The Minnesota Timberwolves earned a resounding 25-point victory over the Phoenix Suns in Game 1 of their Western Conference Quarterfinals matchup. How did the Wolves turn it around after being swept in the regular season?
For just the third time in franchise history, the Minnesota Timberwolves find themselves up 1-0 in a playoff series after trouncing the Phoenix Suns 120-95 in Game 1 on Saturday. The blowout victory was a welcomed sight after the Suns dominated the Wolves in all three of their matchups, winning by an average of nearly 16 points.
The Wolves flexed their top-ranked defense, led by relentless wing players that bothered offensive flows and schemes with tons of physicality that all funnels into soon-to-be four-time Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert as their anchor.
This calling card led the Wolves to a 56-26 regular season record, the second-best mark in franchise history, and a top-three seed for just the third time in their 35-year history. What did the Wolves do on the defensive end to hold the Suns to just 95 points, their second lowest scoring performance this season, and come away with a resounding 25-point victory?
Limiting the Long Ball
Over the course of the regular season, the Suns averaged a total of 32.6 3-point attempts per game and connected on 12.4 of them to shoot 38.2% as a team, which was the fifth-best 3-point percentage in the league. In the three regular season matchups between these two teams, the Suns averaged a total of 28.6 attempts from long distance, but averaged 14 makes per game to shoot a blistering 49% from downtown. Anytime a team makes 50% of their shots from range, they are insanely tough to beat, and it’s why the Wolves struggled so much against this team in the regular season. In Game 1, the Suns put up 28 long distance attempts, essentially five less than the regular season, and only made nine of them, which is roughly three-and-a-half less makes their regular season average. Phoenix shot 32.1% overall from downtown, which is 16.9% less than what they shot against the Timberwolves throughout the regular season. How were the Timberwolves able to limit both 3-point takes and makes?
A lot of it had to do with the defensive scheme. The Wolves were playing the Suns high and out on the perimeter, above the 3 point line. They also played a lot of isolation defense, meaning they did not rotate much on drives to limit kick out opportunities that usually lead to open 3s in this league.
(Editor’s Note: If you are reading this on Apple News, please click here so you can view embedded videos important to the analysis, and enjoy the best overall reading experience.)
This drive attempt from Devin Booker in the first quarter against Jaden McDaniels is a prime example of that defensive scheme at work. McDaniels does an excellent job of defending Booker in space on the perimeter without fouling, and even though he does get beat, he’s still in the general area to not allow an easy shot attempt.
The other important aspect of this possession is the other three Wolves players on the perimeter in Karl-Anthony Towns, Mike Conley, and Anthony Edwards. Even though Booker gets the advantage on McDaniels, the aforementioned players do not rotate off their matchups. It’s how well they can stick to these matchups while Phoenix is going through their offensive flow.
Making Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal, and Booker have to work to get the ball, and then making sure if they do get it, they don’t have space to pull the trigger off catch and shoot opportunities or have an open lane or open space to attack and penetrate off the dribble is vital. If they are not able to attack in space, it limits the scramble defense when rotations are slow and late, and will limit the amount of mismatches the Wolves find themselves in on the defensive end.
First thing I’m looking for in the game is how attached to their man the Wolves play defensively — particularly Ant and KAT. Thats gonna tip the hand of how this game goes, I think.
It’s not just pindowns, ball screens, it’s the drag actions, dual screens, Spain — any time those…
— Dane Moore (@DaneMooreNBA) April 20, 2024
Here is another example. Durant is driving on McDaniels from the right wing. Edwards is in the right corner attached to Booker and Towns is attached to Grayson Allen in the left corner. On the drive attempt, Edwards shows and flashes a little bit but doesn’t overhelp off Booker for Durant to find him for a wide open long distance attempt, or for himself to be caught in bad defensive positioning and Booker being able to attack in space and set up opportunities for his teammates and cause a defensive breakdown.
On this possession, the Suns elect to run a pick-and-roll set with Booker and Drew Eubanks. Naz Reid is chasing Booker with Gobert playing in drop coverage. Reid is initially beat off the bounce but does a phenomenal job of getting back into a position to keep the ball in front. Again, the Wolves do not help. McDaniels stays glued to Durant on the left wing, Nickeil Alexander-Walker stays glued to Eric Gordon in the left corner, and Edwards stays on Royce O’Neale on the right side of the floor. If they were to help and dig on these drives, it can lead to open shots from one pass away or cross-court passes that lead to those scrambles and broken rotations.
The Wolves are content with giving up contested mid-range shots, even though the Suns are the second-best mid-range shooting team in the league, making 47.4% of their attempts. On plays like this, you tip your cap to Booker and recognize he made a tough shot. He had to work extremely hard to get it, and that will wear a team down over a series. Not giving up open 3-pointers within the Suns’ offensive structure is critical, and I expect the Wolves to follow a similar plan in Game 2.
Here are other examples that just drive the point home: Do not overhelp and allow open shots from range on catch and shoot opportunities, or allow players to attack in space, Make Phoenix settle for tough mid-range jumpers and let Gobert do what he does better than anyone else in the world.
Playing Big, Creating Second Chances, and Cleaning the Glass
The Timberwolves are going to need to lean into their big identity even more now than they have all year if they expect to advance to the second round. For this identity to reach its fullest potential, on top of the defensive scheme of forcing the Suns into mid-range jumpers, Minnesota needs to use their size to their advantage.
Going back and looking at the data over the three regular season matchups, the Suns averaged a total of 37.6 total rebounds per game and 8.3 offensive rebounds per game. The Wolves were averaging a total of 40 rebounds per game, and 12 on the offensive end. Looking at those as purely averages, it would signal the Wolves won the rebounding battle more often than not, which is technically true, but a deeper dive into each individual game spells a much different story that gives a better picture into how this series can play out.
In the April 5 matchup, the Suns grabbed 49 total rebounds and seven of those were offensive, while the Timberwolves only pulled down 44 in total and eight of them were on the offensive glass. In the season finale on April 14, the Suns pulled down 32 total boards and 13 were offensive, while the Wolves grabbed 36 in total and 12 of them were offensive. Given Phoenix’s lack of size, Minnesota can not afford to lose the rebounding battle — especially on the offensive end.
The Wolves made winning that battle a priority and it netted a massive return on investment. Forcing the Suns into mid-range shots eliminated a ton of long bounces off the rim that lead to long offensive rebounds.
Phoenix pulled down a measly 28 total rebounds in Game 1, which is significantly less than the 44.1 they averaged in the regular season, and nine less than average from their regular season matchup with the Wolves. They also garnered only three offensive rebounds, down quite a bit from the 10.1 they pulled down in the regular season, which lead to only a total of six second chance points, per NBA.com. Minnesota flexed their size and grabbed 52 total rebounds, which was up from the 43.2 they averaged in the regular season, and came down with 13 of them on the offensive end, which is also up from their season-long mark of 9.4.
This is the one area of the matchup that the Wolves will absolutely need to win in every game, because they have the size and the defensive scheme to do so. If the Timberwolves were to lose on the boards, it could mean Phoenix had another abnormally good shooting night and there were no defensive rebounds to grab, or Minnesota got beat on the offensive glass. Each of those outcomes would be symptoms of a back-breaking problem — Minnesota not leaning into their size advantage well enough.
Minnesota in Game 1 created a +14 advantage in second chance points and out-rebounded Phoenix 52-28. This type of disparity tells us two things: The Wolves defense will be very tough to beat when they can limit opposing offenses to one-and-done trips down the floor, and they can generate a ton of good looks off these second chances. The only real threats the Suns possess in this facet of the game are Jusuf Nurkić and Eubanks. If those two beat the Timberwolves as a collective unit in this area of the game, it’s going to spell problems.
Anthony Edwards Against the Shell Defense
As the best offensive player on the roster, Edwards and his offensive ability are going to draw a loaded defense that is designed to stop him specifically. Edwards has made strides this year as a playmaker, but if Minnesota is looking to bring a parade to First Avenue, he needs to make another huge leap. Phoenix does not have a single player that can check Ant by himself. He is going to beat the initial point of attack defender and be able to get downhill single coverage. How he navigates with the ball in traffic is going to be the make or break factor for this series. He recorded six assists in Game 1, and five of them came in very similar situations.
In all of these plays, Edwards is the primary ball- handler and is beginning to initiate offense through isolation. A direct result of his gravity on this end of the floor is that he is going to draw double and triple teams and will be forced to give the ball up. The extra defenders are going to come from one pass away, and he needs to make these reads to give this Timberwolves team the best chances at success. If he forces himself into this loaded defense it’s going to lead to turnovers and a poor shot diet that will fuel the Suns.
The Counter Punch for Phoenix
Isolation basketball and the two-man pick-and-roll game held the largest share of the Suns’ Game 1 offense. This is something that can work for a team like Phoenix, they have a true three-headed dragon in Durant, Booker, and Beal. However, the Timberwolves have plus defenders nearly everywhere in the lineup. McDaniels and NAW are elite isolation defenders and screen navigators; Edwards is great in isolation; Mike Conley is more than capable of defending in space given the matchup; KAT is having the best season of his career on the defensive end, and Gobert is back to his prime self. That is just the starting five.
And that’s before mentioning Reid and Kyle Anderson off the bench, a pair of long, rangy defensive playmakers in the frontcourt. There is not a moment that there will not be a lineup without a more than capable defender on the floor. To help counteract this, the Suns will need to run a more structured offense that will involve a lot more offball and back door screening as opposed to it being on the ball. The likely actions from Phoenix will include a lot more flare screens and Spain pick-and-roll.
Flare screens are an action where an offensive player cuts and/or drifts away from the ball handler and is going to use a screen that is being set by someone else on the floor. This leads to passes over the top of the primary defender who is guarding the man cutting away since he is likely to be caught on the flare screen. Phoenix can run a lot of variations of this with Booker, Beal, and Durant. This type of offensive set will create space to operate. The key for the Wolves to defend this is going to be communication and engagement levels. The Suns are going to put McDaniels and Edwards in these actions to see if they can catch them sleeping on the defensive end. With how lethal all three of those guys for Phoenix can be, some space is too much for how efficient shooters they are. It goes back to how well the individual defenders on this Timberwolves defense stick to their matchup. It will also wear guys like Ant and McDaniels down, having to constantly fight over screens and chase down members of the opposing team.
The Timberwolves are in a prime position to move onto the second round for the first time since the 2003-04 season, as they lead the series 1-0 with another game at home on Tuesday, a must-win if Minnesota wants to maintain home-court advantage. The Suns aren’t going easy, though. They are led by a highly experienced, championship winning coach in Frank Vogel, a two-time finals MVP in Durant, and a great supporting cast in Booker and Beal. The Wolves came out swinging in Game 1, but Game 2 will give an even better idea of what’s to come in this highly entertaining matchup.