The Green Bay Packers have just three takeaways through six games this year, tied for 31st in the NFL. One of the main reasons for that — according to the Packers, anyway — is that quarterbacks are not taking many chances downfield against Green Bay, in part because of their stifling pass rush.
This Sunday night, when the highly anticipated matchup against Aaron Rodgers and the Pittsburgh Steelers commences, don’t expect a different script.
Rodgers is one of the best deep-ball throwers the game has ever seen. Packers fans know this better than anyone, recalling the days of Rodgers connecting on long passes with the likes of Jordy Nelson, Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, Davante Adams, James Jones, Randall Cobb. and countless others.
Last Thursday night, Rodgers heaved up a last-second prayer of a Hail Mary in Cincinnati. The pass fell incomplete and Pittsburgh lost, but the ball traveled a whopping 69.8 yards in the air. Per Next Gen Stats, it was the longest recorded pass attempt in the NFL since at least 2017. Rodgers showed that, even at the ripe age of 41, he’s still got it.
However this year in Pittsburgh, dinking-and-dunking has been the recipe for success, for a couple of reasons.
Via Next Gen Stats, among all quarterbacks who have started a game this year, Rodgers has the second-lowest air yards per completion mark at 3.5. It ranks only ahead of Cleveland rookie quarterback Dillon Gabriel, who has a 3.3 average in the same category.
Speed isn’t some pressing issue on the outside for Pittsburgh. The Steelers have D.K. Metcalf, regarded as one of the best vertical threats in the game.
So, why is Rodgers having to live in the short passing game?
Look up front on the offensive line.
Among all quarterbacks who have started a game this year, Rodgers has an average time of 2.63 seconds to let it rip from the pocket. That’s the third-shortest amount of time to throw the ball, an indicator that the offensive line hasn’t done a splendid job of keeping the pocket clean for the veteran.
Rodgers attempted 34 passes against Cincinnati last week. Of those, 21 came within five yards of the line of scrimmage. Interestingly enough, Rodgers had two interceptions in the game, both of which traveled more than 10 yards down the field.
Rodgers has been patient with the process this year and has shown he’s willing to take what the defense gives. Jeff Hafley’s defense will stick to the plan of taking away the big chunk plays and the deep shots, willing to live with a team slicing and dicing in the short-passing game.
It’s nothing different than the Packers have seen all season.
Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith is aware of some of the numbers but stated back in late September that there are many ways to create explosive plays on offense.
There’s a lot of ways to create explosives. A lot of it is, and I think it helps, is when you don’t have to rely on just taking shots down the field. And then you’re seeing it, this is kinda en vogue, lots of teams are playing hybrid shell coverages. So, I mean, if you’re going to put an extra guy deep, there’s usually less guys underneath. If you can go and create space and you have guys that can create explosives that way, that’s great. That leads to not being in the pocket as long.
No player in the league has a higher YAC per reception total than Metcalf at 11.6 yards. The Steelers have wisely realized if they just get the ball to D.K. in any fashion and he can do a lot of damage from there. For what it’s worth, Packers tight end Tucker Kraft ranks second in the league in YAC/reception at 9.3 yards.
Green Bay has had to balance teams not throwing deep on it because of the defensive front with a lack of takeaways because opposing quarterbacks are throwing quick and throwing short.
”I don’t know how much the ball is going up against us right now, it’s not, and that’s a good thing,” he said recently.
Sunday’s game is built up to be appointment television, with Rodgers taking on his former team for the first time ever when Pittsburgh hosts Green Bay. That’s the top storyline, whether you like it or not.
Within the finer details of the game when the Steelers are on offense, expect much of the same of what this Packers’ defense has seen this year. Quick passes to neutralize pressure, with some RPO’s mixed in and the occasional shot downfield to keep the defense honest.
Rodgers can still sling it, but the game plan and the Packers defensive front won’t allow it in the ways you may have expected.