The Minnesota Timberwolves and the Oklahoma City Thunder will play in the Western Conference Finals. Both teams have a young star on their roster. The Timberwolves have never been to the NBA Finals, while the Thunder played in the 2012 Finals with Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant. Speaking of the Timberwolves vs. Thunder series preview, here are three stats that might determine the outcome.
Timberwolves vs. Thunder Series Preview: Top 3 Underrated Stats
The Timberwolves and Thunder have split the season series for the last two seasons. This season, the Thunder were the best team in the league, but they had difficulty against Minnesota. Will that trend continue in the Western Conference Finals? Let’s look at some stats.
Thunder’s Three-Point Efficiency Drops vs. Minnesota
For the season, the Oklahoma City Thunder were the sixth-best team in three-point efficiency. They averaged 38.8 attempts and converted 37.4% of those shots. Yet, in the four matchups this season against the Timberwolves, their shooting dropped to 35.6%. That percentage would be in the bottom 10 of the league.
Out of the four games, the Thunder shot well from three only once, when they went 19-35 (54.2%). In the other three, they shot 33.3%, 24.1%, and 30.6% from deep, respectively.
During the regular season, the Timberwolves were the fourth-best team in shooting threes. Still, both teams have been awful in the playoffs from deep. Will that change in the WCF? We’ll see!
When Ant Passes, the Timberwolves Usually Win
This season, the Timberwolves lost the two games against OKC when Anthony Edwards was their leading scorer. When another player led Minnesota in scoring, they won. In the four games, Ant had eight, seven, seven, and two assists. The Thunder will surely focus their defensive effort on Edwards. And with players like Jalen Williams, Lu Dort, Cason Wallace, and Alex Caruso, they can throw different defenders at him. For the Timberwolves to have a chance, they will need Naz Reid, Julius Randle, and Jaden McDaniels to be more involved offensively. They cannot let Ant force shots over good defenders. That is not a recipe for success.
Taking Care of the Ball
The Timberwolves have been careless with the ball in these playoffs, averaging 14.8 turnovers per game. Only the Denver Nuggets, Miami Heat, Detroit Pistons, and the Memphis Grizzlies averaged more. Except for the Nuggets, all other teams were out in the first round.
The Thunder are one of the best teams in the league at getting extra possessions. Between Caruso, Wallace, Williams, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the Thunder have players who get steals leading to easy baskets and transition points. They led the league in playoff steals per game as a team. Minnesota is fourth, however, so the Wolves’ carelessness with the ball can hurt them.
The Timberwolves can win if they control the possession battle. There are paths for Minnesota to win this matchup and make it to the NBA Finals. They have a good rim protector that helps them prevent drive-and-kick open shots and high-percentage threes. But, they have to lower their turnovers to prevent the Thunder from going on runs.
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