the first screen, but gets above the flare screen, leaving Gordon to defend Edwards on a second PnR with Gobert. Ant does the rest.
Minnesota will also run a similar action with a smaller shooter like Conley setting the initial screen so he can receive a flare screen.
Don’t be surprised if the Wolves run double drag screens up top above the arc to 1) make the Nuggets guards to get over multiple screens, and 2) force Jokić to decide whether he wants to play A) at the level to try and take away Ant’s driving (which would unlock lobs to Gobert) or B) in a drop to take away the roll, but give Ant a runway to take off to the rim.
Another way to accomplish this is with Edwards starting off-ball. Ant sets up in the corner, before Minnesota runs some Chicago action (pin-down into a DHO), where Edwards comes off a Gobert screen and then gets the ball from Reid, who then gets a step-up screen from Gobert. Watch Watson (Reid’s defender initially).
Watson is understandably confused at what to do, because KCP initially wants to stay connected to Edwards before Gobert then sets a screen for Reid. Ant doesn’t do a good enough job of taking advantage, but the action clearly created a window; Edwards took a massive leap in capitalizing on breakdowns in the Suns series and will need to do it again going up against the champs.
This will be especially important in the fourth quarter, where Edwards shined in Round 1, especially on the road. He only got better as the series went on, when things got closer in the final frame.
- Game 3 → 18 PTS on 5/7 FG, 8/8 FT, 1 AST, 1 TO,
- Game 4 → 16 PTS on 6/7 FG, 2/2 FT, 1 AST, 0 TOV, 2 BLK
It is scary to think about what Edwards might do against Denver this time around considering he had little time to prepare for them in last season’s playoffs coming off a pair of Play-In Tournament games. Ant last year in Round 1 averaged 31.6 points on 48.2/34.9/84.6 shooting splits, 5.2 assists to 1.6 turnovers, 5.0 rebounds, 2.0 blocks and 1.8 steals. Now that he’s had a week to prepare (given how much he said that helped him last series) — and showcased his tremendous growth when it comes to making the right reads against and punishing almost every possible defensive coverage thrown versus Phoenix — those numbers may be his floor.
Anthony Edwards on the past week: It wasn’t no days off. I feel like I got in the best shape of my life this week. Finchy’s ass was running me through all types of actions, double teams, triple teams, quadruple teams. I thank my coaches…I appreciate them man, put me in the… pic.twitter.com/tLJNlepQ7M
— Nadine Babu (@NadineBabu) April 20, 2024
Offensive Rebounding and Second Chance Scoring
The Timberwolves dominated the Suns on the offensive glass in Round 1. Minnesota collected 39.2% of their missed shots (the best in the NBA in the first round) and scored a staggering 17.3 second chance points per game (second to the New York Knicks) to Phoenix’s 10.0.
(For reference, the New York Knicks lead the NBA in offensive rebound percentage at 32.2% and the Utah Jazz lead in second chance points at 16.5 per game).
The Wolves bet that they could score on second chances more effectively than the Suns (who held the league’s most efficient transition offense) could get out and run on the break. Gobert, Towns and Co. can cash in those chips; they scored more second chance points than Phoenix scored in transition in each of the four games. It also worked to mitigate the 16.8 points off turnovers Minnesota allowed (which was fourth-worst in Round 1).
Denver, meanwhile, did an excellent job of preventing Los Angeles from impacting the game on the glass, holding the Lakers to a 21.2% offensive rebound rate (third-lowest) and just 10.0 second chance points (fifth-fewest). However, the Lakers were 29th in OREB% and dead last in second chance points during the regular season, so the Wolves present a very different challenge. The Nuggets ranked 15th in opponent OREB% during their 2023-24 campaign (28.2%), but allowed the eighth-fewest second chance points (13.2).
Whether or not Minnesota can replicate their scoring on second chances will go a long way in determining if they win this series or not. Denver ranked 23rd in transition frequency (16.0% of their total possessions, per Synergy Sports), one place ahead of Phoenix. But the Nuggets are significantly less efficient (1.113 points per possession, 22nd) than the Suns are (1.224 PPP, first) on the break.
The Timberwolves posted an OREB% of 22.5 against the Nuggets in four regular season matchups (fifth-lowest of any team), but did not have Towns for two of those matchups. KAT averaged 2.0 offensive boards per game in Round 1, third behind Gobert (3.8) and McDaniels (3.0). McDaniels corner crashing at the same rate he did in the opening round will be imperative to the Wolves continuing to not only create second chance scoring opportunities, but also to draw more fouls and make it as physical of a series as they can against a Denver team that will have a tight rotation.
Minnesota posted the highest offensive rating (123.2) and the best true shooting percentage (60.3%) of Round 1 in part because of how many second chance and free throws they generated. Continuing that effort in Round 2 against a stout Nuggets half-court defense will be key.
Free Throwing
The Nuggets ranked 29th in the NBA in free throw attempts this season (19.9) and shot just 15.8 in Round 1 (second-last). The Wolves, meanwhile, ranked eighth (22.9) during the season, but shot up to first (28.5) in the playoffs because of different players drawing fouls.
All five members of the Wolves’ starting five had at least one game shooting five free throws and Minnesota had three different players shoot at least seven freebies in a game. Denver had just three instances of a player shooting seven-plus free throws (Jokić had all three). Edwards did this three times, as did Gobert, who averaged 6.3 free throws — the second-most he’s ever had in a playoff series. Not only that, but the three-time All-Star made 22 of his 25 attempts (88.8%), easily his highest single-series free throw percentage of his career (previous record was 78.3% in 2019 Round 1 vs. the Houston Rockets). The Timberwolves had five players rank in the top-40 of free throw attempts in Round 1, while the Nuggets had just one (Jokić).
But the Wolves, despite shooting the most free throws in the opening round, also gave up the second-most (28.0 per game). Minnesota won the free throw battle 27-10 and 37-27 in their two wins over Denver; in the Wolves’ two losses, they narrowly won the free throw battle (23-22) on March 19, and narrowly lost (23-21). The Timberwolves’ 0.330 free throw rate against the Nuggets this season ranked tied for second in the NBA.
Minnesota is able to stay out of foul trouble and outscore Denver from the charity stripe, good things will happen.
Bench Scoring
The Timberwolves have a real opportunity to separate themselves from the Nuggets over the course of a seven-game series because of their depth.
Malone was noticeably hesitant to play his bench players in the opening-round series. Denver bench players played just 222 minutes in the first-round series, 18.5% of the available 1,200 minutes across five games. That 18.5% share is the lowest of any team in the first round. Nuggets players off the bench struggled profusely, scoring 11.8 points per game (second-worst) on 31.0% shooting and 19.5% from deep, which were both the worst marks in the NBA in Round 1.
Finch, however, was comfortable using his bench. The Timberwolves’ reserves played 29.0% of available minutes, eighth-most. NAW and Co. scored the second-most points (27.0), made the second-most 3-pointers (3.8) despite shooting the sixth-worst percentage (28.8%), generated the most assists (7.0) and registered the third-highest collective plus-minus (+15).
Denver ranked 25th in bench scoring all season, while Minnesota ranked 21st, so these two teams are trending in opposite directions in the postseason.
Here is a different look at how much the Nuggets starters played in Round 1:
(Denver lost Game 4)
- Murray: 39 | 40 | 41 | 39 | 41
- KCP: 37 | 35 | 35 | 40 | 33
- MPJ: 38 | 38 | 35 | 40 | 46
- Gordon: 32 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 46
- Jokić: 39 | 41 | 39 | 41 | 41 | 41
Given how hard Murray, Gordon and Jokić play, it is extremely difficult to consistently play 39-41 minutes over the course of a series and maintain your level of excellence.
Gordon picked up two fouls in the first 5:19 of Game 1, but was their leader in minutes in Games 2 through 5. Getting him in foul trouble should be one of Towns’ and Edwards’ top priorities offensively.
It is true that while Watson has had explosive moments (including a phenomenal effort in the final regular season matchup against the Wolves, in which he blocked and dunked everything), it is pretty clear that Malone does not trust him in a playoff setting as much as he did Green or Brown last season. The latter two players played 26.6 and 17.2, respectively. Braun got 13.0 minutes off the bench as a rookie during Denver’s championship run last season, third-most on the team. This season, he’s leading the bench in minutes at 13.1. Pretty jarring.
Especially with Murray seemingly less than 100% with a left calf strain and KCP turning his ankle a couple times in the last series, I find it hard to believe that Malone can expect to keep playing his bench as little as he is without there being some more serious repercussions, whether that be less impactful basketball or injuries, or both.
A Clash of the Third Quarter Titans
Both of these teams destroyed their opponents in the third quarters of Round 1.
Minnesota after ranking first all season long with a +13.1 net rating (116.5 ORTG / 103.4 DRTG) carried that into the playoffs with a net rating of +38.0 (140.2 ORTG / 102.2 DRTG), the best mark in the league, while the Nuggets were trailing close behind at +35.0 (131.6 ORTG / 96.7 DRTG), good for third.
But they did it in different ways. Minnesota shot the leather off the ball, connecting on a league-leading 55.9% of their 3-pointers (19/34), while Denver turned stops into points, ranking first in both fast break points (7.4) and points in the paint (15.2). The Nuggets took care of the ball well, posting Round 1’s top third quarter assist-to-turnover ratio (4.89) and lowest turnover percentage (7.7%).
The Wolves rode a combined 18.5 third quarter points per contest from Edwards and Towns, who shot a combined 27/47 (57.4%) from the floor and 10/18 from 3 (55.5%). While Finch and Co. probably can’t expect that shooting to sustain, they can rely upon Alexander-Walker’s energy and efficient playmaking. NAW shot 6/8 from deep, but also recorded seven assists, zero turnovers and one steal in his 27.1 third quarter minutes in Round 1, and paced Minnesota with a +38 mark.
Porter Jr. was the primary scoring weapon of choice for the Nuggets. He scored 8.4 points per third quarter, connecting on seven of his nine 2-point attempts (77.7%) and 7/13 from deep (53.8%). Jokić hilariously dished out 20 assists with just three turnovers, and matched Porter Jr.’s scoring mark.
Given how well both of these teams are executing in the fourth quarter — Minnesota’s +12.3 playoff net rating is fifth and Denver’s +10.3 mark is seventh — building momentum entering the fourth will be key. The Suns really struggled to climb back into games against the Timberwolves’ half-court defense in the the final frame. And while Denver has one of the best clutch-time offenses the league has seen in quite some time, it is hard to continually find the bottom of the net against Gobert, McDaniels, Alexander-Walker and Edwards when they’re all locked in.
X-Factors
Minnesota: Karl-Anthony Towns
It feels odd to call Towns an X-factor considering he was an All-Star this year, but he may have the largest impact on who wins this war.
Defense
KAT will defend Jokić, often in 1-on-1 situations. While Towns has had his struggles on the defensive side throughout his career, he has been at his best over the last two seasons in a pretty specific, yet very relevant situation — playing against Jokić with Gobert protecting the rim as a roamer off of Gordon.
Since the start of the 2022-23 season (including last year’s playoffs) Towns has held Jokić to 48 points on 46 shots and just 37.0% shooting from the floor according to NBA.com’s matchup data. That is by far the lowest field goal percentage allowed by anyone who has defended Jokić for as many possessions as Towns has (143.4).
The next lowest mark is the 49.6% field goal percentage allowed by the Rockets’ Alperen Şengün. Three and four are Sacramento Kings center Domantas Sabonis (51.5%) and Phoenix Suns center Jusuf Nurkić (51.7%). Notice a clear theme here? Jokić’s efficiency generally dips when playing against very physical bigs. You start to see the more elite, yet slighter of frame defensive bigs — Bam Adebayo, Anthony Davis and Rudy Gobert — in the fourth, fifth and six spots.
Towns does an excellent job of getting physical with Joker without immediately fouling him. Very few have figured out how to toe that line, but KAT seemingly has solved the puzzle as well as any of the NBA’s big men have.
Another key piece of that puzzle is limiting Jokić as a playmaker by taking his space and showing your hands to help take away passing angles. Jokić has recorded at least seven assists just twice in his last six matchups with the Wolves and Minnesota has forced him to commit more turnovers than assists in two of his last four meetings with the Timberwolves. A big part of that is a credit to Anderson, Reid and Garza, who stepped up in Towns’ absence for the final three Nuggets games, but Towns helped give them a template to follow, which is important, too.
Offense
If KAT plays the way he did against the Suns, he is going to find plenty of success against the Nuggets offensively. Towns was decisive, attacked under control for the most part, and generally played in the low post and above the break for the majority of the series.
He scored a very efficient 19.3 points per game on 53.1/52.9/88.9 shooting splits, grabbed 9.5 rebounds, and maintained a assist-to-turnover ratio (1.43) above 1.00 in a series for the first time in his playoff career. It should come as no coincidence that Towns in this series also shot 3-pointers at the highest frequency (34.7% of his total field goal attempts) of his career.
If he can continue to do all of those things against another smaller defender in Gordon, there is no reason he can’t find success. Towns against the Nuggets last season found his groove after a slow start from deep (3/12) in the first two games. He scored 23.3 points per game on 55.8% shooting, but still struggled from deep (25.0%). Towns played inside more with his 3-point shot not falling and drew 24 free throws over the final three games of the series, but crumbled when Denver brought double teams in the post, and turned it over a ton (0.67 A/TO ratio over the final three games).
Towns following the blueprint that is there for his success on both ends of the floor is what it will take for Minnesota to continue their historic season. It feels fitting that a whether or not the Wolves take down the champs and finally vault themselves into contending territory may rest on KAT’s shoulders.
Denver: Aaron Gordon
Conversely for Denver, they will need a monster effort from Gordon.
He is the only player that will spend time as the primary matchup for Edwards and Towns, needs to rebound extremely well to limit Minnesota’s second chance scoring, and will be the next man up as a scorer if Murray or Porter Jr. are struggling to fill it up against McDaniels and Edwards, respectively.
Gordon averaged 13.9 points on 55.6/29.0/65.8 shooting splits, a clear dip in both scoring output and efficiency from the Nuggets’ championship run a season ago. But when he does put the ball in the hole, Denver reaps the profits; the Nuggets are 18-4 (67-win pace) this season when Gordon scores at least 17 points and 8-1 when he scores at least 20.
The former Arizona star was terrific in the first three games of the first-round series, scoring 55 points (18.3 PPG), grabbing 33 rebounds (11 RPG) and holding an assist-to-turnover ratio of 13-3 (4.3), headlined by a 29-point, 15-rebound effort in Game 3 that helped cover up slow starts from Murray, MPJ and KCP.
But then Gordon’s scoring effectiveness dipped in Games 3 and 4 as his minutes increased. He scored just 14 points on 6/13 shooting (1/4 from 3) and had five turnovers. The great thing about Gordon, though, is he finds a way to make an impact regardless. After recording just three rebounds and four assists in a Game 4 loss, he finished strong with 13 boards and six assists in the close-out game, playing a team-high 46 minutes.
While he is not immediately thought of as a threat when you think of the Nuggets, Gordon is crucial to everything they do on both ends of the floor. His timely offensive rebounds, lob finishes, cuts to the basket, blocks at the rim, and transition buckets often turn high tides into tsunami waves that completely overwhelm opponents and energize his teammates. But that goes away if the Timberwolves are able to force him into foul trouble — something Minnesota did in Games 2, 4 and 5 in their first-round series in 2023. But unlike last season, the Nuggets can’t turn to Brown or Green.
Key Question That Will Decide The Series
Can The Wolves Consistently Limit Jamal Murray Like They Did Devin Booker?
Jaden McDaniels was my X-factor in the last series preview, and boy did he deliver. He made Devin Booker’s life a living hell for four games, holding the four-time All-Star to 18 points on 4/12 shooting and committed just one shooting foul across 106 possessions defending Booker in Round 1, according to NBA.com matchup stats. Now, he’ll draw Murray, one of the league’s preeminent playoff risers and superstars.
Murray is entering his 11th career playoff series with an 8-2 record and a 24.9 points per game scoring average that easily surpasses his overall 17.5 PPG career mark or his regular season high of 21.2 PPG in both 2021 and 2024. Simply put, the dude finds a way in the playoffs to turn it up to 15 on a 1-10 scale.
The Kitchener, Ontario native has many of the same skills Booker does. Murray is an elite shot-maker in pick-and-roll, can hit a flurry of difficult step-back jumpers in the mid-range, has a crazy impressive scoring package in the paint, and uses his strong frame at 6-foot-4, 215 pounds to play through contact at all three levels. But unlike Booker, Murray has the best possible pick-and-roll partner in Jokić (with whom Jamal has telepathic chemistry), is a more willing playmaker, and doesn’t flop his way through games. Booker drew a free throw on 26.7% of his reps as a PnR ball-handler, whereas Murray did so on just 5.9% of his reps on double the volume, per Synergy. Murray is a gamer in every sense of the word. But
But… Murray was pretty inefficient for his standards in Round 1. He shot better than 40% from the floor just once (Game 5, 46.4%), and made just 10 of his 34 3-point attempts (29.4%). The former Kentucky star made up for it with a 3.00 assist-to-turnover ratio, but will face significantly better defense in Round 2 going up against McDaniels, Alexader-Walker and Edwards.
McDaniels has only played Murray five times throughout their careers, which is wild considering that Jaden has seen Jokić 11 times. But in those five games, Murray has torched McDanels, scoring 48 points on 19/28 shooting (67.9%) shooting and dropping 12 assists to just four turnovers.
Alexander-Walker, though, has held his own against Murray. Across 227 possessions in eight matchups, NAW has held his countryman to 40 points on 17/48 shooting (35.4%) and 4/14 from deep (28.6%). NAW’s relentless ball pressure and screen navigation proved to be a difficult matchup for Murray, who is used to creating space in which to work by coming around screens and snaking into the paint. Alexander-Walker’s intensity as an on-ball defender is extremely rare and translates very well onto some of the league’s top scoring guards, especially in a playoff setting.
It begs the question… if Alexander-Walker is the better option on Murray, should he close again in this series?
McDaniels, for as tremendous as he’s been thus far in a playoffs with less generous whistles, may be better suited to defend Porter Jr., who has been tremendous in his own right since the All-Star break. MPJ averaged 18.3 PPG on 50.9/40.4/90.7 shooting splits to go with 7.1 rebounds and a positive A/TO ratio (1.33) in the 27 post-ASB games — all incredible numbers for him. He improved upon that in Round 1, averaging 23 PPG on 55.3/48.8/76.9 splits and 8.4 boards, headlined by a combined 53 points on 9/18 shooting from deep in the final two games. But part of what makes Porter Jr. great is his ability to kill defenses when one of Jokić or Murray gets into a rhythm. If NAW is able to consistently slow down a potentially less than 100% version of Murray and McDaniels is able to bother MPJ, who normally doesn’t catch matchups against defenders as good as Jaden, Minnesota may be cooking with gas.
Towns trusted the process of NAW closing over him when the Wolves were looking to hang on to big fourth quarter leads against the Suns. Would he do it again? Or would Finch/Nori trust Edwards to handle the lead guard duties without Conley and empower Towns to be impactful down the stretch?
Those are all fascinating questions, but they are all downstream from the main question — can the Wolves effectively limit Murray? If McDaniels can do it, then you take your chances with Edwards on MPJ, because Jaden probably has a higher ceiling on both ends of the floor than NAW does. Time will tell. But if Murray is able to be consistently great (especially late in games) against the strongest part of the Wolves’ team (perimeter defense), then winning this series will be an uphill climb for Minnesota.
Prediction
Ever since the Timberwolves brought the brooms out this past Sunday night and I could finally begin to think about a Wolves/Nuggets rematch series, I’ve thought about a quote from three-time Super Bowl champion Bill Walsh.
“The culture precedes positive results. It doesn’t get tacked on as an afterthought on your way to the victory stand. Champions behave like champions before they’re champions. They have a winning standard of performance before they are winners.”
The Nuggets certainly fit that bill last season.
They were not the most talented team. But they had a lead dog everyone got behind, played extremely hard and held each other to an incredibly high standard every night, and were led for a coach who had the ultimate respect of his players. Despite falling down 3-0 in the first round of the playoffs the prior season, the Nuggets dug deep despite being shorthanded to win Game 4 at home before losing in five games to the eventual champion Golden State Warriors. And when they could’ve made major changes despite not seeing things through at full strength, they kept their core together. Then, they came back and paced the Western Conference with dominant play, but still hadn’t earned the respect of the league at large entering the postseason.
Sound familiar?
The Timberwolves have followed almost exactly the same script as the 2022-23 Nuggets, and now find themselves with an opportunity to take firm control of their destiny in the Western Conference. Just like the Denver team last season, they have an ultimate belief in themselves regardless of who they’ll face on the other side.
“I think it’s been the culture change. The belief started the end of last season, going into training camp. Our first team meeting, we talked about what our goals are. It’s not to come in and win a playoff game, playoff series, it’s to win a championship and what are willing to do to sacrifice to do that,” Conley said after the Game 4 win in Phoenix about what clicked from last season to this season.
“It started in Abu Dhabi and since then we’ve been building those habits, building that culture and all the guys have bought in and you’re seeing collectively right now and just really, really cool to see them all come together.”
Minnesota has adopted the personality of Edwards, who is drawing non-hyperbolic comparisons to the greatest competitor the game has ever seen, and flanked by two stars in Towns and Gobert willing to sacrifice however they can to back him up on offense and defense, respectively. The Timberwolves 1) have a historically elite defense that is built for stopping this opponent, 2) are a team now fully embracing its big identity on both ends of the floor, 3) are the deepest team in the conference, 4) have a complementary blend of experienced veterans in Conley and Anderson, and fearless young guns in Edwards, McDaniels, Reid and Alexander-Walker with a killer mindset. But most importantly, they are more connected than any Timberwolves team we’ve ever seen.
While Denver’s starting five is equal parts talented, experienced and connected, I have a hard time believing that Malone can continue to play his starters at the rate he did in the first round without them either wearing down or losing effectiveness against a tenacious Minnesota rotation. The Wolves are better defensively, bigger, and perhaps just as talented; but, like it was against the Suns, it is their combination of depth and versatility, and a fourth quarter killer in Edwards that will get them over the hump against a Nuggets team that the Timberwolves have had a couple of extra days to prepare for mentally and physically.
Bet against this version of Anthony Edwards at your own risk.
Wolves in 6.