We were long overdue for a week that saw the dogs rise up, and we finally got it in Week 9. Six puppies won outright, and we posted our first 3-0 week of the season. I’m feeling a wave of momentum because I love the three puppies I landed on this week.
Dolphins +9 ½ vs. Buffalo
I know, I know, the last time we saw the Fish, they vomited all over themselves against the Ravens. Meanwhile, the Bills flexed against Patrick Mahomes. What could possibly possess me to back Miami this week?
To start with, Josh Allen is just 7-7-1 ATS against the Dolphins in his career, and his counterpart, Tua, has this uncanny ability to rise up at home after getting pummeled at home the previous week.
Plus, unlike the Chiefs, they can attack the Bills where they’re most vulnerable: on the ground. Look for De’Von Achane to run wild and outperform Buffalo’s top threat, James Cook, who’s been limited in practice this week.
Miami came in with extra rest, and the Bills could be in slight letdown mode after last week’s showdown. I say the Dolphins keep it within a score.
Cardinals +6 ½ at Seattle
This is my favorite game of the week. Arizona stays close with everybody, and now that they’ve unofficially named Jacoby Brissett their starter, I think they’ll continue to be a very competitive squad. They fell behind big early in the first matchup, but rallied to lose on a walk-off field goal.
I don’t love the fact that the Cards are playing on a short week, but I think the Seahawks are a little overvalued right now, following their dominant primetime performance in Washington. Arizona’s defense will make things much trickier for Sam Darnold, and, strange as it seems, Seattle has struggled to cover at home — they seem to cover every game on the road. If I were near a sports book this weekend, I’d give Arizona a taste on the money line.
49ers +4 ½ vs. L.A. Rams
Only one stat really matters when you handicap this divisional matchup: The underdog is 13-1 over the last seven years. Do you really need anything else? OK, Sean McVay is 1-7 on the road against Kyle Shanahan. As hot as Matthew Stafford has been, and as injured as the 49ers defense is, the trends are favoring the home team.
The only thing giving me pause is that San Francisco tends to fall flat after a win on the road, but they’ll be up for the renewal of this rivalry. This might be Mac Jones’ final start, and his weapons are getting healthier, and he’ll continue to rely heavily on Christian McCaffrey. This line should be closer to 3. Feels like a field goal game to me.
Last Week: 3-0
Season: 11-16