Another week, another stiff test against a top seed on a hot streak for the Green Bay Packers, who will try to win for just the second time ever in Denver against the high-flying Broncos, winners of 10 straight.
Folks in the Mile High City appear to be a bit put out by the fact that their favorite team is a near field goal underdog at home. But in a battle of two top-flight defenses, it appears Vegas is backing the team with the much better quarterback.
Speaking of QBs, the Broncos have padded their 11-2 record by feasting on the dregs of the league, with eight of their wins coming against Cam Ward (in his first start), Jake Browning, Justin Fields, Jaxson Dart (barely), Davis Mills, Marcus Mariota, and Geno Smith twice. I’m taking nothing away from their lights-out defense, but facts are facts.
The defensive numbers are eye-popping: first in sack percentage (a league-leading 55 total), second in explosive pass defense, fourth in scoring defense, fourth in pressure rate, and first in yards per carry against the run. On Sunday, they will face the most explosive offense they’ve seen all season, one that should have most of its pass catchers available, but which may be missing Josh Jacobs.
After missing practice on Wednesday and Thursday, Jacobs returned to the practice field on Friday in a limited capacity, and the team will see how he responds on Saturday before making any firm decisions about his status. One place you can attack Denver’s defense is between the tackles, where they rank just 25th. If Jacobs can’t go, we’ll get the Emanuel Wilson revenge tour. The Broncos cut him two-and-a-half years ago, just three days after he arrived. Shoulder, meet chip.
It will be a supreme test for the revamped offensive line that has fueled the Pack’s rise over the past month. Left tackle Rasheed Walker will need to be at his best against Nik Bonitto, who has as many sacks as Micah Parsons (nowhere near as many pressures, though) and is in the next tier of rushers behind Parsons and Garrett. All four of their D linemen are tough and disruptive, and their linebackers are great in run support, too. If Walker struggles, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Jordan Morgan get some run.
The premier matchup will be the reigning defensive player of the year, Patrick Surtain, against Christian Watson. It will be interesting to see whether Love tests the talented corner or looks elsewhere. Slot corner Ja’Quan McMillian is also playing at a Pro Bowl level, and he’ll likely be assigned to cover Jayden Reed. The weak link is probably linebacker Alex Singleton, so maybe Luke Musgrave or the other tight ends will find themselves targeted more than usual.
Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph, a likely head coach candidate after the season, plays man coverage and likes to blitz more than almost everybody. However, Love has feasted on man coverage and the blitz all season. Will Joseph switch up his tendencies in this matchup?
The Packers are No. 1 in third-down offense, and the Broncos are No. 1 in third-down defense, so the game will likely come down to which team excels on those key downs.
Offensively, the Broncos would love to rely on rookie RB R.J. Harvey and the running game and try to keep Bo Nix out of obvious passing situations. He’s really bad when pressured, completing just 44% of his passes along with five interceptions. Of course, Denver sports the league’s top-rated pass-blocking offensive line, so they do a good job of keeping him clean (just 17 sacks allowed). Look for Jeff Hafley to attack with more blitzes than usual and take his chances with Nix and his middling group of pass catchers.
It should be a beautiful day for football, with temps in the low 60s at kickoff. I look at it this way: Denver’s defense is undoubtedly legit, but the three teams it’s faced with a positive EPA per play (expected points added) — the Indianapolis Colts, Kansas City Chiefs, and Dallas Cowboys — have managed to average 24 points per game against them. I think the Pack can get there, and I’m not sure the Broncos can.
As long as the Packers don’t melt down on special teams, especially against explosive punt returner Marvin Mims, who took one to the house last week, I think they can make a big statement with a massive road win against the AFC’s top seed. Both teams have been at their best in the fourth quarter this season, and that’s when this one will likely be decided. I’m guessing Nix makes one fatal mistake that swings it late.
Maybe it’ll be the guy the Broncos cut a week after letting Wilson out the door, their longtime kicker Brandon McManus, who delivers the dagger.
Packers 24
Broncos 21