It’s gut-check time with four weeks left in the NFL regular season, and the Green Bay Packers are the No. 2 seed in the NFC. The last four weeks could lead them in a hundred different directions, though.
Let’s take a look at all the current playoff percentages for the Packers using the data from The Athletic, PlayoffStatus, and ESPN.
After ripping off four straight wins and three in a row within the NFC North, all three models have the Packers with a 94% chance or better to reach the postseason. Green Bay’s remaining schedule isn’t easy, with three of four on the road and matchups with the Denver Broncos, Chicago Bears, Baltimore Ravens, and Minnesota Vikings. Still, it would take something catastrophic for the Packers not to punch a ticket to the dance.
The Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks are jockeying for the NFC West and No. 1-overall seed in the conference. Green Bay has a shot at the top seed, but it’s slim. ESPN gives the Packers the highest percentage among the three models to earn the bye, but it still stands at only 14%.
After beating Chicago on Sunday and moving to 4-0 in the division, Green Bay’s odds to claim the NFC North skyrocketed. Still, they are only a half-game up on the Bears with one meeting looming in two weeks. The most likely outcome that all three models see is the Packers winning the division and claiming the No. 2 seed in the NFC.
That, of course, would guarantee the Packers at least two home games if they won the first.
The Philadelphia Eagles’ loss on Monday night to the Los Angeles Chargers bumped up those odds, with the Packers at 39% to get the No. 2 seed, per PlayoffStatus. It’s the most likely outcome, according to their projections, with the No. 7 seed being the second-most likely outcome at 21%. Of course, in this case, it would assume the Bears beat the Packers in two weeks and that Chicago claims the NFC North.
The Athletic calculates that the Packers have a 58% chance of hosting at least one playoff game. If Green Bay beats the Bears in two weeks, without punching in what happens in any of the other three remaining games, that percentage jumps to 75%.
Where things really get interesting is with the likely first-round opponent, according to PlayoffStatus.
PlayoffStatus gives Green Bay just an 8% chance at claiming the lone bye in the NFC. The most likely opponent in Round 1? They say it’s the Bears, with a staggering 30% chance that the Packers and Bears meet in the No. 2 vs. No. 7 matchup right out of the gates in the postseason.
After that, the most likely matchup is the Eagles at 15%. In this scenario, Philadelphia wins the NFC East, and the Packers fall to a Wild Card spot. The Detroit Lions come in next at 11%, meaning PlayoffStatus believes there’s a great chance the Packers not only make the playoffs but also host a division rival on Wild Card Weekend. That’s a 41% chance.
The Athletic is in lock step with this, projecting the Packers to finish 11-5-1, which would mean two more stumbles before the end of the season. However, even with The Athletic projecting Seattle to go 13-4 and San Francisco 12-5, the Packers would get the No. 2 seed, with the Seahawks and 49ers in the same division as the Rams. They see the Bears finishing 11-6, behind the Packers in the NFC North. Meanwhile, they also have the Eagles at 11-6, which lands them the three seed right behind Green Bay.
To put a bow on things, let’s dream big and talk Super Bowl. ESPN believes the Packers have the third-best odds of making it to Santa Clara, at 17%. That trails only the Rams (28%) and the Broncos (22%). PlayoffStatus sees it slightly differently, with the Rams, Broncos, New England Patriots, and Seahawks all ahead of Green Bay in just making the big one. After that, the Packers are tied with — somewhat surprisingly — the Jacksonville Jaguars at 13%.
The Athletic closely aligns with PlayoffStatus. However, they have the Packers at 8% odds to win the Super Bowl. That’s fifth-best, trailing only the Rams, Seahawks, Broncos, and Patriots.
Two things seem apparent at this stage of the season: Barring something truly unfathomable, the Packers will be a playoff team, and there’s a good chance it’s as the No. 2 seed in the NFC. There’s also a strong likelihood that Green Bay could host a rival in Chicago or Detroit to start their postseason journey.
This Sunday will be a massive test in Denver. If Green Bay is up for the challenge and wins, the percentages will only rise across the board.