It’s the most anticipated game of the season, and it’s not even close. Sure, the Philadelphia Eagles are coming to Lambeau on a Monday night. Lamar Jackson will bring his generational ability to town in December. There’s Thanksgiving Day in Motown, and there are still four games left against our two most hated rivals.
But nothing comes close to this. Aaron Rodgers against the Green Bay Packers. The only way it would be bigger is if the game were being played in Green Bay. Rodgers has said all the right things this week. He doesn’t view it as a revenge game; after all, there are only seven players left on the roster from the ’22 season, his last year in green and gold.
Still, we all know he’s dying to light up the Packers. Not in a vengeful way — too much time has passed at this point. He’d like to remind the Pack that there’s still a little chicken left on the bone, that he can still sling it a little bit, that he’s headlining a division leader as a 42-year-old starting QB. Not to mention, the Packers are the only team he’s never beaten; he’d love to put that 32nd notch on his belt.
I think he has a good chance to walk off the field smiling. It’s not because the Pittsburgh Steelers are better. Green Bay’s roster is superior across the board. Pittsburgh’s defense is a shell of its former self, leaning on aging veterans and giving up boatloads of explosive plays.
The last time the Steelers played, the aging Joe Flacco and his receivers registered 11 explosive plays. Pittsburgh gives up the third most in the league, despite their talented pass rushers up front (though T.J. Watt is questionable with a hip injury). Advantage Packers, whose passing offense lives and dies with the big play; they rank second in the league in explosive plays.
The problem is that the Steelers are one of the great bounce-back teams under Mike Tomlin. They rarely post back-to-back stinkers. When they’re a home underdog, especially after a loss, they’re almost unbeatable. Green Bay should have opportunities for big plays, and it feels like we’re finally going to see Matthew Golden find paydirt. (If he plays — he popped up on the injury report with a hip issue and is questionable.)
Dontayvion Wicks will miss the game. Although Christian Watson says he expects to play and the Packers will likely activate him from the IR, I still believe they might wait another week and not take any chances on Acrisure Field‘s questionable turf.
Rodgers and OC Arthur Smith will do everything they can to neutralize Micah Parsons and the Pack’s pass rush. Remember that Vikings game in London a few weeks back? Rodgers got rid of the ball quickly and made Brian Flores’ funky looks a non-factor. He’s getting rid of the ball in 2.63 seconds, third quickest in the league. That will be the offensive recipe on Sunday night.
One way to mitigate that is to mess up the timing of the receivers by jamming them at the line. That’s not how Jeff Hafley plays — let’s see if he changes things up on Sunday night. Look for the Steelers to lean in on Green Bay’s inability to cover tight ends and look early and often to their two-headed monster of Jonnu Smith and Pat Freiermuth. It is National Tight End Day, after all.
The last time the Packers won a game in Pittsburgh, the No. 1 song in the US was “I Think I Love You,” by the Partridge Family. That was 55 years ago. Bart Starr was the Pack’s starting quarterback. If the streak is to end on Sunday, the Pack will need to bust some big plays in the passing game. Watson and Golden’s availability will go a long way in determining whether that happens.
The Pack’s defense should get Devonte Wyatt back, and that would help a solid run defense that sprung some leaks last week. The Steelers don’t run the ball well, so take that away and you make Rodgers more predictable and unable to rely on play-action.
Rodgers may believe what he said, that this game is not about revenge. But you know he circled this game the moment he signed with the Steelers and would like nothing more than to remind the organization that he still has the juice. On this night, on this stage, I think his teammates raise their game, and he will make just enough plays to squeeze out the small upset win.
Steelers 24
Packers 23