Jalen Nailor has a big opportunity ahead of him. Not only is he slotted in as the third wide receiver on the Minnesota Vikings’ depth chart, but he’ll likely get to play up. Jordan Addison is expected to be suspended for one to three games after settling a reckless driving charge from last summer. While Justin Jefferson is likely to recover from his hamstring strain before the season starts… you never know.
This is all coming at a time when the Vikings are turning over their offense to a new quarterback in J.J. McCarthy. It’s a great time to build some early chemistry and become a go-to, safety-blanket option for a new signal caller. A fast start could propel Nailor to a breakout season.
Only, he’s been in this spot before. Addison missed Weeks 2 and 3 last season, just as Sam Darnold was starting to settle into the offense. After being targeted only once in Week 1 (for a 21-yard touchdown), Nailor got eight targets while Addison was out, hauling in six catches for 85 yards and two more scores. No one thought Nailor was going to catch a touchdown per game, but his 40-catch, 600-yard pace as a WR3 would have qualified as a breakout year.
Then Nailor more or less disappeared for the next 12 games. Not all of it was his fault. Addison and T.J. Hockenson returned, and their talent demands a sizable share of the targets. Still, Nailor didn’t often take advantage of his opportunities. The receiver grabbed just 13 of his 24 targets during that span, with a 17-game pace of 18 catches and 247 yards.
Nailor’s production last year makes it difficult to knock his season. His six touchdowns weren’t far behind Jefferson (10) or Addison (nine), and while 414 yards doesn’t jump off the page, his yards per reception are a different story. Among 142 receivers and tight ends who had 40-plus targets last season, Nailor was tied with Nico Collins for 21st in the NFL with 14.8 yards per catch. That was one spot behind Jefferson (14.9 Y/R) and ahead of Addison (13.9 Y/R).
Still, the next step is to put together a full season. Taking advantage of those early opportunities will be a big part of that, but what happens when Addison comes back? What happens in the games where Nailor gets two or three targets?
What can he do to ensure there aren’t games McCarthy doesn’t look his way?
It’s difficult to find consistency as a deep threat. Addison occasionally struggled to get involved in the offense last year. Still, that’s the challenge Nailor has in front of him. That will require him to clean up inconsistencies in his own game.
Nailor’s four drops stand out as a big one, which matches Addison despite getting half the targets. It’s also two behind Jefferson, whom Darnold targeted 111 more times last season. Reliability is often the best ability for a receiver, especially with a new quarterback, and McCarthy is going to need to have confidence that Nailor will haul in the targets coming his way.
It’s also a question as to whether there will be enough deep targets to go around while feeding “Speedy.” The Vikings added Jordan Mason this offseason and retooled their offensive line to give themselves the ability to slow-roll McCarthy. Darnold threw more deep balls than anyone in the NFL last season, which means Nailor may have to work on getting open in short-to-intermediate routes.
It’s a tall order to stand out in a crowded, superstar-filled receiver room on a week-to-week basis, but that’s what needs to happen. It’s easy to bring someone like Nailor back into the fold when you have years left on a rookie deal. But Nailor’s contract expires next season, and if the Vikings are going to reward him with a new deal, he’s gotta show that he has value add over grooming someone like Tai Felton for the role.
Nailor doesn’t need to be reminded of the stakes. He’s prominently in the “Best Shape Of His Life” club this offseason.
That’s a positive, but the Vikings need more, and Nailor needs more to stick in Minnesota or find a bigger opportunity elsewhere. It’s not about training camp, or the preseason, or however many games Addison is out for. Nailor has to squeeze the most out of his opportunities on a weekly basis and force McCarthy to look his way from now until January.
He’s in a great spot with tons of attention getting heaped on Jefferson and Co. The rest is up to him.