Locks
NFL (1 Unit) Green Bay Packers/Chicago Bears First Half Under 22.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Prime Video
I’m seeing this opinion being shared a little more commonly than I’d like, but the number just has to be played here. Both of these teams are in the bottom half of the league in first half scoring, and are much more of second-half teams in general.
On a wintry and cold January day with Chicago winds playing a factor, I think we could be in for a very boring start to this game. These teams were a combined 23-11 to the under in first halves this season, which includes both regular season meetings. Both of those games saw a scoreless first quarter, so starting slow is just what they tend to do.
Green Bay is going to have to lean on the run game, which should be successful against a bottom-tier Bears run defense, and drastically shortens the game. With the Packers also 4th in first half points allowed, this slow-starting Chicago team should struggle in the first playoff game for Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson, giving us another first half under.
Wild Card Saturday Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)
0.5 Unit – Puka Nacua Over 90 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Puka Nacua Over 7.5 Receptions (+100)
0.5 Unit – Puka Nacua Longest Reception Over 27 Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Kyren Williams Over 69.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Rico Dowdle Over 47.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Chuba Hubbard Over 24.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) SMU/Duke Over 158.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 1:00 PM CT on ESPN2
I’m expecting high-level shot making in this game, from both teams, and some pace to go with it. All season I’ve been questioning Duke’s perimeter defense, mostly from a three-point production standpoint, but I think there’s another vulnerability here. SMU’s guards are elite in the pick and roll while the Blue Devils aren’t great at defending it, so I think the Mustangs can keep making a living off the mid-range.
SMU will also bring the tempo, as they’re a classic Andy Enfield team at this stage. The Mustangs are running the 28th-fastest offensive possessions, while Duke is right there with them at 27th-fastest. So both teams and their elite shooting will be looking to score quickly, and I don’t think either defense will be able to stop them. That’s why this total has been on the rise, and with SMU surrendering a lot of points to high level opponents and on the road in general, this one should be another high-scoring affair.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Denver/South Dakota Over 171.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 1:00 PM CT on Summit League Network
This total has actually come down a few points from the opener, and I have to disagree with the move. So do the metrics sites that project this game in the mid-to-high 170’s, and it’s going to be because of absolutely no defense. We get a Denver team that is now ranked 362nd in adjusted defensive efficiency, along with 356th in effective field goal rate allowed. That’s how you stay perfect to the over, as the Pioneers are now 15-0 to the over with the 3rd-highest plus/minus to the total.
I don’t see that changing here, especially not against another team that is allergic to defense. South Dakota checks in at 341st in adjusted defensive efficiency, 350th in effective field goal percentage allowed, and opponents are essentially setting up a layup line against them. That’s what this game should be, as neither team wants to jack up many three’s but do want to play fast and get to the rim, so all those easy buckets should add up to an over here.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Queens/North Florida Over 173.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 1:00 PM CT on ESPN+
If you thought the defense was bad in the Denver and South Dakota game, wait until you see this disaster on that end of the floor. It’ll have a different style of poor defense, but we’re still looking at a Queens team that is 339th nationally in adjusted efficiency, and a North Florida squad that 2nd-worst in the country.
This game will have a ton of three’s hoisted up though, and plenty of them will splash. Both squads are top-20 in three-point attempts and both struggle to guard the perimeter, especially Queens at 349th in three-point percentage allowed. There should be a ton of pace in this game as well, particularly since UNF allows the 6th-shortest possession length on defense. This should be the prototypical ASUN shootout, and I see them sneaking over the big number.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Oklahoma St/Iowa St Over 164.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:00 PM CT on ESPN2
I don’t know what happened in the first half of ISU’s last game at Baylor, that was a stinker by both offenses to keep it under, but this game will be different. The Cyclones returning to Hilton will prevent any more shooting woes, as will facing an Oklahoma State defense that can’t stop what they do best. The Cowboys are giving up a ton of three-point production this season, and I think ISU as the country’s 3rd-best three-point shooting team can make it rain.
They’ll get plenty of opportunities, as Oklahoma State will be pushing the pace at the country’s 5th-fastest adjusted tempo. The Cowboys are also allowing the nation’s 3rd-fastest possession length, so the Clones, who are also playing much faster this season, will get a lot of cracks at racking up tons of points. But OSU makes their living inside the arc, which has been the one vulnerability of Iowa State’s defense so far. Bottom line though is this Cowboys team hasn’t stopped anything all season, and gave up 102 in their other Big12 road game to Texas Tech, so that level of defense makes this total very reachable today.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Arkansas/Auburn Over 169.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:00 PM CT on ESPN
Yeah, I’m expecting a lot of scoring today in general, obviously, and this one has the potential to turn into the wildest of them all. There are offensive playmakers all over the floor in this matchup, plenty of pace should be coming from both squads, and the home team can’t stop a nosebleed right now. That’s how you get two teams that are a combined 20-10 to the over this season, with both clearing the total by more than 7.5 points on average.
If the pace stays high, which it should as Arkansas is 25th nationally in adjusted tempo and has been dictating that style all season, then this one will be a ton of fun. The Hogs have so elite shooters and are up to 12th in adjusted offensive efficiency, so they’ll cook an Auburn defense that’s allowed 86.1 PPG to their opponents in the top-50 of KenPom. The Tigers can score too though, especially at home and on the inside which is Arkansas’ weakness, so look for this game to get up and down the floor to clear the high total.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 24-31 (-2.42 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Extreme Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.