The Oklahoma City Thunder advanced to the Western Conference Finals for the first time since 2016 after defeating the Denver Nuggets. This series tested the Thunder’s resolve and whether they were ready to meet the moment. After the Thunder’s Game 6 loss, they relied on what had gotten them to the number one seed in Game 7: their defense. In Game 7, the Thunder forced 22 turnovers and had 39 points off those turnovers en route to their 125-93 blowout victory. Now they have a showdown with the Minnesota Timberwolves in the Western Conference Finals. The Thunder will need to rely on certain X-Factors on offense and defense in this series if they want to reach the NBA Finals.
The Thunder played the Timberwolves four times this season, splitting the season series 2-2. However, the Thunder should have won the season series 3-1 if it wasn’t for a fourth quarter collapse where they blew a 16-point lead in the final four minutes of the game. Regardless, this should be a very entertaining series, just like the Thunder and Nuggets series was. Let’s dive into the Thunder’s X-Factors on offense and defense against the Timberwolves.
The Thunder’s X-Factors on Offense and Defense Vs. Minnesota
Thunder’s Offensive X-Factor
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander played like an MVP for the Thunder in the Nuggets series and was able to outshine, or match, Nikola Jokic’s output. In addition, Jalen Williams struggled for the most part in the series but responded big time for Game 7 to help them advance. However, both of those players will not be the offensive X-Factor on offense; they still need both players to play well, but they aren’t X-Factors.
The X-Factor for the Thunder’s offense against the Timberwolves will be Chet Holmgren. Holmgren had a quiet series against Denver, averaging 14.1 points per game, shooting 22.2% from three. However, he will need to come up big against Minnesota. The Timberwolves have multiple players they can throw at Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen to make their lives difficult on the offensive end. In addition, the Timberwolves could try running a version of the zone that the Nuggets had success with vs OKC. However, the Timberwolves don’t have a good option to throw at Chet.
If Chet can knock down threes at the rate he was doing in the regular season, it will do a ton of things for their offense. It would force the Timberwolves to have to sit Rudy Gobert. It could force Minnesota out of whatever zone they throw at the Thunder. Finally, it would open up driving lanes for Gilgeous-Alexander and Williams to attack, especially if Gobert has to sit with no rim protector.
Thunder’s Defensive X-Factors
The Thunder has the number one defense in the NBA, and they will need to rely on it again in this series against the Timberwolves. You can point to a ton of players on defense who could become X-Factors in this series however, we want to highlight three. Those three players are Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace, and Lu Dort. All three of them came up huge in Game 7 against the Nuggets, and they will need to come up big again.
These three guys will be spending the majority of the game on either Anthony Edwards or Julius Randle. If they can slow them down or limit them, the Thunder have a good chance of winning this series. Wallace and Dort will most likely split time covering Edwards, while Caruso will most likely draw Randle when he is in. If they are unable to slow this duo down, the Timberwolves will most likely win this series, as it will open a ton for the Timberwolves’ offense.
The Series Prediction
Finally, to the series prediction, as we laid out who the Thunder’s X-Factors are on offense and defense. There are tons of stats and storylines to follow in this series; however, this series will come down to three things. The first one is whoever wins the three-point battle. Both teams are great defensively, and they will need to hit open shots to help open up the shells of the defense. The second one is who can slow down or stop the other team’s duo the best. The Timberwolves and the Thunder have elite defenders, and they will need to slow down the other team’s stars.
Finally, the third thing will be whoever wins the turnover battle and can score more consistently on each other’s defense. These games are going to be low-scoring and a battle to get through, and the team that can carve out a more consistent offense will have a huge advantage in this series. Ultimately, the Thunder have been the best team in the league all year, they match up well against the Timberwolves, and with that said, we have the Thunder winning this series in six. However, this series could very well end in five or go to seven, depending on how each team can overcome certain things.
The Last Word
The Thunder were able to get through their toughest test against the Nuggets. In that series, we saw the Thunder grow as a team and prove that they were ready for the big stage. The Thunder are the best team left in the playoffs and should be huge favorites to win it all. The path to the Finals is wide open for the Thunder, and they will not get an easier path than this one to win it all again. If the Thunder are unable to, it will be a big disappointment for one of the best regular-season teams we have ever seen in the NBA.
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