Go 1-0 every week. That’s what Green Bay Packers head coach Matt LaFleur constantly preaches. Implicit in that idea is that the Packers are treating every opponent in every game equally. In reality, it’s just not the case.
Thursday’s Thanksgiving game between the Packers and the Detroit Lions may be the deciding factor in who claims the NFC North.
If you hear some grumbling all of a sudden, it’s probably coming from Chicago, where Bears fans might bristle at the notion that the division will come down to Detroit and Green Bay. The Bears are leading the division, so aren’t they the top contenders?
The numbers tell the story.
Via The New York Times / The Athletic, this game will be a sticking point in the race for the NFC North crown. Green Bay has a 51% chance to win the NFC North. A win on Thursday and that percentage skyrockets to 72%. A loss, and it dips to 31%.
It’s just as dramatic for Detroit.
According to The Athletic’s models, the Lions have a 33% chance of winning the division. A win over the Packers on Turkey Day and that jumps to 52%. A loss, and it sinks to 11%.
Even with the Bears leading Green Bay by a half-game and Detroit by one game, the oddsmakers see a lower chance that Chicago will claim the NFC North. The Athletic’s current picture has Green Bay at 51% to win the division, while Detroit is at 33%. It’s Chicago, even farther back at 16%.
If you don’t want to believe in just one model, ESPN’s projections have the Packers at 45% to win the NFC North, with Detroit in second at 32% and Chicago next at 24%.
Chicago has been quite the story this year.
The Bears blocked the Las Vegas Raiders’ field-goal attempt with less than a minute to go to escape Sin City with a one-point win this year. Ben Johnson’s squad also beat the lowly Washington Commanders on a walk-off field goal as time expired. It took a 58-yard touchdown from Caleb Williams to Colston Loveland with 17 seconds left for Chicago to take out the 3-8 Cincinnati Bengals.
Chicago scored two touchdowns in the final four minutes to squeak by the New York Giants, 24-20. It was another walk-off field goal as time expired two weeks ago to claim victory in Minnesota. Last week, the Bears had to hang on late to beat the Mason Rudolph-led Pittsburgh Steelers, 31-28.
The Bears still have trips to Philadelphia, Green Bay, and San Francisco on the schedule and will also host the Packers and Lions. It’ll be far different than going up against Spencer Rattler, Tyler Huntley, Geno Smith, Joe Flacco, J.J. McCarthy, and Rudolph.
That’s partly why this matchup between Detroit and Green Bay is the ultimate pendulum-swinging game that will put one of these two in the driver’s seat in the division.
A loss will hurt the Lions far more, as Detroit has already lost to Green Bay in Week 1 and sits at 1-2 in the division. The Lions, the Bears, and the Minnesota Vikings have two losses in the division, while the Packers are 2-0. Seeing Green Bay get to 3-0 while the Lions would dip to 1-3 with a Green Bay victory is why the odds to win the North would tailspin to 11% for Detroit.
A loss for Green Bay would sting, but with two matchups against Chicago and one against Minnesota remaining, it wouldn’t be impossible to come back from.
Green Bay hasn’t claimed a division title since 2021. It’s the longest drought for the Packers since a three-year stretch from 2008 to 2010. Of course, we all know what happened in 2010.
It goes without saying that getting a home playoff game at Lambeau would be huge. The last three postseason contests for LaFleur and Co. have all come on the road. The Packers haven’t hosted a postseason affair since the 13-10 loss in the divisional round to the San Francisco 49ers in the 2021-22 season.
Win on Thanksgiving, and the Packers drastically improve their chances of a home playoff game. All the math suggests this Lions-Packers matchup has massive postseason implications. Unless the Bears improbably continue their magic carpet ride of a season, this division will come down to Detroit and Green Bay, and the Packers have a chance to take a nearly insurmountable lead.