Saturday’s loss in Chicago left a sort of numbing feeling through the body and soul. What was there to do but stare at a wall for hours afterward? The Green Bay Packers gifted the Chicago Bears a win they should’ve never had. As a result, Green Bay’s division odds dropped from 52.9% to 10.9%.
Thankfully for the Packers, old pal Aaron Rodgers did Green Bay a solid by beating the Detroit Lions on Sunday. Now, things are back in motion for Matt LaFleur’s squad and, if the odds are correct, Saturday night won’t be the last Chicago-Green Bay matchup of the season.
If the playoffs started tomorrow, the Packers would play in Chicago on Wild Card Weekend. Of course, a lot can change in the last two weeks, but even factoring in the many different permutations over the coming weeks, a Packers-Bears rematch still looks likely.
Detroit’s stunning loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday clinched a playoff berth for the Bears. It moved the Packers up to a 94% chance to make the playoffs, per The Athletic’s model. Any combination of one Packers win or one Lions loss in the last two weeks will lock up a postseason berth for Green Bay and simultaneously eliminate Detroit.
Green Bay will play host to the Baltimore Ravens on Saturday, who finished Sunday night’s loss to New England without Lamar Jackson on the field due to injury. Then the Packers will finish Week 18 at Minnesota, where quarterback J.J. McCarthy left on Sunday and did not return due to a hand injury.
The point is, despite having a million injuries, Green Bay should still be a playoff team.
Now look at the rest of the picture in the NFC.
At the moment, the Bears are the 2-seed, one game clear of the Philadelphia Eagles. However, it’s really two because Chicago won the head-to-head matchup. The No. 4 seed will go to the winner of the NFC South between the Carolina Panthers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The Eagles have a date next week in Buffalo before finishing up with the Washington Commanders. Chicago heads to San Francisco and finishes with Detroit at home. Unless the Bears go 0-2 and the Eagles go 2-0, the No. 2 seed is going to Chicago.
If the Bears were to go 0-2 and the Packers go 2-0, with wins over the Ravens and Vikings, Green Bay would claim the NFC North. If that happens and the Buffalo Bills take care of Philadelphia, the Packers would land the No. 2 seed. That would take a lot going right for a Packers team that can only find things to go wrong. It’s a scenario that would, in all likelihood, also put Chicago as the No. 7 seed. Thus, it would still be Green Bay against Chicago, but at Lambeau Field instead.
The Los Angeles Rams are the No. 5 seed at the moment despite being 11-4, and the San Francisco 49ers are 10-4 entering Monday night’s affair with the Indianapolis Colts, but only hanging in at the No. 6 seed. Green Bay is far enough away from the Rams and Niners at the moment that they’re unlikely to leapfrog either team, and the same can be said about Chicago’s cushion with the Eagles. So it would take some improbable configurations for a Packers-Bears Wild Card Weekend not to happen.
It’s not crazy to believe the Bears could lose on the road against the 49ers and at home against the Lions. Consider that a win in Week 17 for the Packers eliminates the Lions. Even if that’s the case, Green Bay has seen this movie before.
In Aaron Rodgers’ last season in Green Bay, the Packers needed to simply beat a Lions team that had been eliminated earlier that afternoon on the final day of the regular season. Detroit relished the opportunity to play spoiler and promptly chewed up and spit out the Packers, eliminating them from the playoffs under the Lambeau Field lights.
There isn’t a soul in the world who thinks Dan Campbell wouldn’t get the same satisfaction going to Chicago in Week 18 with the Lions playing for pride but knowing a win over the Bears could take away a division crown from Ben Johnson, who left Detroit last offseason.
The scenarios are aplenty, and they can zig and zag in many different directions, but a Packers-Bears rematch is one of the most consistently likely scenarios. Go crazy with ESPN’s playoff machine. The status quo is Packers at Bears. Complete chaos is the Bears at the Packers. Still, unless the 49ers were to lose out or the Rams were to free-fall in two games to end the year, it would very much set up to be a No. 2 vs. No. 7-seeded matchup between Green Bay and Chicago in the postseason.
That, as the kids would say, would be pure cinema.