Somehow, the Chicago Bears, for so long a cavalcade of incompetence, are the Green Bay Packers’ biggest obstacle in the NFC North and maybe the entire NFC. With a statement win over the Philadelphia Eagles, who beat the Packers and Detroit Lions, the Bears took the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
The Bears are exceeding expectations in a building year under first-time head coach Ben Johnson, but they’ll face the Packers twice in the next three weeks. These matchups will determine the fate of the NFC North and have massive playoff implications.
Thankfully, the Packers are heating up at the right time, fresh off a big divisional win on Thanksgiving that saw Jordan Love win both NFC Offensive Player of the Week and one of FedEx’s Air and Ground Players of the Week.
They’ll need that type of performance from Love and the offense to defeat the Bears. Therefore, a calculated, mistake-free offensive game plan is the best way to take control of this matchup and minimize Chicago’s best assets.
Credit where it’s due, the Bears are 9-3. Packers fans may want to argue about the quality of some of those wins, but Ben Johnson’s team is not only finding ways to win but also just handily beating the 2024 Super Bowl champions. This is a team with a bright future and a coach they believe in.
The new Pope may smile upon his hometown team, but the Bears aren’t infallible.
The Bears are 6-1 in one-score games, with five fourth-quarter comeback wins (most in the NFL). As Marty McFly said, we’ve seen this one before. It’s far from the first time an NFC North team has had an unsustainable win rate in one-score games, and these teams often have short postseason runs (including when that team is Green Bay).
The primary difference maker in those games is Chicago’s incredible turnover rate. The Bears lead the NFL in turnovers, with a plus-17 differentiation thanks to 15 interceptions. No one else in the league has double digits, and Chicago is averaging two takeaways per game.
It’s hard for opposing teams to win when Chicago doesn’t let them have the ball, but the turnovers mask an otherwise less-impressive defense. For perspective, Bears cornerback Nahshon Wright leads the NFL in interceptions (five) as well as touchdowns allowed (seven).
The Bears give up the sixth-most yards per game (359) and the eighth-most points per game (25.6). Take away their takeaways, and Chicago’s defensive stats go from slightly below average to poor.
The Packers haven’t been a turnover-prone team, with Love throwing just three interceptions and four lost fumbles, but they’ll need to be especially careful against Chicago.
Matt LaFleur’s conservative game plans have been polarizing, but that could be the key to victory over the Bears. Against Minnesota, the Packers ran the ball (mostly) effectively, trying to drive down the field and trusting their defense to handle J.J. McCarthy.
Expect LaFleur to chew up the block with a balanced attack to minimize Chicago’s chances with the ball. LaFleur beat Dan Campbell at his own game by being aggressive against the Lions. That’s probably not the best approach this week, but the Packers will still be able to score.
The Packers are coming off one of their best offensive performances of the season, and Toyotathon Love is out to play. The offensive line is playing its best football (though far from perfect), and the Packers could get their best YAC receiver back if Jayden Reed is cleared to play.
If the offense does its job and doesn’t turn the ball over, it makes the defense’s life much easier.
Johnson can scheme a beautiful run game, making the most of the Sonic and Knuckles duo as Detroit’s offensive coordinator and bringing that approach to Chicago.
The Bears beat the Lions with two 100-yard rushers, their first game with such since the days of Walter Payton. D’Andre Swift received last week’s other FedEx award for his 125-yard day.
The Packers haven’t been great against the run and lost Devonte Wyatt for the season. If the score stays close and Chicago can run to their heart’s content, it’ll be a rough day at the office.
If the Packers can score, that’ll make Chicago’s offense much more one-dimensional. Caleb Williams might be racking up fourth-quarter comebacks, but it’s the most overrated stat in football. Jeff Hafley’s defense will breathe easier if Chicago needs to rely on Williams.
Williams is improving, especially compared to last year’s ineffective offense, but he is still below average in most passing metrics. A good rushing attack, stout offensive line, and excellent scheme make the sophomore quarterback’s life much easier.
The Packers have a great defense and will make plays of their own, but against Chicago, a good offense that forces the Bears to be one-dimensional might be the best defense.
We’ll learn a lot about these two squads over the next three weeks, and it starts at Lambeau this Sunday. If the Packers can avoid takeaways and force Caleb Williams to need to be the hero, that complementary football can be the fuel to keep their divisional sweep alive.