The Final Piece Of J.J. McCarthy’s Performance Review Is Obvious But Hard To Measure

They say that actionable goals and metrics are important in the business world. I had a manager once tell me, “If you can’t measure it, you won’t achieve it.”

At the end of this season, when the Minnesota Vikings sit down with J.J. McCarthy to evaluate his performance, there are some important benchmarks and metrics we’ll need McCarthy to have met down the stretch if he’s going to be their uncontested starter next year. No one wants this to end up being a Josh Rosen situation where the team moves on from a young quarterback after a single season. Still, just two weeks ago, that scenario didn’t seem so crazy.

If you had asked me what I needed to see from J.J. McCarthy two weeks ago, I would’ve started with “Let’s see him not play like the 32nd-best starting quarterback in the NFL,” because frankly, he had yet to do so over the course of the season.

We’d seen brief flashes of potential, like his fourth quarter in Chicago or holding on to the win in Detroit, but we’d yet to see him play a full game comparable to an above-average starter. McCarthy then played two of his best games of the season, two complete 60-minute performances, in which he was far better than above average. It may have been against two of the worst defenses in the NFC, the Washington Commanders and Dallas Cowboys, but beggars can’t be choosers.

Play a full 60-minute performance? Check. Stack back-to-back quality performances? Check. Give Vikings fans a brief respite from being the laughingstock of football? Check!

But as McCarthy attempts to stack positive performances and show the necessary improvement, there’s a new action item on his agenda that he desperately needs to solve if he’s going to remain the long-term answer at quarterback. He’s got to solve his Justin Jefferson problem.

Justin Jefferson isn’t just some receiver. Justin Jefferson has been the receiver in the NFL during his time in Minnesota. Even amidst the rotating cast of characters of quarterbacks throwing to him, Jefferson has thrown out elite performance after elite performance in his career, even with the likes of Josh Dobbs, Nick Mullens, or even Carson Wentz chucking him the ball. And yet, even as McCarthy has played back-to-back games at a level higher than any of the names I just mentioned, his connection to this franchise’s greatest player has been an abject failure.

Jefferson hasn’t gone over 80 yards in a game since Week 5 in London. He’s had four catches for 33 yards on 12 targets the last two games during McCarthy’s resurgence. Targeting Jefferson this season has been one of the most inefficient plays in the offense. McCarthy has two touchdowns and a whopping 10 interceptions on throws to the franchise player. For the first time since entering the league, Jefferson is going to struggle to hit 1,000 yards, something he did even in 2023 when he missed seven games and played with a revolving door of backup quarterbacks throwing to him.

To be clear, I don’t think it’s fair for McCarthy to shoulder all of the blame here. It takes two to tango, and so far, both dance partners have been stepping on two left feet. McCarthy has had overthrows and ill-timed decisions head Jefferson’s way, but Jefferson has also had drops, slips, and miscues. The two just aren’t clicking the way they should. I have some theories as to why that might be.

The simplest possibility is just that Jefferson isn’t 100% healthy. I feel like it’s an underrated factor. Whenever any player is struggling in a given season, people assume that simply because they’re suiting up, it means the multiple-car-crashes worth of physical punishment they endure each week hasn’t resulted in some sort of nagging injury slowing them down or affecting their focus.

I have no insider information regarding Jefferson’s health. Still, would it shock me to see an offseason headline with Jefferson opening up about how he’s finally over a nagging health issue that held him back in 2025? Absolutely not. Seeing as we have no solid evidence to support that theory, though, I’m not willing to rest my case on that excuse.

Next, there’s McCarthy’s side of things. What is it about a target to Jefferson that would be more challenging for McCarthy to complete than another fade to Jalen Nailor? Well, for starters, Jefferson is seeing the most aggressive coverage plans from opposing defenses. Even during this slow stretch, Jefferson is still garnering the respect of opposing defensive coordinators to see double coverage and often the defense’s best player. That means that, while it may open up opportunities for the likes of Jordan Addison or Nailor, the defense will be focused on locking Jefferson up tight.

But that’s nothing new, though. Defenses have always gone into the game with creative and aggressive game plans to stop Jefferson; they’re just suddenly working in a way they never have throughout his career. So there’s something about McCarthy’s play targeting Jefferson, coverage aside, that is failing in a way that Nick Mullens or Carson Wentz did not. It may have something to do with the tighter windows that throwing to a double-covered Jefferson requires. With some of the accuracy inconsistencies McCarthy has had during this debacle with his throwing mechanics, Jefferson may simply be getting unlucky, praying for a catchable target.

Ultimately, Jefferson must control what he can control. And for his own sake, he’s got to play better also. If McCarthy is finally hitting you anywhere in your relative frame, you’re paid $35 million to bring that ball in, regardless of whether it’s perfectly placed or not. You need to step up your game as a route runner to the level that made you the highest-paid receiver in the league, and give the young quarterback obvious open windows to get you the football. You need to play with the physicality, not to allow a pesky Amik Robertson-type corner throw to get you off your game, despite how handsy they may get with you.

For this marriage to work, it’s going to take work. The tandem has three more games to make “J.J. to J.J.” a reality in a tangible way. It’s also important for Kevin O’Connell, the offensive mastermind, to be the couple’s counselor, as these two need to get on the same page. But ultimately, given the two résumés we’re looking at, it’s pretty obvious who’s getting the kids in the divorce if things don’t work out here. (The kids are the loyal fanbase in this analogy.)

Jefferson has enough of a body of work to get the benefit of the doubt that these woes continue, that they’re more about his quarterback than himself. Not that he should be seen as blameless, but he’s probably the only player more important to the Minnesota Vikings than J.J. McCarthy. And if McCarthy can’t find a way to make things work with Jefferson, it’s hard to imagine him finding himself as an uncontested starter again next season.