The Timberwolves’ Late-Game Collapses Highlight Their Critical Flaws This Season

One historic late-game collapse is usually enough for a team to dig deep and reflect on itself. Sometimes, the players have a closed-door meeting. Other times, it’s a public call to action from a star player. However, the Minnesota Timberwolves may have needed two of these losses to address some of their issues.

On Friday night, the Timberwolves lost to the Phoenix Suns, 114-113. The Suns stormed back down eight with 50 seconds to go, without their star Devin Booker, who had fouled out with 3:23 to go in the fourth.

The Wolves dropped their next game to the Sacramento Kings, playing without their star Domantas Sabonis, in a similar fashion. The Wolves led by 10 with three minutes to go before falling in overtime, 117-112.

The back-to-back losses occurred on the road, and no beat reporters traveled with the team. Therefore, no one is really sure how the Timberwolves handled the losses, because no one entered the locker room after the game. However, the two losses highlight some of Minnesota’s critical flaws this season.

Perhaps most glaring, the Wolves are a mistake-prone team. They rank 13th in turnovers per game and 10th in turnovers in the 4th quarter per game. Based on their turnover percentage, roughly 15.0% of their possessions in a game result in a turnover, which increases to 15.7% in the fourth quarter.

That alone certainly dooms a team to mediocrity, but Minnesota’s offensive style typically fuels high-turnover teams.

The Timberwolves are running the third-highest rate of isolation in the NBA, with 9.8% of their possessions involving a ballhandler who’s not looking to pass, or an average of 11.1 iso possessions per game. The Wolves have benefited from their style. They are fifth in the league in points per isolation play at 1.0. Still, their turnover percentage out of iso (10.8%) is over double the Los Angeles Clippers (5.3%), who lead the league in iso plays per game.

However, the Wolves kind of have to run an iso offense. Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle are isolation-heavy players. Edwards ranks second in isolation percentage in the NBA, with 26.5% of his offense coming off isolation plays. Randle is also ninth in the NBA in isolation percentage at 18.4%. Combined, they average 10.5 of Minnesota’s 11.1 isolation possessions per game.

Minnesota’s iso issue reared its head at the end of both blown games. It was primarily in Edwards’ calling an isolation play and attempting to get himself a shot. As Edwards runs in isolation, there is little to no off-ball movement. Against Sacramento, the heroics fell flat, and the ancillary players made crucial mistakes. They had similar miscues and an isolation-heavy offense in the Suns game.

Inevitably, the coaching deserves some blame. The scheme seems consistent at this point in the season, even when less iso may lead to more production. Whether it’s intentional or players opting to play into the isolation offense and shying away from more free-flowing offense, it is fair to question how much Finch, or any coach, is culpable for the meltdowns.

Finch shares some of the blame in Sacramento. Edwards finished the fourth quarter running five consecutive isolation plays, all of which resulted in Edwards missing the shot or a last-second kick-out pass to Randle or Jaden McDaniels missing. The Wolves played similarly in overtime, with Edwards taking 6 of the total 9 shots.

Furthermore, the crucial turnovers by McDaniels, Rudy Gobert, Donte DiVincenzo, and Randle, all due to mental mistakes, raise questions about Finch’s timeout usage. Could he have done more to calm everyone down and take control of the game?

Realistically, just as the isolation style in play or the turnover-prone offense doesn’t fully explain the collapses, Finch’s lack of playcalling or timeouts doesn’t fully explain the losses.

Particularly frustrating is that changes to the isolation play, the turnovers, and the coaching are exceptionally hard to make at this point in the season. From a trade perspective, they don’t have as many assets as other teams, and the most tradeable players they have may be more valuable to the Wolves than opposing teams. League rules also prohibit trading Randle and Naz Reid until January 15th because they signed contracts in the offseason.

Even if Finch shares in the blame, mid-season coaching changes rarely result in success. Switching from Finch to an in-house option like assistant coach Micah Nori would likely mean the offense and its issues would continue until the offseason.

It leaves the Timberwolves in an impossible situation. The sample size is large enough now to say that the Wolves are a flawed team, and opponents are exposing those issues. However, the solutions are not as easy as hopping on a trade machine or firing the coach. Maybe it’s a locker room meeting, perhaps it’s a call to action. Ultimately, the Wolves need something to change for them to finish the season differently from last year.