Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) LA Clippers -7 @ Brooklyn Nets (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on NBATV
It’s easy to get distracted by the trade news impacting the Nets, or put too much stock in their improbable comeback Saturday night. But I’m not overthinking the handicap here, as this is just a bad matchup for Brooklyn, and a surging Clippers team should take advantage.
With Kawhi Leonard and Paul George playing – and they should since this is not a back-to-back spot – the Clippers are a far tougher defensive team than what the Nets faced in their big comeback. LA is finally rounding into form, and have been excellent with Kawhi and PG13, going 14-8 ATS this season when both play.
The Nets are set to be without essentially their entire core again tonight. The collection of backups are in a big letdown spot too, as home underdogs off a 20-plus point comeback win are just 2-10-1 ATS all time. Brooklyn should struggle against the three-point barrage that the Clips can unleash, as they’re just 28th in three-point percentage defense. But an excellent team at full strength against an organization in disarray should not be a fair fight, and I’ll be laying the points here as a result.
NBA (0.25 Unit) Milwaukee Bucks/Portland Trail Blazers Over 242.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on NBATV
This total opened at a high number, but saw no resistance as it blew past the artificial barrier that is the key number of 240 points. That has me believing we’ll see an offensive showcase here, which the stats and trends seem to support as well. A big key is Portland being at home, as the Blazers have the league’s third-highest plus/minus to the total in home games. Their offense is extremely efficient at the Moda Center, third-best in the NBA for home teams.
They’ll need it tonight against a Milwaukee team firing on all cylinders offensively with Khris Middleton back. The Bucks have averaged 126.6 PPG since his return, and are absolutely shredding bad defensive teams. And that’s what Portland is at home as well, owning the fourth-worst defensive efficiency mark for home teams. Injuries have left Portland with nothing inside to stop Giannis Antetokounmpo at the rim, and that should be just part of the high-efficiency offense which drives this game over the total.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Duke/Miami Over 145.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN
Duke has relied mostly on defense in their first year without Coach K, but it has not been anywhere near as strong in road games and will face a very tough test tonight. In ACC road games against competent offenses, the Blue Devils have allowed 78.8 PPG. In all road games this season, Duke is allowing just under a full point per possession, and has a field goal percentage defense that balloons significantly.
That will make it tough for them to slow down a Miami squad that’s the 13th-best shooting team in the country. The Hurricanes struggle defensively with what Duke wants to do on offense though. The Blue Devils want to score inside, and Miami happens to be 307th in percentage of opponent points inside the arc. The Canes are also one of the few teams in the country whose defensive efficiency gets worse at home, so I see both offenses leveraging their strengths to create an over here.
NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) Texas @ Kansas -4 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN
Different model projections have this game with a slight difference of opinion on how much Kansas wins by, although the range of results all have the final within a couple possessions. So it should be a fantastic game between two teams that are similarly-styled, but I refuse to go against Kansas in a bounce-back spot returning home to Phog Allen. The offense was ugly for KU on Saturday, but the Jayhawks have not been good offensively on the road and Iowa State will do that to you.
The Kansas offense has been much stronger at home this season though, and the Texas offense has not been great on the road so far. The Longhorns also expended a lot of energy in erasing a 14-point deficit at K-State on Saturday, and to have enough left in the tank to sweep the Kansas road trip would be quite a feat. I’m willing to count on a bounce back from the Jayhawks behind improved offense, plus the benefit of the home crowd in one of the toughest environments in the country.
NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) Weber St/Northern Colorado Over 141.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars) 10:00 PM CT on ESPNU
If you’re a devoted fan of the Bad Beats segment, you should know that things tend to get weird in Greeley, CO, site of this game. The Northern Colorado Bears haven’t been very good this season and it’s usually the defense letting them down, as they own the 18th-worst defensive efficiency mark in the country. Weber State ranks just 160th themselves, with significant struggles on the road, and this should be a tough situational spot for them.
The Wildcats have to travel to high elevation after playing a double-overtime game Saturday night, putting a big strain on that defense. These teams also know how to score on each other, combining for 153 points earlier this year and averaging 158.7 the past three meetings. And if the Greeley weirdness shows up tonight then late shots, lots of fouling, and any number of overtimes is in the cards. But I don’t think I’ll need to rely on that as tired, poor defenses lead to getting this over the total.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1067-913 ATS (+87.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.