Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) Philadelphia 76ers/NY Knicks Over 226 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:00 PM CT on ESPN
Recent trends with these teams suggest we’ll see plenty of points tonight, especially given the spot, although you’ll want to monitor the status of Joel Embiid. New York is on a back-to-back here after a high-possessions game against the Clippers last night. That makes me less worried about them being a slower-paced team this season, and has me believing the strong offenses will be the story here. With Philadelphia 6th and the Knicks 7th in offensive rating, they definitely have the firepower needed to get over this number.
That offensive strength has led the 76ers to the league’s best over percentage, and it helps that they keep seeing totals in the 220s. That over percentage gets even higher when Philly has the rest advantage over their opponent like they do tonight. New York has also trended to the over on the season, in their past 10 games, and at home. With their tired legs having to contend with one of the best shooting teams in the league, I see a higher pace and good efficiency leading to plenty of points here.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Penn St -4.5 @ Nebraska (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:30 PM CT on BTN
Fading Nebraska has become a staple for me, and I’m willing to do it again here even with the Cornhuskers back home. They’re just too injury-riddled right now to compete with decent Big Ten teams, even a Penn State squad that has struggled on the road a bit. The Nittany Lions can really score though behind excellent guard play, a much better backcourt than what Nebraska is rolling out right now.
Penn State will take and make a ton of three’s, ranking 5th in attempts and 16th in make percentage on the season. Nebraska’s defense is weak at all levels right now, and an offense that’s only managing 0.875 points per possession the last 3 games has no chance to compensate. If those three’s are going down for PSU they’ll run away in this one, just as they did in an 11-point win over a healthier Nebraska two weeks ago. The Huskers can’t seem to be booked at an appropriate price lately, and I see their 2-8 ATS run worsening today.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1067-911 ATS (+88.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.