Late in the fourth quarter, the Green Bay Packers had a 99.1% win probability over the Chicago Bears. Then, as has happened too many times, albeit not in this gloriously disastrous fashion, the Packers got in their own way and couldn’t stop making mistakes.
In a game with massive implications for the playoffs and the NFC North, the Packers beat themselves when it mattered most. Again.
It’s an ugly trend and a sign of a team that isn’t a serious title contender. In their September loss to the Cleveland Browns, Green Bay had a 95% win probability with 3:38 to go. They would go on to lose that affair 13-10 against a Browns team that only has three wins on its résumé this year.
Saturday’s loss at Soldier Field was even worse.
Josh Jacobs fumbled at Chicago’s three-yard line with Green Bay leading 6-3 in the third quarter. Malik Willis and Sean Rhyan botched the exchange on a fourth-and-one in overtime, killing Green Bay’s drive. Romeo Doubs couldn’t handle an onside kick with the Packers leading 16-9 with less than two minutes to go.
The concerning part about Green Bay’s self-inflicted errors in their losses is that they don’t do it in one particular form or fashion. Against the Bears, it was the inability to protect the football. Against the Denver Broncos two weeks ago, 10 penalties and two interceptions doomed the Packers. In a November loss to the Carolina Panthers, the team went 1-for-5 in the red zone.
Time and again, this team has shown it can beat anyone — and also lose to anyone. That isn’t the recipe for a serious championship contender. The debacle in Chicago, which had shades of the 2014 NFC Championship game in Seattle, was just the latest addition to the menagerie.
Head coach Matt LaFleur had a difficult time even comprehending what he had just witnessed when he took to the podium after the loss.
I’ve got to process what happened, how that happened and try to find ways for us to not put ourselves in these tough situations. The majority of the game I felt like we were pretty much in control of the game, and certainly it’s extremely disappointing when you can’t finish the job.
Green Bay led 16-6 with five minutes remaining and Chicago staring down the barrel of a third-and-20. The Bears did what they’ve done all year, pulling a rabbit — or, in this case, several rabbits — out of their hat. Meanwhile, the Packers did what they’ve done in their losses: completely melted down and became incapable of basic execution of the fundamentals.
Onside kicks had a success rate of 8% when Bears kicker Cairo Santos lined up. Doubs’ subsequent muff incited flashbacks to Brandon Bostick‘s infamous miscue, and the ensuing overtime loss in Seattle played in the minds of many Packers fans like a recurring nightmare.
Doubs’ mistake was far from the only one, something LaFleur referenced.
It’s never one play, though. There were so many plays in this game that if they go different, or if we make a play, or if we don’t fumble, or if we aren’t zero for five in the red zone, it’s never just one play and it’s never just one phase.
And that is why many don’t consider the Packers a serious contender. LaFleur is right, it isn’t one play in these losses. It’s a variety of critical errors across categories like penalties, turnovers, red-zone inefficiency, and even clock-management misjudgments.
Micah Parsons’ season-ending injury may have pulled down the curtains on that championship dream anyway, but if there was still a shred of hope, another loss in crippling fashion may sway even the most optimistic of Packers fans. How can anyone expect a team that trips over its own feet so frequently to run through the gauntlet of this NFC for three straight weeks? It feels far-fetched.
LaFleur said it best after the loss, and his blunt words might be how we remember this 2025 Packers team.
“It’s hard to sleep at night when you have a game like that,” he said.
These haven’t been ordinary losses the Packers have suffered this year. They are losses where you’re left wondering what the hell you just witnessed and how it’s even fathomable.
LaFleur is right. It’s hard to sleep after those. It wasn’t the first time this year, either.