5 Numbers That Explain the Packers’ Loss To Denver

The Green Bay Packers lost four key players and an opportunity to overtake the NFC North in their 34-26 loss to the Denver Broncos.

Tensions were high in this game. A fight between the teams before kickoff highlighted how important it was for both teams.

It was much of what you would expect from one of the best offenses versus one of the best defenses in the NFL. Both units would have their wins in individual moments, from Josh Jacobs‘ improbable grab over Dre Greenlaw to the Broncos defense holding the Packers offense to three in the red zone.

It was an extremely back-and-forth affair with four lead changes in the second quarter alone. The Broncos would reclaim the lead on the last play of the third quarter, taking a four-point lead to start the fourth.

They would never relinquish the lead after that, winning 34-26.

Here are five numbers to break down Green Bay’s loss.

2

Josh Jacobs caught just the second receiving touchdown of his career this week on an incredible grab over Dre Greenlaw for his 13th touchdown on the season. The Packers’ offense looked like they would have to settle for another field goal attempt in the red zone, facing third-and-goal from the 15-yard line.

Instead, the Packers and Jordan Love would look to one of the most unlikely sources in Jacobs, who was already dealing with a dinged-up knee. Most expected Jacobs, who motioned out wide, to be used as a decoy or just to clear space for an underneath concept.

Instead, Love floated a ball right to Jacobs, who was able to go up with strong hands and Moss Greenlaw. In a game where it looked like every touchdown would be important, Jacobs helped the Packers get one in an improbable situation, catching a pass that Next Gen Stats said had just a 25.3% completion probability.

Jacobs would find paydirt yet again with a 40-yard touchdown run, his first rushing touchdown that wasn’t in the red zone this season.

12

The officials finally called a team for holding Micah Parsons, the first time this has happened in 12 weeks.

Before this week, one of the biggest talking points surrounding officiating was how poorly they had been officiating against opposing linemen who were holding Parsons.

In a league where superstars typically benefit from favorable calls, Parsons had been getting the opposite. It feels like offensive linemen can get away with just about anything against No. 1. Think back to last week when Darnell Wright wrapped his arm around Parsons’ neck on the play right before the two-minute warning to no flag.

While Parsons has been vocal about his aversion to selling calls and his willingness to play through contact, this has been used against him. Well, a team has finally gotten called for a hold, as Garrett Bolles saw a flag to his name as he held Parsons as Bo Nix broke the pocket from the other side.

Despite a hot start to the day, forcing a fumble on the first drive, Parsons’ day would end under awful circumstances with a non-contact knee injury, which could have massive implications for the remainder of the entire NFL season.

215

Jordan Love had a career-high 215 first-half passing yards. Coming into this game, Love had to shoulder a lot of the offensive load with Jacobs on a pitch count while also playing against one of the best defenses in the NFL.

Love looked up to the task in the first half, slicing and dicing an elite Broncos secondary. While the first half’s biggest storyline was Green Bay’s inability to score seven in the red zone, Love was working a clean, efficient game to get them there.

Love’s biggest detractors have said that his production usually comes from subpar defenses. However, he was doing it against one of the best in the NFL this week, hitting his receivers in stride and commanding the offense. He was also able to push the ball vertically against a defense that had been notoriously stingy on plays of more than 20 yards.

However…

286

Love broke his streak of not throwing an interception on the road, throwing his first one in 286 attempts to Pat Surtain.

Part of why the Packers have been so successful on the road has been Love’s maturity this season and taking care of the football. Since the Cleveland Browns game early in the season, Love has been especially careful with the ball.

This week, in the first half, he had been so precise with every throw, not putting the ball in harm’s way. In the third quarter, after scoring on the first drive to go up two possessions and getting the ball back after a quick three-and-out, the Packers offense looked to take another risk and all but end the game.

While they got the look they wanted with Christian Watson in single coverage and with a step on his defender, the defender in question was reigning DPOY Pat Surtain, who undercut the slightly underthrown pass to intercept the ball and give his offense possession again.

The Broncos’ offense capitalized and scored a touchdown to cut Green Bay’s lead to two. Worse yet, the Packers lost Watson to a chest injury.

Love would throw another interception in the fourth quarter with the Packers down eight, with Wicks dropping a ball that fell into Riley Moss’ hands.

4

The injury bug hit the Packers hard, as they lost four key starters this week. Parsons, Watson, Quay Walker, and Zach Tom all left the game with an injury.

Everyone expected this week’s game to be attritional football, but the level of attrition it would reach was something nobody expected.

The Packers started by losing Tom in the first half, an injury that would be noticeable later in the game, as Denver’s pass rush won again and again in the fourth quarter, making it almost impossible for Love to get a play off.

Walker’s loss would be similarly felt, as after he left the game, Denver’s run game with R.J. Harvey really came to life.

The Watson and Parsons injuries were the real death sentences, as in back-to-back drives, Green Bay’s offense lost its most productive weapon in Tucker Kraft’s absence, and possibly the most impactful defender in the NFL.

While the loss hurts Green Bay’s chances this season, losing these four players for extended periods of time is even more difficult to process.