Things were supposed to go differently for the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday night. Dressed in all white like Shawn Michaels at WrestleMania 25, Kevin O’Connell was set to debut his latest quarterback project, J.J. McCarthy, to his hometown fanbase. The Vikings even made the bold move of introducing the offense before the game, having McCarthy run onto the field just before Justin Jefferson.
Their game against the Atlanta Falcons was supposed to be a celebration. Instead, the visiting team was celebrating as they left the team.
McCarthy was thrown around and rattled behind a leaky offensive line, and injuries piled up in a 22-6 loss. McCarthy was the latest victim, suffering a sprained ankle that will keep him out two to four weeks.
The Vikings have had games like this under O’Connell since he took over in 2022. Still, this one felt different, mainly because of the uncertainty around a 22-year-old quarterback.
O’Connell has a method to his madness in developing quarterbacks. But while the process has worked before, can we trust it this time around? And can it work in time to save a Vikings season that already feels on the ropes?
The process began long before McCarthy took the field on Sunday night. Coming off missing his rookie season with a knee injury, Minnesota made the bold move of letting McCarthy replace Sam Darnold while rejecting Aaron Rodgers‘ overtures.
From there, it was all about loading up the roster. The Vikings already had some of the pieces in Jefferson, Aaron Jones, and T.J. Hockenson. They doubled down by making bets across the offensive and defensive lines and building McCarthy’s confidence throughout the offseason.
Things looked good during a preseason drive against the Houston Texans. Although they struggled in the first three quarters against the Chicago Bears, McCarthy led a comeback victory and laid a steady foundation for growth.
So, what went wrong against the Falcons on Sunday night? The answer is: several things.
The first is that the bets the Vikings made along the offensive line haven’t paid off. Minnesota may have a more complex timetable for Christian Darrisaw’s return from injury than initially thought. His replacement, Justin Skule, has been overmatched, allowing seven pressures, including three sacks on 46 pass-blocking snaps, according to Pro Football Focus.
The Vikings also made a similar bet on Will Fries, who has allowed five pressures and a sack on his 55 pass-blocking snaps over the first two games. Ryan Kelly, 32, had a concussion history entering this season, and previous failed bets on draft picks Walter Rouse and Michael Jurgens busted in a big way with a pair of pressures allowed on Sunday night.
McCarthy is partially to blame for this. His five pressures created are tied for the second-most in the NFL after two weeks. The other can be attributed to Darrisaw’s absence, and he may return as early as next week’s game against the Cincinnati Bengals. However, the greater share of the blame could be attributed to O’Connell, who has become stubborn again.
There have been times during O’Connell’s tenure when he has placed the equivalent of a 400-level class on someone who would benefit from an introductory course. Even Adam Thielen admitted he was “swimming” trying to learn O’Connell’s offense in 2022. It has to be more difficult for a quarterback who’s adapting to the NFL.
Joshua Dobbs learned enough of the offense to beat the Atlanta Falcons in his first week but never mastered it. Even as Darnold was starting out, there were similar lows, such as a win in Jacksonville where he threw three interceptions and had many wondering if the carriage was turning into a pumpkin.
But there are also numbers suggesting O’Connell could be putting too much on McCarthy’s plate too soon.
McCarthy’s average depth of target is 10.3 yards, which is tied for sixth among qualifying quarterbacks after two games and a tick up from the 9.3 average Darnold had last season. While that’s not a massive difference, it’s behind an offensive line that has struggled to protect him with long-developing routes and given McCarthy the second-longest average time to throw this season at three seconds flat.
The absence of the running game has also remained a persistent theme. Minnesota’s 4.4 yards per carry is a slight uptick on the 4.1 average they posted last season. But its 45 rushing attempts are 22nd in the NFL.
That isn’t to say that O’Connell needs to put the training wheels on McCarthy when he returns. McCarthy has had some solid throws mixed in with his misfires, including a missed throw to Jalen Nailor on a third-and-one that could have flipped the game in the fourth quarter. Still, it’s fair to wonder if O’Connell is putting him in a position to succeed.
Thankfully, there is a precedent. Once Darnold had his nightmare game against the Jacksonville Jaguars, he went on a tear, throwing for 2,012 yards, 18 touchdowns, and two interceptions over his next seven games. While he had the advantage of being a veteran, he still had to make some adjustments.
There’s also a chance this offense looks a lot different when Darrisaw returns from injury and Jordan Addison returns from suspension. Either player could have made a positive impact on Sunday, and it’s another part of the infrastructure that McCarthy needs to succeed.
While it may have been nice to see McCarthy succeed immediately, he’ll continue his progress once he takes over under center again. O’Connell deserves the benefit of the doubt, and it could lead to McCarthy to eventually have the game Vikings fans envisioned when he ran onto the field Sunday night.