Anthony Edwards has rightfully been receiving a lot of praise and attention for his clutch play at the end of games this season.
Edwards did it again in the Minnesota Timberwolves’ 104-103 victory over the San Antonio Spurs on Sunday. He got the ball in Minnesota’s final possession, saw Victor Wembanyama across from him, patiently waited for a screen, and hit a game-winner from the midrange.
Edwards’ numbers speak for themselves. His true shooting percentage in the clutch before the Spurs game was a ludicrously high 82.4%. That’s a full 9.0% better than Nikola Jokic, who is in second place. However, as a team, the Wolves are the league’s best fourth-quarter team by net rating (+10.7).
The Timberwolves have also played well outside of the fourth quarter this season. They boast the league’s fifth-best record and are just 1.5 games behind the Spurs for the 2-seed in the West. The Wolves also rank third in points per game (119.9) and seventh in plus-minus (+5.1). They have the sixth-best offensive rating (117.2) and rank seventh in defensive rating (112.6), resulting in the seventh-best net rating (4.7).
Minnesota also ranks in the top half of the league in every other key statistic. Their assist-to-turnover ratio is 11th (1.89), they rank 12th in rebound percentage (50.3%), ninth in turnover volume (13.9%), sixth in true shooting (59.6%), and 13th in pace (101.33).
The Wolves are statistically a strong team. They have a top-10 offense and top-10 defense that take care of the ball well, rebound at a good level, and shoot at a solid clip.
Still, it’s odd how much the Timberwolves transform in the fourth quarter. Their offense remains solid, ranking seventh in the NBA in the final frame. Still, their defense skyrockets to an elite level, ranking second in defensive rating at 107.0, which is just 1.6 points behind the Oklahoma City Thunder’s top-ranked regular-season defense and 5.6 points better than Minnesota’s season average. That allows them to post that top-ranked net rating.
But why and how do the Wolves do this? Jaden McDaniels tried to explain their ability to turn their defense “on” earlier in the year.
“The fourth quarter is probably where you see it the most,” he said. “I feel like if we could do that for a whole game, we could probably hold teams to less than 100 points. … I don’t know what game it was, but Nate (Bubes) was just yelling, ‘They’ve only scored four points this quarter’ … but I know it was probably the fourth quarter or something.”
Turning the defense “on” is probably the right expression. It’s still a mystery why it takes until the fourth quarter for the Wolves to do that, but the improvements are undeniable.
McDaniels is at the head of the improvement. His 111.6 defensive rating improves to 106.4. Naz Reid also seemingly locks in the fourth, going from a 112.3 defensive rating to a stellar 102.9. Finally, Mike Conley posted a team-best defensive rating of 100.4 among rotation players in 5.8 minutes of play in the fourth, much improved from his season average of 112.7.
The improvements from that trio of players are the most notable on defense and are likely the reason the rating improves so much in the fourth.
On the other side of the ball, the offensive rating dips to 107.7, but their true shooting becomes the league’s best in the fourth at 61.4%. The Wolves start to play at a faster pace, ranking second in the NBA at 101.50 in the fourth. The combination of elite shooting and fast play typically works against a defense because the increased pace can prevent the defense from getting set on its return. However, the Wolves seem to counter this by stealing the ball, ranking fourth with 2.5 steals per game.
Whatever the internal psychological reason for Minnesota’s fourth-quarter defensive improvements is, there’s no doubt that the team can play it at an elite level when it matters most. Paired with Edwards’ league-leading clutch-time offensive stats, the Wolves are a truly dangerous team.
However, if they could turn the defense “on” sooner, as McDaniels said, they could probably hold teams to under 100 points. For now, though, it’s encouraging knowing that when the playoffs come, and every minute matters, the Wolves can be an elite defense.