Despite splitting the season series, a constant in both games between the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears was Green Bay’s ability to suffocate Chicago’s offense in the first half. All season long, the Bears have tended to come back strong in the second half. Therefore, entering a hostile environment on Saturday, Jordan Love and Co. must start fast.
In two matchups this year, Jeff Hafley’s defense has allowed a grand total of three points in the first half to the Bears. Green Bay led 14-3 at halftime in the win at Lambeau Field. In the collapse in Chicago, the Packers led 6-3 at halftime and also led 13-3 entering the fourth quarter.
Chicago has made a living off heroic comebacks, led by quarterback Caleb Williams. This regular season, the Bears had an NFL record six wins when trailing with less than two minutes to go. One of those miraculous wins was the one over the Packers just a few weeks ago.
On the one hand, there’s a clear belief among the players in Chicago that they are never out of a game, that they’ll always figure it out in the end. It’s come to fruition more times than not this year. On the other hand, it isn’t sustainable to lean on this strategy come the postseason. To negate Chicago’s strength as comeback kids, the Packers must capitalize on their early-game struggles.
The Bears ranked No. 16 in first-half points per game and ranked No. 20 in first-half points per game allowed. Green Bay was fourth in first-half points allowed per game, a trend that manifested in the two previous meetings.
Getting off to a fast start will not only put pressure on the Bears, but it will also suck out at least some of the energy from what will be a raucous crowd at Soldier Field. Just look at Green Bay’s two previous appearances in the playoffs.
Two years ago in Dallas, the Packers jumped out to a 27-0 lead in the first half and never looked back. The Cowboys were shell-shocked, and the crowd was left completely deflated. Green Bay never allowed Dallas or the fans to get into the game and make a difference.
Last year in Philadelphia, Keisean Nixon fumbled the opening kickoff, which led to an immediate touchdown for the Eagles. The Packers trailed 10-0 at halftime and never stood a chance. The Philly crowd made itself heard far and wide from start to finish.
This is Caleb Williams’ first playoff start. This is Ben Johnson’s first playoff game as a head coach. Green Bay has been around the block with Love and head coach Matt LaFleur the last two years, and they know the importance of starting fast. Getting that early pressure on the Bears will be paramount.
Chicago has had notoriously slow starts on offense, not just against Green Bay but throughout the stretch run of the regular season.
In Week 18 against the Detroit Lions, the Bears were blanked through three quarters. It took some of that magic fairy dust for the Bears to score two touchdowns and convert both two-point conversions to tie the game at 16-16 in the fourth quarter. The week prior, in a shootout against the San Francisco 49ers, the Bears scored an offensive touchdown in the first 15 minutes (and a defensive one) but gave up 14 points in the opening frame.
It’s something on Johnson’s radar; he spoke about it on Monday.
It can all be addressed. We’re not far away. You never are in this league. You’re really close. And so we’ve just got to clean up some of the mental errors we had. I think, in the first 11 plays we counted six mentals as an offense. When we’re facing a good team you can’t do that. So we’ll clean that up. We’ll be a lot sharper here going forward and we’re going to be OK.
The Packers will hope the trend continues and that they can pounce first, putting pressure on Chicago. If there’s a role reversal done, it’s fair to wonder how Green Bay would respond.
This Packers team has been missing parts for weeks and is stumbling into the postseason after losing four straight. Yet the vibes coming from the locker-room press conferences tell a story of a team that firmly believes it will go out and win on Saturday. Still, a slow start could let doubt creep in.