Locks
NBA (0.75 Unit) OKC Thunder/Minnesota Timberwolves First Quarter Over 57 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:30 PM CT on ESPN
The first quarters of Wolves games against quality opponents have been flying over, particularly at Target Center, and I think this should be a repeat of when OKC came to town just before the break. That game managed to stay well under the full-game total, but the first quarter erupted for 61 points which has definitely been a theme for Minnesota.
The Wolves have ramped up their early scoring in recent weeks, and tonight will face a Thunder squad that is 4th in first quarter scoring. These teams are actually both elite first quarter scoring defenses, which explains a lower number here. But all the money is coming in on the over which shows smart money recognizes the new way the Wolves have played to start games, and I think it continues tonight.
NBA (0.75 Unit) NY Knicks @ Boston Celtics -3 First Quarter (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on ABC
The Knicks are good, but have you noticed the degree to which they throw up on themselves against the best teams out there? In 6 games against the Celtics, Cavs, and Thunder, they’re 0-6 and the beatings have started early. The Knicks are 0-5-1 against this first quarter spread in those games with an average 10.5 point deficit after the opening quarter.
The Celtics have had their issues covering big numbers all season as the market prices them to the moon seemingly every game. But they are still 3rd in the NBA for average first quarter margin in home games at plus-3.8 points. And a national TV game like this is a good spot to take another lopsided early lead since they’ve been up by 19 and 11 after a quarter in the two previous meetings with New York.
NBA (0.75 Unit) Memphis Grizzlies/Cleveland Cavaliers First Quarter Over 61.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN
These two teams go wild to start games, and this total should be several points higher than it is. With a full-game total touching 250 points, I expected the number here to be much steeper, especially in a game where you have the top two first quarter scoring teams. These teams are actually tied at 31.6 first quarter points on average, and are two of the top three over teams this season in general. So points are coming in this game, but I’ll isolate the timeframe when both offenses are at their best at a number that I consider a big discount.
NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Siena First Half Team Total Over 36.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 1:00 PM CT on ESPN+
This whole Siena at home trend is getting ridiculous after the Saints dropped 94 on Friday night including 53 before halftime. That was against Niagara, who has an awful defense, but the defense doesn’t get much more awful than Canisius who comes to town today. The Golden Griffins have the second-worst adjusted defensive efficiency mark in the whole country, and they love giving up big numbers before halftime.
Canisius is 328th in first half points allowed and 355th on the road at 40.7 points per game, which includes 38.9 in conference road games against the mostly weak offenses of the MAAC. But Siena is not a weak offense in their own building, they average 35.8 before halftime at home, and they should continue to get whatever they want against this truly awful defense.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Xavier First Half Team Total Over 34.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 1:00 PM CT on FS1
Xavier’s at-large hopes for next month are precarious at best, with most projections putting them in the last four in or first four out range. So they need statement wins, and they can get one today against a Seton Hall team they’ve already dominated this season. The Musketeers rolled by 22 on New Year’s Eve as they got started early with a 44-point first half outburst.
They got a lot of production from beyond the arc in that game, which is easy against Seton Hall, and I think a Xavier team shooting three’s at the country’s 16th-best percentage will have more success today. That will help get plenty of early points on the board again, which has been a consistent theme for Big East teams against Seton Hall this year. The Musketeers should respond to the urgency of the moment in this one, and put a big first half number up behind maximum effort.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Ohio St @ UCLA -3.5 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:45 PM CT on CBS
This is likely to be an absolute buzzsaw for Ohio State to walk into, and I think it gets ugly right away today. UCLA collapsing late against Minnesota this week had to enrage Mick Cronin who has already put his team on blast this season, and the Bruins have responded with big turnarounds. This team is sneaky good when they try, and I’m expecting that effort to be there today.
UCLA is also just a really good first half team, ranked 10th in average first half margin this season including 7th at home with plus-13.3 points on average. They’re also 6-2 ATS against this particular first half number in Big10 home games. Compare that to Ohio State who has a minus-5.8 average first half margin on the road this season and has been blown out early when visiting the top teams in the conference. I think that happens here in this motivated home spot on national TV for the Bruins.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick has gained +70.4 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.