Anthony Edwards’ hamstring injury, which will sideline him for a minimum of two weeks, has further complicated the Minnesota Timberwolves’ start to the season. It’s still very early, but there are already some contradictory takeaways regarding the roster that have hindered the Wolves early.
People who follow the Timberwolves closely expected it to be a transition year for them. Even though the franchise reached the Western Conference Finals again last season, they would need prospects Rob Dillingham, T.J. Shannon, and Jaylen Clark to be ready to replace the departed Nickeil Alexander-Walker. On the other side of the age spectrum, the team is also trying to navigate Rudy Gobert and Mike Conley’s aging curves.
Within the age dynamics, the Timberwolves have found themselves at a crossroads in deciding how to use their lineup combinations and roster. The core issue is that the players’ strengths and weaknesses contradict what has made the Wolves so good over the last three seasons.
It starts with Conley
Mike Conley, 38, continues to look like a shell of himself.
There were some concerns with Conley last season. However, Chris Finch limited Chris Finch’s load to a career-low 24.7 minutes per game, allowing Conley to gradually reduce his output. Even with the decrease in on-court minutes, Conley has become less effective at everything that made him so good in 2023-24.
Conley’s regression last season had a domino effect on Minnesota’s offense. His three-point shooting was bound to regress from his career-high mark of 44.2% in 2023-24. However, it was the regression within the staple actions that Chris Finch and his staff heavily implemented in Conley and Rudy Gobert’s shared minutes that stifled the offense.
When Conley and Gobert cannot find offense within their empty side pick-and-rolls and Conley’s flex actions, it wastes most of the possession. Conley and Gobert flowing into their two-man game is what unlocked Gobert offensively in the first place. Other players are unlikely to get touches, raising the question of whether focusing on offense around Conley and Gobert is a feasible approach at this stage.
Conley and Gobert need to be involved on offense somehow, but if what made them their best is not working, where do they pivot?
Rudy Gobert’s offense-to-defense volatility creates an uneasy circumstance
The sample size is very small, but through four games, the Timberwolves have a 106.3 offensive rating with Gobert on the court, compared to a 139 defensive rating when he’s off.
Gobert is hindering the Timberwolves so much at the start of the season that they need him on the court. Otherwise, they have one of the worst defenses in the league. If he’s on the court, they have one of the worst offenses in the league.
It is still very early in the season, and it’s difficult to come to a full conclusion with Gobert’s minutes. Still, this is an issue that has hindered Minnesota’s ceiling in the playoffs.
Anthony Edwards being sidelined will naturally hurt Minnesota’s offensive rating. Still, if the staggered trend between offensive and defensive ratings continues this drastically with Gobert, it will ultimately continue to hinder the team when Edwards returns. The Timberwolves don’t have as many above-average defensive pieces around Gobert as they did in the past, and they’re ultimately relying upon Gobert and Jaden McDaniels to drive success on this side of the ball..
The four-game sample sizes are small, but it is still worth monitoring closely as the season continues and the Timberwolves try to find their identity.
Dillingham, Shannon, and Clark’s development is going to take more time
Young players have a difficult time finding their roles under Chris Finch. Finch prefers consistency and reliability in his rotation. Young prospects often struggle under Finch because growing pains in their development can hinder their future minutes and opportunities.
The goal is to fully incorporate all into the team and rotation. However, when the Timberwolves are looking to compete in the Western Conference, it’s difficult to ask for development while winning as much as they have the past two years. It’s easy to look at Oklahoma City playing their younger players and reaping the benefits along the way, but managing two timelines at once is still easier said than done.
Clark is consistent but one-dimensional
Jaylen Clark has had the most consistent role under Finch. However, he’s also by far the most low-maintenance player out of the trio. Clark plays stout defense and doesn’t need the ball offensively. Therefore, he’s an easy player to plug into spot minutes.
Similar to Gobert, Clark brings little to no offense. He’s a fantastic defender, but opponents are already treating him like a non-shooter and sagging off to help others.
Clark also doesn’t have much of a downhill driving game to counter defenses. He’s a good cutter, but his cuts are less effective when he cannot finish possessions. However, Clark’s one-sided impact is just another issue that forces Chris Finch to be very calculated with his lineup combinations.
Shannon needs to be more consistent
For TJ Shannon, it’s about finding comfort. Shannon had impressive flashes in limited minutes last season, but now he has to learn to be a consistent contributor every game.
Shannon is a better player than Dillingham and Clark right now, but he still has areas he needs to grow in this season. His biggest learning curve is controlling his pace offensively. Shannon is athletically gifted. He just has to figure out better ways not to fully rely on his burst off the dribble, and most importantly, his strong left hand.
Dillingham is the biggest project
Meanwhile, Rob Dillingham remains the trickiest evaluation of the trio.
Dillingham has not yet had the opportunity to showcase his skills. It’s a complicated situation to decipher. Players need to be incredibly good to even be average in the NBA as a small guard in today’s era. Defensive fit is a weakness for most small guards. Still, Dillingham is struggling to find anything at this moment.
He thrived on his scoring ability at Kentucky. As he adjusts to the NBA, Dillingham is playing more as a pass-first guard, which limits his game. Combine his low-impact offense with poor defense, and it’s hard for Dillingham to find minutes, particularly when the Timberwolves are already struggling defensively.
Dillingham will get much more opportunity as the Wolves look for anything between Conley, Bones Hyland, and him at point guard. He just needs to find a way to tap back into his raw scoring ability.
The Wolves in a period of discovery without Edwards
Moving forward, as the Timberwolves look to fight through their next 7 games over the next two weeks without Anthony Edwards, there will be uneasy lineups and fluctuations among the young players and veterans. Much of it is going to come down to garnering a larger sample size and Chris Finch being flexible.
If the Timberwolves continue on this path with little change, they will not find much success during the stint without Edwards and will still have many of the same issues when he returns.