There’s an old basketball adage, “a series doesn’t start until the home team loses a game.” Minnesota Timberwolves fans can take some solace in the idea that this Western Conference Finals has yet to deviate from expectation. All the Thunder have done so far is take care of home court. But the fact is, those two games were so lopsided (both won by double digits) that it seems almost impossible for the Wolves to take four of the next five games. The odds get even worse if Minnesota loses Game 3.
Going down 3-0 is a death sentence in the NBA. If they are going to mount a comeback, it must start with their first home game of the series. The Target Center crowd will be raucous, and newly-minted MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will hear “free throw merchant” chants all night. Maybe the other basketball saying, “role players play better at home,” could even come true. Minnesota’s bench has been practically nonexistent. But will it be enough to inspire the Wolves to victory?
Timberwolves Finals Hopes Hang on Game 3 Adjustments
Play the Thunder Way
What sets this Oklahoma City team apart from the rest of the league is its ability to force turnovers and finish in transition. Minnesota prefers to play at a slower pace, more deliberate and less rapid. But against the Thunder, this play style has been easy pickings for the opportunistic OKC defense. Guards like Lu Dort, Jalen Williams, and Alex Caruso salivate when they see Julius Randle posting up. Unbeknownst to the big man, there’s usually a second Thunder defender waiting to sneak up and steal the rock.
When Donte DiVincenzo comes off a screen from Rudy Gobert, instead of finding him for a flush (as so often happened during the regular season), any pocket pass is picked off and pushed ahead the other way. For the Wolves to win, they need to make faster decisions. Throughout the regular season, the Wolves ranked last in the NBA in frequency of shots taken with the shot clock between 22 and 18 seconds. If Minnesota can prioritize scoring against scrambling defense, its efficiency and output should spike.
Throw Everything at Shai
Obviously, these early clock shots are most often going to come in transition. It’s hard to run when you’re taking the ball out under the basket, so for Minnesota to get out in transition, they will need to get the ball out of Gilgeous-Alexander’s hands. In a February game, in which the Wolves trailed by as much as 25 in the second half, their comeback was sparked by an unconventional 2-3 zone. The two defenders up top would swarm SGA, forcing him to give it up or make a difficult dash to the rim.
The Thunder’s role players missed shots, Minnesota got some turnovers, and won in overtime. At the end of Game 2, with the home team leading by nearly 20 points, Wolves head coach Chris Finch deployed the same tactic. It inspired a brief rally, the Wolves cutting the deficit to ten points before Oklahoma City slammed the door shut. But Minnesota might’ve found something in this defensive scheme that throws off the rhythm of the Thunder. Look out for any double teams near half court in Game 3 that indicate a shift in defensive identity. For the Timberwolves to win this Western Conference Finals, a drastic shift is going to be necessary.
A Class Above the Rest
In the end, this series might simply come down to the fact that Oklahoma City is the better team. All season, they were the best team in the league, and through two games, there’s little evidence to prove otherwise. And although they have reached a second straight Conference Finals, this Wolves squad is a sixth seed that often struggled with an awkward fit on the floor. This is clearest in Minnesota’s frontcourt.
Both Randle and Gobert have struggled to hold onto the ball amidst swarming Thunder hands. Bench big Naz Reid has yet to hit a three-pointer in the series. Gobert, recently named to the All-Defensive Second Team, held opponents to just 53% shooting in the paint during the regular season. Over two games in the Conference Finals, that number is a staggering 66%. Edwards, who led the NBA in pull-up three pointers made and attempted, is just 3/15 on such shots. The Thunder are taking Minnesota’s strengths and turning them into weaknesses. It’s going to be a quick series if that trend continues as the teams head to Minnesota.
Featured image: © Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images
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