Locks
NFL (0.5 Unit) 2-Team Moneyline Parlay (+150; Odds via DraftKings)
New England Patriots (-205) @ Denver Broncos: 2:00 PM CT on CBS
It’s a little crazy that the Patriots were at one time this week laying 5.5 points in this game, which made Denver the largest home underdog in a conference championship game since the 1970 NFL merger. Since home dogs in the playoffs are elite against the spread, I’m not messing with that and instead going to the moneyline for a Patriots team that should move on today.
It’s just too tough a spot for poor Jarrett Stidham, as QB’s to make their first start of the season in a playoff game are 1-7 SU all time. And Drake Maye just refuses to lose in this spot, going 12-0 SU in his career when favored by 3 or more points, plus the Pats were a perfect 8-0 on the road this season. If you want to get really nuts, know that lead official Alex Kemp has seen favorites in his games go 30-3 SU the past two seasons, and I expect the favored Pats to get this win today.
LA Rams @ Seattle Seahawks (-150): 5:30 PM CT on FOX
I think this is also too difficult a spot for the Rams, who have been through the ringer in the past three weeks. They had to expend maximum effort in Week 18 to get the seed that allowed them to face the Panthers, then struggled to beat lowly Carolina, then had to go to Chicago and barely win, all to face Seattle this week. Since 2002, teams in this third-straight playoff road game situation have gone 12-30 SU, including 9-28 when listed as the underdog.
LA is also at a days off disadvantage, coming off an overtime game, and teams in that situation are 1-8 SU all time in the playoffs. Seattle just doesn’t lose when these opportunities present themselves either, capitalizing on the 12th Man to go 13-3 SU all time in home playoff games with 11 straight wins, including 3-0 in the NFC championship. The short spread is justified because this is probably the de facto Super Bowl, and the regular season meetings were decided by 1 and 2 points, so I’m taking the Seahawks to just win.
NFL Conference Championship Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)
0.5 Unit – Drake Maye Over 225.5 Passing Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Jarrett Stidham Over 208.5 Passing Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Jarrett Stidham Over 33.5 Pass Attempts (-110)
0.75 Unit – Rhamondre Stevenson Over 50.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
0.75 Unit – Jarrett Stidham Over 15.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – RJ Harvey Under 39.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
1 Unit – Hunter Henry Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Marvin Mims Over 27.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Demario Douglas Over 12.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Hunter Henry Anytime TD (+190)
0.1 Unit – Adam Trautman Anytime TD (+950)
0.1 Unit – Nate Adkins Anytime TD (+1600)
1 Unit – Ken Walker Over 83.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
1 Unit – Ken Walker Over 22.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
1 Unit – Kyren Williams Over 50.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Rasheed Shaheed Over 4.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
0.75 Unit – Puka Nacua Over 7.5 Receptions (-110)
0.75 Unit – Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 6.5 Receptions (-120)
0.25 Unit – Jaxon Smith-Njigba Longest Reception Over 28.5 Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Terrance Ferguson Longest Reception Over 11.5 Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Colby Parkinson Anytime TD (+320)
0.25 Unit – Rasheed Shahid Anytime TD (+345)
0.25 Unit – Tyler Higbee Anytime TD (+575)
0.25 Unit – Terrance Ferguson Anytime TD (+600)
NBA (0.5 Unit) Golden State Warriors/Minnesota Timberwolves Under 235.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 4:30 PM CT on ABC
Neither of these teams has been playing much defense lately, but maybe that will change in a high-profile national TV spot. The Wolves should be able to get back to their defensive-oriented ways here against a Warriors team that is feeling the loss of Jimmy Butler more on the offensive end of the court.
And Golden State’s defense should be able to limit Anthony Edwards and force more mid-range shots from Minnesota, which they’re not built to make outside of Ant. The Wolves are also 13-6 to the under as favorites, along with 15-7 to the under at Target Center with the second-lowest plus/minus to the total in those games. I think this game takes on more of a playoff feel, boosting defensive effort and holding it under the total.
NBA (1 Unit) Bam Adebayo Alt Over 19.5 Points (+100; Odds via DraftKings): 7:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports SUN
Bam has been on a tear lately, returning to his October form in recent games. He’s dropped 20-plus points in 6 of the past 7 games, with the only exception being a fluky performance at Golden State where he essentially had his worst game of the season. Even with that awful night, he’s averaging 24.0 PPG in this seven-game stretch on 46% shooting, including 44% from deep which is well above his season average. Coincidentally, this hot streak kicked off with a game against Phoenix where he dropped 29, and with the Suns playing their first game after a long road trip I think he can take advantage again.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 22-24 (-4.72 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Extreme Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.