It’s a tricky week 17 NFL slate, with three games already in the books and several teams having questionable motivation as their attention inevitably turns to 2026 draft position. Nevertheless, I’ve found three puppies I like, as I look to bank back-to-back winning weeks.
Colts +5 ½ vs. Jaguars
Yes, I watched the Colts on Monday night, and no, I was not impressed with their defense, or much of anything, but this seems like a bit of an overreaction. The Jags are on fire, fresh off a win in Denver and looking for their seventh straight win, while the Colts’ playoff hopes are hanging by a gray Philip Rivers whisker.
You’d expect the whole world would be backing the Jags in this one, but the line has dropped a point as the week has gone on. Suspicious. These teams know each other well, and though the Jaguars have had the upper hand of late, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them slip up a bit here and allow Indy to hang around.
Browns +3 vs. Steelers
Part of my thinking here lies in motivation, or the lack thereof. I think the Steelers will be gift-wrapped the AFC North thanks to a Packers victory over the Ravens on Saturday night and may end up resting guys in what amounts to a meaningless game. Even if the Ravens spring the upset, the division will likely come down to their Week 18 matchup.
Meanwhile, Cleveland has been feisty at home all season, and the defense is still playing well and will do everything it can to help Myles Garrett set the season sack record against Aaron Rodgers. Love the Browns to win this one outright.
Dolphins +5 ½ vs. Buccaneers
Tampa Bay is in freefall and hasn’t covered a spread in seven weeks. They need to win here to set up a showdown for the NFC South title next week, unless the Panthers lose, in which case they’d stay alive regardless.
Baker Mayfield looks like a shell of his former, healthier self, and the Bucs’ run defense has been very leaky of late — not a good time to face De’Von Achane and the Dolphins’ running attack. Miami has been very competitive over the past 5-6 weeks, and there’s no reason why they can’t keep this one close.
Last Week: 2-1
Season: 22-25-1