Almost every NBA team has a franchise-altering move nobody will forget.
Some are historic decisions, like LeBron James signing with the Miami Heat or Shaquille O’Neal going to L.A. Others are trades, like when the Seattle Supersonics sent Ray Allen to the Boston Celtics or the Oklahoma City Thunder dealt James Harden to the Houston Rockets.
The Rudy Gobert trade is that move for the Minnesota Timberwolves.
We still don’t know how the Gobert trade and Minnesota’s decision to send D’Angelo Russell to the Utah Jazz for Mike Conley and Nickeil Alexander-Walker will pan out. The Gobert side has a real chance of going down as the best trade in franchise history. However, it’s also in danger of turning back into a trade that garnered ridicule from the NBA media at large.
The trade ultimately hinges on one factor: The Wolves must relearn how to play with Rudy Gobert.
Conley explains how difficult this can be.
“The first year, it’s such a work in progress for both sides,” Conley described in September of 2023 of how he adapted to Gobert in Utah. “And the second year, you let go of a little bit of that frustration of certain things that don’t work.”
As Conley explained, Gobert is a unique player who requires time to understand as a person. It takes time to learn his strengths, and the Wolves had trouble adjusting to him the season after the trade, which Conley described as a work in progress for both sides. In the second year, you learn to adapt and let go of plays or sets that may not work.
The Wolves finished Gobert’s first season 42-40. In 2022-23, Gobert averaged 13.4 points per game, 11.6 rebounds, and 1.2 assists, his worst statistics since 2016-17. After the trade deadline deal to acquire Conley, the team slowly learned to play better with Gobert. However, after five games against the Denver Nuggets, their season ended in a first-round exit.
Minnesota started to unlock Gobert in the playoffs. He averaged 15.0 points per game, 12.2 rebounds, and 2.0 assists. His 12.2 rebounds would rank third in rebounds per game only behind Nikola Jokić and Anthony Davis.
The Wolves brought back nearly all their rotation players, with only Taurean Prince, Austin Rivers, and Jaylen Nowell departing. They returned all five starters and three key bench players from the playoff run: Kyle Anderson, Naz Reid, and Alexander-Walker.
Because of the continuity, Gobert and the Wolves went 56-26 last year and made it to the Western Conference Finals. Gobert won his fourth Defensive Player of the Year award. He significantly improved compared to 2022-23. His offensive rating improved by 3.8 points, and his defensive rating improved by 3.7. As a result, his total net rating improved from 0.4 in 2022-23 to 8.0 last year.
However, the Wolves traded Karl-Anthony Towns after the season, and Kyle Anderson left in free agency, resulting in a significant lineup change. Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo joined the top 8 players in the rotation.
The changes seemingly returned the Wolves to where they were in 2022-23. They started the season 17-17, and Gobert’s stats dropped. In Minnesota’s first 34 games, he averaged only 10.0 points per game, 10.7 rebounds. He had a 108.9 offensive rating, 1.9 points lower than 2022-23, and a 107.1 defensive rating.
That was before a change in rotations brought more familiarity to the team. Gobert has ascended the past three games, resulting in wins and bringing the team to a 20-17 record, and only 1.5 games out of the four seed and a home playoff series.
In the three-game surge since Conley has been on the bench, Gobert’s advanced statistics have surged his offensive rating back to 110.4 and his defensive rating to 102.8. For context, Gobert’s 102.8 defensive rating is 0.7 points better than Oklahoma City’s league-best defensive rating. That resulted in a net rating similar to last year’s (7.5), as opposed to 8.0.
Still, the Wolves haven’t fully unlocked Gobert’s offense. That could be because Conley isn’t starting with him, and the Wolves don’t have a true point guard in the starting five. However, the new starting lineup and returning 2023-24 lineup of Conley, Edwards, McDaniels, and Reid Gobert lineup off the bench has returned Gobert to his sensational level of defensive play.
If the Timberwolves continue to regain an understanding of how to use Gobert and make a run in the playoffs, the trade has a good chance to go down as the trade in history. However, if the Wolves falter in the second half of 2024-25, the trade will likely look like the Jazz fleeced them.
For the Wolves to make the playoffs and win games, they must continue to unlock Gobert defensively and better understand him more offensively. Ultimately, whether they can do that will determine how the Gobert trade will go down in history.