On Wednesday night, the Minnesota Twins received bad news when Pablo López was diagnosed with a teres major muscle strain in his throwing shoulder. The injury is the same one that ended Joe Ryan’s season a year ago and will keep Minnesota’s top starter out for two to three months.
That’s not a great development for a team that improved to 34-27 and climbed into second place in the American League Central division with a 6-1 win over the Athletics. Pitching depth derailed their season a year ago. Even if you’re bullish on Zebby Matthews and David Festa, it’s hard to replace a player who was on track for his second All-Star appearance with a 5-3 record and 2.82 ERA.
The Twins need a hero. And like a modern-day western, they can lean on a sheriff.
Chris Paddack has gone by the nickname of “The Sheriff,” but his profile coming into the year resembled that of William “Little Bill” Daggett, Jr. more than Wyatt Earp. Minnesota’s front office has sometimes taken on too much injury risk, and Paddack posted an 18-17 record and 4.90 ERA since a solid rookie season in 2019 (9-7, 3.33 ERA). He was 7-5 with a 4.82 ERA and a second Tommy John surgery in four seasons with the Twins.
Paddack changed his throwing program in the offseason. However, in his first start this season, he allowed nine earned runs in a loss to the Chicago White Sox. Paddack didn’t make it into the sixth inning in his first seven starts, and many started to scream for him to be moved to the bullpen or designated for assignment.
While he wasn’t going deep into games, Paddack started turning in some quality outings. Paddack hasn’t allowed more than three runs in a start since his first start in Chicago. He owns a 2-4 record with a 2.47 ERA in his past 11 starts and has neutralized hitters by trusting his fastball more (up from 42.9% to 49.9% according to Baseball Savant) while mixing in a slider (12.1%) and curveball (12.1%).
Other concerning factors include a career-high 7.5% walk rate and a career-low 18.7% strikeout rate. Paddack’s 4.03 expected ERA (xERA) suggests he’ll regress, but not to the lows he endured over the past few seasons.
The most encouraging aspect is that Paddack seems to get stronger as the season progresses. He’s coming off his best start of the year, allowing one run over eight innings and striking out 10 batters in Sunday’s 2-1 loss to the Seattle Mariners. He’s also gone over seven innings three times in his past five starts and owns a 1.64 ERA during that time.
Paddack’s resurgence is a nice storyline for a team looking to catch the Detroit Tigers in the standings. It also allows him to live up to his “Sheriff” nickname.
The westerns often depict a sheriff as the hero who brings order to a rugged, lawless landscape. The Twins have built a solid infrastructure, but López’s injury turns the rotation into the Wild West.
Rocco Baldelli told The Athletic’s Dan Hayes that he expects López “to pitch significantly for us this year.” Even with the optimistic remarks, López likely won’t return until mid-August or September, leaving the Twins with a lot of innings to fill.
Many will look to Ryan (6-2, 2.91 ERA) or Bailey Ober (4-1, 3.48 ERA) to fill the void. However, the two-horse approach failed miserably when Ryan went down last season as the Twins free-falled out of the pennant race. Matthews and Festa gained valuable experience during that stretch, but neither has proven they can reach the sixth inning consistently, forcing Baldelli to lean on the bullpen.
Minnesota’s relievers have been up to the challenge, posting the third-best ERA (3.11) behind the New York Mets (2.86) and San Francisco Giants (2.38). The Twins also rank 16th in reliever innings this season, indicating that Baldelli has managed the group well. Still, they’ll need a third starter to step up and keep them from burning out at the end of the year.
It’s a scenario that allows Paddack to have the redemption story that nobody saw coming at the beginning of the year. If he can ride in and save the day, the Twins will have a shot at making the postseason even with one of their most valuable guns in the holster for the next two to three months.