Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves Team Total Over 112.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North
I wish this meant I was confident that the Wolves are going to get another win over the Nuggets tonight, or even cover the spread. Sadly, neither of those are things I’d be in a hurry to bet on, as the Nuggets have been an unstoppable machine at home this season. That’s mostly due to their elite offense being extremely efficient, but that always creates more opportunity for the opponent as we’ve seen in the three meetings between these squads on the season.
It’s allowed the Wolves, with their up-tempo style, to average 123.3 points in games against Denver this season, going over this team total each time. While the biggest number they dropped was on Sunday against some backups, the starters that were missing aren’t exactly known for their defensive prowess. I think this number is held down somewhat by the Wolves having issues scoring on the road this season. But they know how to fill it up against Denver so the matchup matters here, and I’ll count on their offense to take care of its part tonight.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Rutgers +4.5 @ Indiana (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:30 PM CT on BTN
This is a terrible scheduling spot for Indiana to deal with, and it very easily could result in them getting caught napping. The only thing tougher than facing Rutgers after taking down your top-ranked in-state rival would be if this was a road game for the Hoosiers. But the Scarlet Knights don’t care where they play, and are a matchup problem for Indiana from a stylistic perspective.
Rutgers is 13th in the country for two-point percentage defense, which is perfect against an Indiana team overly reliant on playing through the post. That was the difference-maker in the first meeting, where Indiana only made 11 shots inside the arc in a 15-point Rutgers runaway. This game will likely be played at a crawl as well, giving an advantage to the team catching points, so I’ll take a shot with Rutgers that they’ll give IU a tough time in this letdown spot.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Marquette +4.5 @ UConn (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:30 PM CT on FS1
I can’t think of a top-10 team ever receiving less attention than what’s being paid to Marquette right now. The quiet rise through the rankings for the Golden Eagles makes them a little undervalued here against a UConn team that’s attracted public attention all season. But it’s been a rough stretch for the Huskies after looking so dominant early in the year, and their only wins in the past month have come against the 3 teams at the bottom of the Big East standings.
Included in there is a loss at Marquette where the Golden Eagles showed off the nation’s 3rd-best offense in adjusted efficiency. And that offense travels, as Marquette is 4th in the country for offensive efficiency on the road. That keeps them in every game, as they’ve shown even in their five losses this season by an average of 4.0 points. Marquette is also killing it against the number lately, 8-2 ATS their past 10 compared to 3-7 for UConn, plus Shaka Smart is 48-25-2 ATS as a road dog in his coaching career. I’ll take the points here with the underappreciated underdog.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) 2-Team 5.5 Point Teaser (-110): Rutgers +10/Marquette +10
I don’t usually tease college basketball as it’s a high-variance sport, and I don’t recommend getting in the habit. But as we approach the stretch run of the season, that variance shows up in the form of tighter games than expected as opposed to blowouts. And it’s been a wild season rife with upsets already even though February just started, with more of them sure to come.
If I’m going to tease college basketball then, it’s going to be with live underdogs already catching more than a possession’s worth of points. That puts both Rutgers and Marquette in the sweet spot, and being able to get both of them at this bigger number really jumps out. Neither team tends to lose by wide margins, and both have styles well-suited to staying inside a big number. Give me both dogs at padded spreads in what should be hard-fought games.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) 2-Team Moneyline Parlay (+140; Odds via Caesars)
Dayton @ VCU -180: 6:00 PM CT on CBSSN
The Siegel Center will be rocking for this one with VCU returning home after a couple big road wins. One of the best home court environments in the country will help the Rams here against a team I simply don’t trust. Dayton has all the talent in the world but they squander it on almost a nightly basis, going just 3-3 straight up with some lucky wins after an excellent start to the season.
The Flyers are also dealing with injuries to both starting guards, who are iffy to play tonight. That could make facing the pressure VCU’s backcourt can generate, in such a hostile environment, a big factor in this game. Dayton was without its starting point guard for the first meeting, and VCU got a win despite a very poor performance from leading scorer Ace Baldwin. While this might be a tight game between two defensive-oriented teams, I think VCU asserts its usual A10 dominance in a win tonight.
Nevada @ New Mexico -180: 9:30 PM CT on FS1
This is a revenge game for New Mexico after they fell in double overtime at Nevada last month in one of the best games of the year. While I think Nevada is a fairly strong team, their results have been very predictable this season. The Wolfpack are very strong at home behind an excellent offense, but that scoring ability fails them on the road and will make The Pit an even tougher place to play.
That’s where New Mexico shines, as the Lobos have lost just once on their home floor this season. This is one of the best shooting teams in the country, and they know how to score on Nevada. If New Mexico is also able to score in transition behind their fast tempo, they’ll build a lead here that Nevada’s poor road offense won’t be able to catch up against. Home court will matter in a big way here, so I like the Lobos to get their revenge.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball Eastern Michigan/Buffalo Over 161 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+
This should be a 40-minute layup line, plain and simple. Neither team cares one bit about defense, but particularly Eastern Michigan who is 359th in defensive efficiency. The Eagles are allowing an astronomical 1.135 points per possession on the road this season, and will have to contend with a Buffalo team that plays at the fastest pace in the country.
That should create a game where the Bulls are getting plenty of easy buckets in transition, but giving plenty of extra possessions to an EMU offense that’s heating up. With Emoni Bates and Noah Farrahkan finally clicking as a duo the Eagles can score with anyone, which we’ve seen with them averaging 83.3 points the past 4 games. With the expected pace in this game, efficiency won’t have to be as high to reach this total, and I think awful defense will push it over the number.
Tiny Nick is 1070-915 ATS (+87.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.