To say it wasn’t a September to remember is an understatement, but the good news is it’s over, and we’re on to October.
Here are the three puppies I’ll be riding this week:
Browns +3 ½ vs. Minnesota
I don’t make it a habit to back rookie QBs making their starting debut, especially when that QB has to deal with mad scientist Brian Flores and his diabolical defense. However, this feels like a game where both teams will struggle to move the ball down the field, and barring turnovers, it is likely to be a low-scoring affair.
Look for Kevin Stefanski to put rookie Dillon Gabriel in the best position possible, mainly handing off to fellow rookie Quinshon Judkins, who may get 30 touches. He was very good against the blitz in college, with 63 TDs and just 7 picks, so maybe he’ll be ready for what Flores throws at him.
Minnesota’s leaky run defense is still without Blake Cashman manning the middle. Meanwhile, Minnesota’s offensive line is devastated by injuries and will be no match for Cleveland’s stifling front seven.
Flip a coin. Someone’s going to win 16-13; I’ll take the hook all day.
Broncos +4 ½ at Philadelphia
It takes stones to bet against the Eagles, who have used a bit of luck to make their way to 4-0. Their offense is still an utter mess, and they’ll face the best defense they’ve seen all season on Sunday.
I worry a bit about Bo Nix against a good team on the road. He hasn’t gotten a signature win yet and will have his hands full himself with a Vic Fangio defense. However, everyone is becoming more comfortable on offense, and I think the Broncos can keep pace with an Eagles team that isn’t yet playing at a championship level, despite their impressive record.
Patriots +8 ½ at Buffalo
Here I go again, betting against another unbeaten team, but this just seems like too many points for a divisional rivalry where both games were close in Drake Maye’s rookie year. The Pats are getting healthier on defense and will move the ball on Buffalo’s leaky defense enough to keep this one tight.
The Bills have beaten up on the Jets, Dolphins, and Saints the last few weeks and haven’t put any of them away easily. Mike Vrabel comes in with a hungry team looking to prove something, and he has always been profitable as an underdog. The Bills will likely escape, but it won’t be more than a one-score victory.
Last Week: 0-3
Season: 3-9