Locks
NFL (1 Unit) Jacksonville Jaguars First Half Team Total Over 13.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on CBS
The Jaguars are a tough matchup for the Bills in a few ways, but I think a very exploitable angle exists in the first half. Anyone paying attention to Buffalo this season has seen them start slowly and then roar back in the second half when Josh Allen is called on to be Superman. But the defense also struggles out of the gate, ranking 23rd in first half points allowed.
That will be a problem today against a Jags team that is 4th in overall scoring before halftime this season, leads the league when playing at home, and has the best record over their team total this year. This is an excellent, multi-faceted run game for Jacksonville, and they should be able to gash Buffalo’s 31st-ranked rush defense by EPA. I think two touchdowns in the first half should be easy to come by, but also remember that the Jags have a kicker who can add points from the parking lot, so I see them putting up a big number to start this game.
NFL (1 Unit) SF 49ers/Philadelphia Eagles Under 44.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 3:30 PM CT on FOX
I think both teams are going to be very intent on running the ball in this game, which is really going to burn the clock and keep scoring to a minimum. Yesterday’s games were outliers, and another might be coming in Jacksonville early today, as outdoor games in the Wild Card round go under at a 68% clip. This one, with two offenses in significant trouble, should get us back to that trend.
The Eagles are fortunate that they might be getting Lane Johnson back today, which really helps their offense, but they still want to keep it on the ground. Philly is much worse this season when they’re forced to throw, and San Fran’s 32nd-ranked defense by success rate is easy to gash on the ground. On the other side, it doesn’t look good for Trent Williams who is the key to the 49ers offense, and Kyle Shanahan has a terrible history against Vic Fangio defenses. There’s just too much pointing to this being a methodical, ground-and-pound game, so I think it stays well under the total.
NFL Sunday Wild Card Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)
1 Unit – Bayshul Tuten Over 21.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)
1 Unit – James Cook Under 80.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Trevor Lawrence Over 26.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Jakobi Meyers Over 51.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Dalton Kincaid Over 42.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Josh Allen Over 38.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
0.75 Unit – Saquon Barkley Over 81.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Saquon Barkley Longest Rush Over 17.5 Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Jalen Hurts Over 31.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Christian McCaffrey Over 5.5 Receptions (+110)
0.5 Unit – AJ Brown Over 5.5 Receptions (+100)
0.5 Unit – Dallas Goedert Over 4.5 Receptions (+120)
0.5 Unit – Dallas Goedert Over 39.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.75 Unit – Justin Herbert Over 28.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
0.75 Unit – Drake Maye Over 25.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Quentin Johnston Over 36.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
NBA (0.75 Unit) Miami Heat/OKC Thunder First Quarter Over 59.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports OK
Weird stuff is going on in the NBA right now, it’s really tough to expect much of anything to be normal, so you’d probably be smart to just ignore this pick. I can’t ignore it though, the numbers scream too loudly, as does the situation. If not now, when, for the Thunder, as they gave several stars plenty of extra rest the past few days and should be ready to take on a Heat team that’s been struggling defensively.
OKC should be able to put a big early number on Miami as the Heat allow 30.5 first quarter PPG on the road, and the Thunder are the 3rd-highes scoring first quarter team in the league. But they don’t score on Miami’s level, as the Heat lead the league in first quarter scoring and actually score more in road games. Miami will dial the pace to the max with their league-leading tempo, and are on no rest here after getting run out of Indiana last night, so a big first quarter should be coming from both offenses.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 24-27 (-2.47 Units) – Recommend: Fade
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.