The Green Bay Packers improved to 2-0 after a 28-17 win over the Washington Commanders on Thursday night. They now have a 10-day rest before traveling to face the Cleveland Browns in their first road game of the season.
However, Green Bay suffered a major blow to its receiving corps on Thursday. Jayden Reed should be out for two months after breaking his collarbone on what would have been an incredible touchdown catch, although the score was nullified by a holding penalty on Anthony Belton. On the bright side, the mini-bye will give Zach Tom and Aaron Banks extra time to recover from their injuries and should also help Micah Parsons continue to heal from his back issue.
The Packers opened as 5.5-point favorites over Cleveland and are now 7.5-point favorites. They absolutely have to beat the Browns. However, they need to be careful, because it could be a trap game, especially considering they just beat two of the top-four NFC teams from last year. The team is feeling confident, but overconfidence could lead to sloppiness and lapses in attention to detail against an inferior opponent.
Cleveland’s defense is no joke. After Week 2, they rank as a top-six unit in both pass-rush win rate and run-block win rate. They have future Hall of Famer Myles Garrett up front and Denzel Ward in the secondary.
One could argue that Garrett is the only pass rusher in the league currently better than Parsons, meaning Matt LaFleur will need to be at his best to prevent Garrett from disrupting Green Bay’s offense.
However, Cleveland’s offense is far from impressive. Through two weeks, they ranked 31st in EPA per play and 27th in success rate. The Browns are 28th in EPA per pass, 24th in interception rate, and 26th in average depth of target percentage. They also have only scored 16.5 points per game.
Cleveland is only 28th in scramble rate, meaning Joe Flacco tends to stand in the pocket like a statue made of jello. That plays right into Green Bay’s hands, as they have totaled 52 pressures through two games, including 33 against a mobile quarterback like Jayden Daniels.
The overall matchup between these teams should heavily favor Green Bay’s defense. The Browns rank 24th in pass-blocking efficiency. When you pair that with a quarterback who rarely scrambles, it’s a recipe for consistently pressuring Flacco and forcing him into mistakes. Green Bay’s offense will have its hands full with Garrett, but based on overall talent and balance, the Packers still hold a slight edge.
In Week 4, Green Bay will travel to face the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday Night Football. It promises to be the ultimate revenge game for Parsons and Kenny Clark. The Cowboys game could break viewership records and instantly became one of the most anticipated matchups of the season the moment Parsons’ blockbuster trade to Green Bay was announced.
As expected after the Parsons trade, the Cowboys’ defense has taken a major step back. Through two weeks, they have surrendered 404 yards and 30.5 points per game. Opposing quarterbacks are completing over 75% of their passes against them. Dallas also ranks 30th in EPA per play, 30th in EPA per pass, and 23rd in EPA per rush.
Dak Prescott is a very good regular-season quarterback, but the last time he faced the Packers — which was not in the regular season — Dallas found themselves down 27-0 after he threw a pick-six to Darnell Savage. Green Bay won’t take this matchup lightly, especially with the Cowboys boasting a top-eight offense in EPA per play, success rate, and sack rate.
Still, the Packers will have a highly motivated Parsons, who will be eager to leave Jerry Jones even more disappointed by the end of Sunday night. History is on Green Bay’s side, as they have never lost at AT&T Stadium since it opened in 2009.
Green Bay’s offense has opened 2025 as a top-10 unit in total EPA, success rate, EPA per pass, and average depth of target. They should hold a slight edge over Cleveland, but that will largely depend on how they gameplan to neutralize Garrett. Moreover, Green Bay has the advantage over Dallas’ defense based on how that unit has regressed without Parsons.
Green Bay has a clear advantage over Cleveland’s offense and boasts a much stronger defense and defensive coordinator than they did the last time they met the Cowboys. Notably, the Packers became the first team in the Super Bowl era to start a season with two games in which they recorded at least four sacks, held opponents to 60 rushing yards or fewer, and allowed 200 net passing yards or less — and they did it against two of the top four offenses in the NFL.