Three Players Not Named Anthony Edwards That Will Make or Break The Wolves’ Series

Anthony Edwards will be in the driver’s seat, but he’ll need a couple of important people in the car with him. If he doesn’t, the Wolves will find themselves back in Minneapolis early.

Have you heard that Anthony Edwards is going to have a lot on his shoulders in the Minnesota Timberwolves’ first-round series against the Los Angeles Lakers?

It’s the word that’s making its way around town at a pretty rapid rate. As one of the most blitzed players in the NBA this season, Edwards gets two thrown at him on the ball for good reason; it works more than it doesn’t.

But Edwards’ unlocking of superhuman stature in the postseason can only happen if he gets a little bit of help on said blitzes that LA will be sure to throw at him. Not only will he need to make the right play, but the ensuing seconds after the ball leaves his hands, both on the offensive end and defensive end, will define the series.

Who will be instrumental in determining it? I’ll take a shot.

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Rudy Gobert

It’s not an exaggeration to say that this is a career-defining playoff series for Rudy Gobert.

After a start to the season that was shaping up to be the statistical worst of his career, Gobert rounded back into form and dominated hampered, small, and inferior frontcourts to what the Wolves had on the floor after his return from back spasms in March.

Since his March 9 reacclimation against the San Antonio Spurs, Gobert is averaging 15.4 points on 70 percent shooting, 12.5 rebounds, and looks much closer to the dominant defensive state he had on display last season en route to his fourth Defensive Player of the Year award.

The assignment is clear – Rudy Gobert cannot get played off the floor in a series in which the opponent will almost certainly go small, or partially match him up with a journeyman center in Jaxson Hayes. Hayes, being a stopgap and last line of defense for an LA team with zero playable centers below him, it’s a natural advantage to be carried in.

Height is not just a Laker weakness; it’s THE weakness. It must be exploited. Whether it be gathering offensive rebounds and winning the second chance points battle, negating small matchups by guarding in space, finishing strong when he’s left open on Ant blitzes, or guarding the rim at a high level against three star players that enjoy getting to the heart of the defense, this is a series that Gobert has to win in.

The Wolves win if: Rudy Gobert averages a double-double with 11+ rebounds in the series and plays well enough to earn Chris Finch’s trust to close multiple games. The Timberwolves are 26-11 this season when Gobert grabs 11 or more rebounds.

The Wolves lose if: Gobert is proven ineffective on the offensive end being guarded by a tweener wing like Dorian Finney-Smith, and limits his own minutes due to his offensive ineffectiveness not being worth his defensive gains late in games.

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Julius Randle

Rolling down the list of players who will not only define the series for the Wolves, but have their careers defined by this series, we land on the offensive Swiss Army knife, most crucial to taking ball pressure off of Anthony Edwards. For Randle, it will have to pair with a redemption tour.

Randle carries the label of a playoff choker into the series. Just the third playoffs he’ll experience in his 11-year career, Randle carries a less-than-stellar line of 17 points on 34 percent shooting in the postseason in his career. Granted a primary offensive option with the New York Knicks and less relied upon as a distributor, it will be imperative for Randle to showcase his tweak in role on the biggest stage in the first round.

“I’m excited,” Randle opined to reporters this week ahead of the trip out to LA. “This is one of the few times in my career I feel like I have the chance to really play for something.”

Randle would go on to chat about his comfort level as the season went on. That’s important.

Randle has inarguably been one of the most important players in the Wolves’ lineup this season. They’re 44-25 with him on the season when he plays, and 22-4 with him in the lineup in the last 26 games he’s played.

The passing ability from Randle is something that will be especially necessary in trying to pick apart what the Lakers throw at them.

Let’s run through the thought exercise that LeBron James is the primary matchup for Randle, which would make a lot of sense from the LA side. Being one of the best help defenders in the league and a logical choice to be the blitzer on Ant, the Wolves could use that to their advantage.

Randle comes up to set a slip screen, forces the help on Edwards, gets the ball, and catches a defender between himself and Rudy Gobert, having the optionality to score, throw the lob, or perhaps even kick it to an open shooter in the corner if low man help comes.

At the crux of it is number 30.

The Wolves win if: Randle keeps his turnovers in check and makes the right play more often than not. The Wolves are 12-12 this season when he turns the ball over four or more times. It feels like that’s a magic number he needs to try and stay under. The Wolves are also 20-11 this season when he records five or more assists.

The Wolves lose if: The ISO ball trap happens and Randle slips into his turnover-happy ways. I actually think the Lakers are pretty well equipped the defend him in isolation; the ball has to keep moving.

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Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Contrary to the other two, Nickeil Alexander-Walker’s career will not be defined by this series. However, his roster spot on the team next year could be.

While Alexander-Walker tends to have elongated stretches of up and down play, he always seems to show up and be one of the more clutch players on the Wolves’ bench. In 26 clutch-time games, NAW posted the second-best field goal percentage on the team (47.4 percent) and developed a tendency to put pressure on the rim as the season went on. Based on the running theme of taking pressure off of Edwards, NAW’s ability not only to shoot the ball, but drive off of hard closeouts could prove to be incredibly useful when sharing the floor with number 5.

All of that said, a lot of the above can also ring true for his wing/big counterpart in Naz Reid, someone who may end up getting the money that doesn’t allow the Wolves to offer Alexander-Walker what he will command on the open market. Reid has struggled over the last month and has become visibly frustrated in his play. If it continues to carry into the playoffs, individuality aside, it’s a sub-storyline to watch between him, Alexander-Walker, and Julius Randle, also likely to look for a long-term deal this offseason. Not only in performance, but the ability to let previous possessions go and affect future ones.

All to say that this is the clutch performance off the bench that will be needed. Especially in the context of hitting shots off of blitzes, NAW’s ability to work out of the corner and put pressure on the basket will help steer the Wolves’ depth advantage, and if the Wolves end up matching the Lakers and going small, closing games.

The Wolves win if: Alexander-Walker stays efficient and assertive on offense. The Wolves are 8-4 this season when NAW scores 15 or more points, and 22-14 when he scores 10 or more. Confidence is key for a player like Alexander-Walker.

The Wolves Lose if: NAW sees foul trouble early getting physical. He will be imperative in guarding Austin Reaves off the bench as one of the best perimeter defenders on the team, and will likely see some time on Luka to spell Anthony Edwards and McDaniels.

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I think this series is going six games. Far beyond any specific player, the determinant of it going in the favor of Minnesota will be the ability for the Wolves to buck overall trends of playing in the clutch and playing well at home. Ultimately, I think this series heads into game four with a 2-1 Laker advantage.

The performances of these three will collectively determine what happens from there.