Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) Golden State Warriors/Minnesota Timberwolves Under 237.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 4:30 PM CT on ABC
Neither of these teams has been playing much defense lately, but maybe that will change in a high-profile national TV spot. The Wolves should be able to get back to their defensive-oriented ways here against a Warriors team that is feeling the loss of Jimmy Butler more on the offensive end of the court.
And Golden State’s defense should be able to limit Anthony Edwards and force more mid-range shots from Minnesota, which they’re not built to make outside of Ant. The Wolves are also 13-6 to the under as favorites, along with 15-7 to the under at Target Center with the second-lowest plus/minus to the total in those games. I think this game takes on more of a playoff feel, boosting defensive effort and holding it under the total.
NBA (0.75 Unit) Miami Heat/Utah Jazz First Half Over 126 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:30 PM CT on KJZZ
The books have finally done something smart and skewed this game with a bigger total in the first half than second half, but I don’t care about the adjustment. This is one of those games where I didn’t need to look up stats, I just knew the situation and knew to expect a wild first half, but here are some of the pertinent numbers anyway.
This is a matchup of the two fastest-paced teams in the league, both teams are pretty shorthanded, and when the scrubs get a lot of run early in the game things tend to turn into a shootout. That wouldn’t be unusual for either squad as Miami leads the league in first half scoring overall, while Utah leads in home games. The Jazz are also allowing the most first half points overall and at home, while Miami is 25th in road games allowing 61.6 points on average. This is a big number but it’s big for a reason, and I’m willing to jump on the over between two teams that make wild first halves the norm.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Caly Poly Team Total Over 86.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+
I’m surprised to see Poly as a slight underdog to Fullerton in this game, as the Mustangs have been able to do whatever they want in this matchup the past two seasons. That’s when Mike DeGeorge arrived at Poly and dialed the pace up to 11, as the Mustangs have been 3rd nationally in adjusted tempo during his tenure. Fullerton has proven several times that they can’t handle that tempo, even though they’ve adopted the same style.
In the two meetings last season and one this season, Poly has gone over this total easily with 98, 100, and 94 points. Fullerton just can’t defend that pace, even though they’re now 5th in adjusted tempo themselves this season, which only gives more opportunities for Poly to score today. I think they will, as their insane three-point volume that’s 3rd in the country goes up against a defense that’s 294th in three-point percentage allowed. This is guaranteed to be a track meet as the rapidly rising total indicates, and I want to back the consistency that Poly has demonstrated in this matchup.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 24-22 (-2.12 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Extreme Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.