The Minnesota Vikings made an aggressive move by not breaking the bank to retain Sam Darnold this past offseason. They believed they could build a contending roster around J.J. McCarthy, while thinking Darnold could only take the team so far in the playoffs. Losses in Week 18 and the Wild Card round last year were primary factors in the decision, which took the luster out of a 14-3 season in which Darnold threw for 4,319 yards and 35 touchdowns.
Instead, the Vikings are sitting at 5-8 and will travel to play the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday Night Football. Minnesota could be officially eliminated from the playoffs by kickoff if the Chicago Bears or Detroit Lions win their games earlier in the day. And, perhaps worst of all, McCarthy hasn’t had the type of season the Vikings projected in his first year as a starter.
McCarthy ranks last among all qualified quarterbacks in passer rating (67.4) and completion percentage (56). He did have an efficient day last Sunday against the Washington Commanders, completing 16 of 23 passes for 163 yards and three touchdowns. But it required Kevin O’Connell to overhaul his offensive approach, running the ball a season-high 53.4% of the time (excluding kneeldowns).
As a result, Justin Jefferson has had the least productive season of his career. He has caught 64 passes for 810 yards and two touchdowns, far off the 96.5 yards per game average he had throughout his first five seasons.
Moving on from Darnold to McCarthy signaled that settling for Wild Card berths wasn’t going to be good enough. That may sound funny considering the Vikings won’t even sniff the playoffs this season. But aggressive moves don’t always create positive results. Sometimes you fall flat on your face.
In many ways, the team the Vikings are playing on Sunday embodies the idea of doing “just enough” to stay relevant. The Cowboys are 6-6-1, resetting expectations for what they’re capable of every week. They started 1-2, then shocked everyone by tying the Packers 40-40 in Week 4. Dallas was 3-5-1 at their bye week, then won three in a row, including victories over the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs.
At 6-5-1, the Cowboys looked like they could be dangerous down the stretch. But they lost 44-30 to the Lions, falling back to .500, where they probably belong.
However, Dallas still lurks in the playoff hunt. Despite only being one spot ahead of the Vikings in the NFC standings, the Cowboys have an 11% chance to make the playoffs, and that goes up to 15% if they win on Sunday night, per Next Gen Stats. Minnesota is the last of the NFC teams not to be eliminated, although it’s just a matter of time.
But the Vikings and Cowboys also have different playstyles. Dallas leads the league with 394.9 total yards per game, while Minnesota ranks 29th with 275.7. George Pickens (1,179) and CeeDee Lamb (865) rank in the top 10 in receiving yards and have combined for 11 touchdowns.
Sure, the Cowboys’ defense ranks 29th in yards allowed and 31st in points. But they’re getting their playmakers involved, and losing 44-30 to the Lions is more fun for the average fan than losing 26-0 to the Seattle Seahawks.
And maybe that’s all that Jerry Jones wants: to be relevant. The Cowboys have won five playoff games since their last Super Bowl win following the 1995 season. They are the only NFC team that hasn’t reached the championship game in that span. But turn on ESPN or NFL Network, and there’s a good chance that they’re still talking about the Cowboys.
Even if the Cowboys make the playoffs, can they really make a meaningful run? Or will they get beaten in the first round, forcing us to listen to talking heads debate how far Dak Prescott can lead this team?
It’s hard to envision the Vikings would be worse than they currently are had they retained Darnold. But just how good would they have been? They haven’t been able to generate takeaways this year. Minnesota is tied at 20th with four other teams with 14 turnovers forced. The run defense also hasn’t been as good this season. They’re tied for 16th in EPA per run allowed, down from first in 2024.
Even the Darnold-led Seahawks are taking a 2024 Vikings-esque route to the playoffs. The Seahawks are 10-3, largely because Darnold ranks first in yards per completion (8.9) and is among the top five in most major statistical categories. Seattle’s defense ranks second in EPA allowed per play (-0.18). Still, if the playoffs ended today, the Seahawks would own the NFC’s No. 5 seed and would be on the road to play a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team that already beat them this season.
There’s a thin line in the NFL between being “good enough” and being a contender. There’s another line between being “good enough” and irrelevant. Sunday’s game between the Vikings and Cowboys falls in the latter category. Dallas’ season may continue after the game, even with a win, but how far will they actually go if they make the playoffs?
But the Cowboys are still built so their best playmakers can contribute. That can help those players stay engaged, while Jefferson is looking for his first 100-yard game since Week 5. When’s the last time the Vikings completed a deep pass down the field?
Dallas may not go very far in the playoffs, but they still have a pulse and can usually be counted on to score a ton of points. Perhaps that wouldn’t have been good enough for the Vikings going into this season. But right now? The prospect of scoring points and still being alive in the playoff hunt sounds pretty nice.