Was Anthony Edwards An All-Star Snub?

First and foremost, Anthony Edwards will be an All-Star this season.

Years from now, when people are debating over his legacy, they will go to whatever version of basketball-reference our robot overlords will permit, and we’ll see several All-Star appearances under Edwards’ name. It won’t say All-Star starter selection, nor should it, because the fans have a disproportionate amount of say in the starter selection process.

The All-Star process has yielded memorable All-Star starters such as:

• Allen Iverson in 2009, when he was averaging 13.8 points per game with the Detroit Pistons.
• Kobe Bryant in 2013, a season in which he played only six games.
• Andrew Wiggins in 2022, who was voted in as a starter.

These come to mind because the All-Star starting spot can sometimes be a nod to a great player at the end of their career, or a social media-driven movement that thrusts someone unexpected into the conversation. Zaza Pachulia almost made it in 2016-17, for goodness’ sake.

All that is to say, the starter status isn’t nearly as important as the media can make it seem. Still, it feels like the voters snubbed Anthony Edwards as an All-Star starter, but it does still beg the question: Did Edwards get snubbed out of the starting lineup?

Nikola Jokic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luka Doncic, Stephen Curry, and Victor Wembanyama are the All-Star starters in the West. According to the NBA communications post, Anthony Edwards was the sixth man on the list and the odd man out of the starting five.

Nikola Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are in a league of their own

Jokic and Gilgeous-Alexander are clear-cut All-Star starters. The reigning MVP is putting together a sensational season, leading the Oklahoma City Thunder to the top seed in the West at the break. His 31.8 points per game is second in the NBA, and his NBA efficiency rating is also third in the league at 32.5.

Meanwhile, Jokic was having a historic season until he suffered a left knee injury on Dec. 29. He’s still sixth in points per game at 29.6. He leads the league in assists at 11.0 per game. Jokic’s 12.2 rebounds per game also sit atop the NBA, all while shooting 60.5% from the field, 43.5% from three, and 85.3% from the free-throw line. His efficiency score is also 9.7 points higher than Doncic, who came in second place, and the Denver Nuggets are the 3-seed in the West.

Luka Doncic is on a scoring tear

It’s also fair to argue that Luka Doncic is deserving of an All-Star starter spot. He leads the league in scoring, averaging 33.8 points per game. His 8.6 assists rank fourth in the NBA, and his 7.5 rebounds rank 30th. As mentioned above, Doncic’s efficiency ranks second in the league. However, his advanced statistics poke holes in his resume that Jokic and Gilgeous-Alexander don’t have.

Still, Doncic’s net rating is only +1.2, the second lowest of his career. His rebound percentage is the lowest of his career, and his assist-to-turnover ratio also is the second lowest of his career at just 1.94. Doncic is posting the worst defense rating of his career at 118.1.

However, his offensive rating is third-best at 119.3, despite his increase in turnovers. Neither rating ranks among the top 100 players overall, though. However, Doncic’s offensive rating is propped up by an incredible shooting season. His true shooting percentage, a metric that appropriately values free throws and three-pointers, was 60.5%(league average bounces between 56%-58%)

While Doncic is on a Los Angeles Lakers team with less talent than other West contenders, he still plays with LeBron James, Austin Reaves, and a litany of solid role players. The Lakers are the fifth seed in the West, and he has still had a down season by his standards, while leading the league in scoring. It’s fairly easy to see why Doncic got the nod over Anthony Edwards.

Steph Curry looks like a legacy pick

Curry’s case is a little more suspicious. He ranks 12th in scoring, shooting 47.0% from the floor, 38.6% from three, and 93.1% on free throws. His 3.8 rebounds and 4.9 assists rank outside the top 50 in the NBA.

From an advanced statistical standpoint, Curry’s case doesn’t get a lot better. His 3.6 net rating is the sixth-lowest of his 16-year career. His 115.5 defensive rating is the second-worst of his career, while his offensive rating is the fourth-best at 119.1.

Curry’s offensive rating ranks 55th in the NBA, and his defensive rating is 359th. Curry’s true shooting percentage is still an elite 63.7%, but the Golden State Warriors are the eighth seed in the West. Although Curry certainly is still deserving of an All-Star spot, it’s hard to see him as a top-five player in the West.

Victor Wembanyama’s case is also a bit flimsy

Wembanyama is in a similar situation to Curry. He’s averaging 24.8 points per game, good for 21st in the NBA. He’s shooting an impressive 51.8% from the floor, 40% from three, and 84% from the free-throw line. Wembanyama’s 10.8 rebounds rank 9th in the NBA, and his 2.9 assists are fairly average for a center.

However, Wembanyama’s advanced stats shine. His 13.6 net rating ranks 36th among all NBA players. When filtered to account for only players who play 15+ minutes per game, he’s 11th in defensive rating. His offensive rating is where he falls lower, though, ranking 81st overall.

The bigger argument against Wembanyama’s starting status is that he has missed 14 games this season. Wembanyama has put up All-Star-level statistics, but not quite to Jokic’s historic levels. The Spurs are the two-seed in the West, but they are 20-9 in the 29 games Wembanyama has played, and an equally impressive 10-4 without him.

Anthony Edwards’ case

From a traditional stats perspective, Edwards is fifth in scoring, ahead of Curry and Wembanyama. However, his 63.1% true shooting percentage is lower than both of them. His 4.9 rebounds are better than Curry’s, but significantly lower than Wembanyama’s, just as Edwards’ 3.7 assists are higher than Wembanyama’s but lower than Curry’s.

Edwards’ traditional stats put him in the conversation. Unfortunately, his advanced statistics don’t do Edwards many favors. His 3.5 net rating is lower than Curry’s and less than half of Wembanyama’s. His offensive rating is 0.1 lower than Curry’s, and Edwards’ defensive rating is the worst of his six-year career. It’s considerably lower than Wembanyama, while mirroring Curry’s 115.6. Edwards’ 1.38 assist-to-turnover ratio also leaves a lot to be desired, especially with his lack of assists.

Did voters get the starting five right?

While everyone will have a different opinion on the All-Star starting lineup, the starting five seems right.

Wembanyama made it because of his superb defense, incredible net rating, and overall well-rounded play. Curry made it partially due to legacy. Still, he’s having a better shooting and analytical season on offense than Edwards, while putting up similar defensive statistics.

Doncic’s offensive prowess is nearly unmatched. He leads the league in scoring and ranks high in assists and rebounds. From an advanced statistical perspective, there is an argument for Edwards to get the nod. Ultimately, there may be some Lakers advantage to the voting.

The other two starters, Jokic and Gilgeous-Alexander, seem to be playing at a different level. They’re putting together all-time seasons.

Edwards will be an All-Star, and likely no one will remember years from now that he didn’t start. The Wolves had a slow start to the season, their defense wavered at times, and they still occasionally struggle on offense.

All of these problems affect Edwards’ chances of being a starter and drag down key statistics that determine who starts. Hopefully, this will add fuel to Edwards’ fire and continue the team’s surge toward a top-4 playoff seed.